200NL Anonymous tables
155 BB effective
Hero is BTN with Ac Qs
CO opens 3BB
Hero 3bets to 9BB
Flop (27 BB) 6d 3s 2s
Hero bets 9 BB
Turn (45 BB) 6d 3s 2s [4s]
Hero bets 32 BB
River (109 BB) 6d 3s 2s 4s [5h]
Hero shoves 105BB
I shoved here to get the BB player off the chop. I thought the Qs was a good blocker to a lot of his flushes like AQ, KQ, QJ, all of which he could cold call the 3bet with preflop. I also thought that I could discount some of villain's flushes since they should probably donk-jam this river with a flush. Is this play too aggressive or does it make sense?
EV (check back) = 109/2 * p (villain doesn't have flush)
EV (shove) = 109 * p (villain doesn't have flush) * p (villain folds without flush) + 109/2 * p (villain doesn't have flush) * p(villain calls without flush) - 105 * p (villain has flush)
March 16, 2019 | 10:21 p.m.
NL 200 Anonymous table, 150 BB effective
Hero (HJ) has [Qc Qh]
LJ (250 BB) raises 3BB
Hero (150 BB) 3bets to 10BB
LJ (150 BB) raises to 32.5BB
Flop (98 BB) Jd Th 5d
LJ bets 29 BB
Turn (185 BB) Jd Th 5d [Jc]
BTN jams 90 BB
I ended up folding because I think BTN is underbluffing in this spot. His preflop range is hard to know, but I estimate it's mostly AA-99, AQs, AK at varying frequencies. BTN's range becomes so strong after overcalling the flop that I think it's very likely BTN is underbluffing. The only possible bluffs he can have are AdKd, AdQd but he can have 3 combos of TT, 1 combo of JJ, and 6 combos of AA for value, as well as some trips if he's calling very loose preflop. I'm don't have the equity to call vs. this estimated range so I folded.
Feb. 24, 2019 | 2:09 a.m.
Tough River spot. Hard to find bluffs for villain here, should I call or fold river?
50NL, 260 BB effective
Hero is LJ with [Ad Jc]
Hero (LJ) opens 2.5 BB
Flop (8 BB) Ac Jd 4s
Hero bets 4 BB
Turn (16 BB) Ac Jd 4s [Qc]
Hero bets 12 BB
BTN raises to 32BB
River (80 BB) Ac Jd 4s Qc [Qd]
BTN bets 51 BB
Nov. 10, 2018 | 4 a.m.
HJ (125 BB) raises to 3.5BB
CO (44 BB) calls
folds to Hero (150BB) in BB with [Ah Qh]
Hero raises to 15.5BB
Flop (35 BB) Qs 8c 3c
Hero bets 15 BB
Turn (65 BB) Qs 8c 3c [6c]
HJ bets 29 BB
River (123 BB) Qs 8c 3c 6c [Jh]
HJ jams 65 BB
Nov. 4, 2018 | 7 p.m.
I've been working on my game by studying a lot of hands in solvers recently. In a few hands I've noticed situations where the solver recommends that the preflop raiser has a very low frequency flop cbet (10% or less), despite having an EV advantage on the given board. This result was surprising to me. I understand that flop cbet percentage isn't strictly a function of how high your EV is, but I wouldn't expect such a low cbet with an EV advantage. I'll give an example: 3Bet pot BTN vs. CO As Ts 9d. Here, the solver result I got was that BTN has an EV advantage of 11.6 vs. 9.9, however BTN should check 91% on this flop. Can somebody help explain this to me? I'll post the preflop ranges that I'm using below:
I gave BTN the option to bet 1/3 or 3/4 pot on the flop.
Nov. 1, 2018 | 9:23 p.m.
Thanks for the response. I'd never thought about blocking villain's x/r bluffing range before when bluffing IP on the river. Pretty interesting concept, since we don't usually think of villain's bluffs as a portion of their "continues" that we want to block.
Aug. 14, 2018 | 6:30 p.m.
1. At 17:45 you say that in ICM spots that force players to play tight, an adjustment should be for players to use small bet sizes. I'm trying to understand the math behind this adjustment.
Is the idea here that a) the negative EV of losing X chips is greater than the EV of gaining X chips, so players should fold when given marginally +chipEV calls, thus b) to make villain indifferent, you have to bet a size that makes their call sufficiently +chipEV, rather than how we want to make a call 0 chipEV in a cash game?
