deal8888

Tc5d table 2 @4.20

His cbet range 6x 4x 9x Tj 8x Overpairs 2pair+ then air, so assume nearly all air folds and were now playing the turn vs the stated range, the 4c turn makes it more likely he has 6x, then 9x and TJ that may or not call once more. Let's assume say 30% of 9x and TJ peel. We then get a 9 river so now the most likely hand left is a 6 or the x of time he has TJ and all 2pair+. We then give him a price that could call 100% of the time? Not sure what street to add in the 8x folds, some players will let it go turn and then river should be folding easily including overpairs.

Could you explain more on this hand im really interested as i would never flop raise btm pair in any spot, i see above you stated one benefit we get to barrel paired run outs that a polar range doesnt have. You say your 10 turns don't need protection i assume because we alot of Tx turns that favor us, how much did this influence your decision to raise flop.

Table 1 @ 24mins Td7s

Considering our range advantage and the range the villain and us share, do you still think as you did in the video? We should scale back our bet size on the K turn. I think i prefer the BXB line with the majority of my Ax in this spot so i agree its a strong turn but for my betting range i think we do better than villain. Looks like a nice spot for me to run some sims. X amount of hands below could be in flat or 3bet depending on villain ofc

Range advantage
99 JJ AA KK AK QTs AJ

Shared rangee
A9 J9 QTo Ax

Villian hands we dont have
KJo K9o

Table 3 @39mins K9ss, Assume we are the BB

The 2nd pair heavily favours our range and clearly a great spot to donk the river, I assume top pair always pays. It should be easy enough to fill in the air range with non showdown hands, but how often do we donk the river on the trips?

If always then we don't have trips when we check, should we consider using a mixed strategy, say 80% of rivers we bet and choose the 20% we check in spots were trips is less nutted like flush rivers?

Can i suggest you do a video on "How to adjust to a high 3bet%". Just as you have done here would be great, examining the diff strats and some hand examples in how you played vs a high or low polar/non polar range.

Great work

Impressive reply thank you.

I find this really interesting as most of the regs i play are over folding a large amount in this spot and i want to just probe turns relentlessly, but it feels wrong when i use non equity hands as i judge others harshly when they choose a bad bluffing hand in any spot. Only following through on the best run outs with these probes sounds great, i will be trying this out.

Yes i agree i would just use the bluff polar side of my cbet range and check the rest. I like how you have went the step further to break down his range, i usaly just see a non equity bluff and go into call down mode as i assume thier auto over bluffing.

Table 2 @ 34.25 KQo

We have 97s J9s QQ TT QTs AA KK AQ and KQo in our 3bet range that takes this line, KQo seems to be the worst made value hand we actually have. What would be the worst value hand you call off QTs?

How would the info we now have that he will shove turns on us change your turn barreling strat, would you consider x/c line with AJcc AKhh on the turn if you choose to cbet flop? Same question for hands like 75s 45s KJs.

Table 2 @ 8.11 7Thh

Do you think if this hand was shown down, it would alert him to the fact he might be over folding to turn probes? What would you think if a random villain chose this type hand to probe bet the turn vs you ie no equity

Ah nice mate thank you appreciated

Hey Eddie yes i have been looking at it, i was wondering can you get a trail i did not see it on thier site?

I do think hes likely to call it off as well, maybe i just prefer the lower variance route. I think we get a ton of information on the river and can easily hero non completing rivers but you got good reads on the villain so i like your play. I would take blocking the T as a positive, blocking all his value 2pair hands. Results?

"but blocks a bunch of value hands (better then like AA)."

I didnt understand what you meant by this? Do you mean were blocking his value hands like QT?

Tough spot FiveBet we could of got a better turn card but prob the best of the worst. Im not a fan of shoving the turn, in nearly all spots i will call the turn and play the river. You seem to have strong reads on his range right now so we should use that and play some perfect poker on the river, keep him in the pot with his draws and commit him to bluff shoving some rivers. We also keep our turn range protected for when we have our nut combos.

I agree with our hand being the next best and we also block no draws at all which is nice, i just think we do better range vs range when we call, if we shove and he calls us? We could be in very bad shape.

issue is 88/66 block bluffs too

88/66 Without a spade, after we fill up our equity with boats,st8s and Ax we might not even have to include such hands i just haven't done the work to know this

you defend 22-44 and you dont have off suit 86 98 96 64 in your range? 26.5% seems like small defending range..... also whats ur thoughts on what i said above about raising top or ur folding range?

This is my flatting range to the cbet, my BB flat range is 589 combos so i took 60% of that, hands that are 3bet were not included and hands that were folded pre, so i cant include 86o 96o 64o when i dont defend them. I missed 89o good spot.