2. At 39:25 you say that the best bluffs are lower cards and give the example that on the board of [6s 7d Qc As 2s], 3s 3x is a better river bluff than Kh Jh. Does this effect of wanting low cards hold independently of having a spade in your hand? It seems like Kh Jh would be a better bluff than 3h 3d because KJ block some strong Qx and Ax combos.
As always this was an excellent video, thank you for taking the time to make it.
Aug. 10, 2018 | 8:52 p.m.
Awesome video and organized explanation of your thought process for each hand.
The one part I have trouble understanding is in hand 3 why flop x/raise frequencies increase vs. the nodelocked strong cbet range. Can you help explain the the intuition behind this strategic adjustment?
Aug. 9, 2018 | 10:51 p.m.
25:47 In the table on the left, what would your river bluff range be? It's hard to imagine many offsuit hands with a diamond that you can show up with here given preflop and flop action, since you aren't flatting many offsuit Ax preflop and those hands won't play the flop as a bet/call with much frequency. Would you want to shove with a hand like 87s/76s since you block 97s and 77 and can get villain to fold an overpair? Or would you rather call 7x and shove air like 65s?
Aug. 8, 2018 | 1:19 a.m.
Maybe a stronger player or RIO pro can chime in here, but I think you guys are pretty clearly wrong. From my understanding ATs is a standard hand to call a 3Bet with MP vs. CO, and will be winning with strong postflop play.
Aug. 7, 2018 | 1:29 p.m.
yeah, the river was a shove. I was surprised to see villain use such a polarized bet size on the river after checking back the turn, but I suppose it could make some sense. I imagine his thinking is that most of my A9+ will be x/raising flop or betting river so I'm relatively capped after river check. This means he can shove with AK/AQ and get value from worse Ax.
Aug. 6, 2018 | 3:11 p.m.
I wouldn't always x/raise my nut flushes on the flop. In fact, I would mostly bet them on the flop, and then when I check the nut flush, I would probably raise only about a third of the time. On the flop with my nut flush draws, I would bet most of them, and mostly raise the lowest nut flush draws like Ad4x-Ad2x when I check these hands.
As played, I still like the river overbet because villain will get to the river with a lot of 2 pair, some KdQx/JdQx, KdX, and sets.
Aug. 5, 2018 | 4:16 p.m.
CO wins $95.75
Rake is $5.00
Aug. 5, 2018 | 3:58 p.m.
SB: $155.41 (Hero)
BB wins and shows a flush, Queen high.
BB wins $230.00
Rake is $4.00
Aug. 5, 2018 | 3:46 p.m.
Great video - it was very easy to follow with you recapping the action on each hand whenever you switched tables. A couple questions:
9:50: What are your x/raise bluffs in this spot? Would you just pick some of your worse Jx/9x without a heart?
18:12 What bluffs (if any) would you use here on the river? In the video you say that you don't bluff because villain's range is very strong, and he rarely has a weak hand. Given that you are checking Ks 3s, which is one of your best bluff hands in this spot because 1) blocks AK, 2) no diamond, 3) near bottom of your range, does this mean you are checking your whole range on this river?
Aug. 3, 2018 | 7:11 p.m.
Could there be a benefit for rec players if pros can play more tables? The more tables somebody plays, the lower their win-rate at each table will be. The relevant question of what's better for recs is comparing the marginal win-rate of a pro's 6th table vs. another rec's first table, rather than just saying "pros have higher win-rates so a rec would rather play against a rec". It's likely that a pro's 6th table win-rate would still be better than a rec's win-rate, but there must be some (higher) table limit where these two win-rates will intersect, e.g. playing against a 24-tabling player is better than a 1-tabling rec because it's too difficult to focus on 24 tables at once.
Aug. 2, 2018 | 6:47 p.m.
If zoom tables aren't available at launch, than a 4-table cap is way too low. For a player with reasonable online experience, 4 non-zoom tables feels very slow and is a lot less fun than having more tables.
Aug. 2, 2018 | 4:42 p.m.
Loved the video format and analysis of exploitative adjustments that each of the players were making. It would be great to see future parts of this series analyzing Super High Roller Cash Game Episodes 6-9 from PokerGo. These episodes had lineups comprised mostly of elite pros, and would lend themselves to more technical analysis of the players' strategies.