"i think raising is pretty nice as we do have decent equity (20% versus Ax and 13% versus most 2pr). On this particular board, the top of our folding range has decent equity so i think raising with it makes some sense."

This is something i never do im kind of still 2008 poker with my fundamentals, would this be referred to as a value bluff? I need to do more study on these spots. Just of top of my head i would say if a reg done this vs me that would just add a ton of bluff combos to any spot and i would be more willing to call down, and stack off lighter. Especially if i don't block any of the marginal value hands, if i had one of the marginal hands i would think your more likely nut/draw heavy.

"Folding turn is probably netting you more $ than bet/calling and folding 85%-90% rivers."
Great point

"One aspect is that this line is probably taken by all his 32 straight combos (who isn't defending 63o nowadays) but probably doesn't take all his rivered full house combos with this line so ranking 74/75 as the nut bluff catcher can be wrong."

With this observation 88 and 66 would be much better bluff catchers and would come into the % before 74o

@FIVEbetbLUFF I take back saying all those hands "Def" fit that range, i just done some work and i would be defending 310 combos on this flop vs the 2/3 bet size and Q2 Q3s did not make the turn so i was wrong about that. Heres what my flat range would look like if your interested;

http://postimg.org/image/mpyng5r3b/

Yeah though its trolling me atm every time i filter all dates it shows me less and less hands lol HEM!. I do play lower than you as well so i imagine your volume is harder to come by. Recently i was looking at cbet success on diff boards so comes in handy to have a decent sample

Basically just reviewed every turn i had ever been raised, and played alot. My HU database has around 1.2mill hands by now i think. So its pretty good for analyzing current spots

Yea well in a spot like this were we have to stretch outselves to find bluffs i think thats a strong tell we should prob lean towards folding. In saying that ofc Mush cbets 2/3 pot on flop so 60% of hands should be defending the cbet and all those hands should be flated and most def fit the 60% range. I agree Kx might just call turn alot aswell. I really dont agree with some of the hands you choose like 85 and 87, any hand with a pair just calls or folds. If mush had of bet turn normal size of 2/3 3/4 pot every gutter with pair flats again IMO. Depends on the villian some regs never bluff with a piar, others do but still must be aware how many bluffs it will ad any situation.

example of this range in this spot would Q2, Q3 Q8 spades, K2 K3 K6 K8 spades, 89o and with one spade

@FIVEbetbLUFF Yea i totally missed the bet size on turn, im pretty inclined to just fold turn now lol. The thing about this spot in general is i would fold nearly 100% of my range, then i spent weeks studying the range people raise here and actually found it was a popular bluffing spot with mid stakes HU regs, i should say semi-bluff spot extremely rare to find a pure air raise.

A574ss

I just noticed we potted the turn :/ I think that would make 2piar combos even less likely. I think the most important factor here is actually the board texture, it creates a situation on the turn where their are a lot less possible draws as most include a pure float hand like K of spade, Q of spade 6. And as @Disharmonist mentioned which i agree with the pair + flushdraws will just call again and thats most of the combos @FriendlyCritter 65s, 76s, 87s had in the bluffing range.

I think that was to optimistic of me luke in hindsight

"What I assume is that people rarely or never balance their turn raising range with bluffs / semibluffs on the turn, just because it is very costly"

Flop value hand check raises for nearly all regs have moved to the turn and river, so these are now much more commonly bluffed spots, i agree before that this was not the case and turn X/raises were 90%+ nut hands maybe a lot higher. You can see why this is a great bluff spot as your prepared to fold a hand like 2pair and i assume every hand non set or nutted.

Some combo work on the possible amount of turned draws he could have based on his flop cbet fold % and his 3bet range/flat pre range. Not reading forum again while playing 2 distracting :)

1/2 pot river so we need to decide our 33% of bluff catchers, i usually start with top equity down so our made st8s and boats, then Ax. Then i will choose the best hands that don't block bluffs and hands that block value. 74 with no spades, block flop slow play set and the turn 44.

Looking at his stats i use HEM so done my best to make out what they mean.
Raise 8 flop and 14 turn would suggest to me that he does raise his 2pair and sets at some point in these two streets, in my exp some players will never raise any 2pair here on turn. If he does raise 55 A5, A7 on flop x amount of time were left with largely draws and turned st8s.

Small sample but i still cant see how is river call is so high with these raise stats, correct me if i read those stats wrong it would change my decision alot. I get the feeling this guy would bluff the river if he ended up here with a missed draw. So i would just decide if 74o fits in my 33%, personally i really like our hand. Still playing so tried to get that down fast.

Really interesting spot will come back when i finish playing

Great advice! Agreed with all

Did you find a way to group the boards to reduce the number or the "shades" :)

yes i should filter my whole sample for just one card flush draws not all when working with off-suit hand, nice spot