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dnice

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Post | dnice posted in PLO: OOP iN 3 bet pot

What would you say should be the general strategy when 3 betting heads up with a hand like kk or qq then dealing with a board like 883 with a flush draw or 779 rainbow. Do you c bet 1/3 pot with entire range, or do we check call flop then evaluate turn. My opponent was a guy who raises about 75% preflop, never folds to 3 bets, folds to flop and turn c bets 37 and 38 percent, and he stabs flop and turn 50 and 57%. In both situations I checked the flop, on the 883 flush draw board, I check called the flop, then on the turn the opponent potted into me so I shoved. We started with 140 bb in this example, he bet under 2/3 pot on flop then potted turn so I shoved thinking he had the flush draw

In the other example the 779 rainbow board, I checked, opponent bet 2/3 pot, we started at 84bb so I check raised him thinking hes stabbing too often. What would be the correct plays in these 2 instances given the fact he doesnt fold much on the flop and turn and he stabs often. He folds 83% on the river after triple barrel, raises flop 21% and he follows his bet vs missed bets with a 50% river shove

Jan. 11, 2020 | 6:46 p.m.

What would you say should be the general strategy when 3 betting heads up with a hand like kk or qq then dealing with a board like 883 with a flush draw or 779 rainbow. Do you c bet 1/3 pot with entire range, or do we check call flop then evaluate turn. My opponent was a guy who raises about 75% preflop, never folds to 3 bets, folds to flop and turn c bets 37 and 38 percent, and he stabs flop and turn 50 and 57%. In both situations I checked the flop, on the 883 flush draw board, I check called the flop, then on the turn the opponent potted into me so I shoved. We started with 140 bb in this example, he bet under 2/3 pot on flop then potted turn so I shoved thinking he had the flush draw

In the other example the 779 rainbow board, I checked, opponent bet 2/3 pot, we started at 84bb so I check raised him thinking hes stabbing too often. What would be the correct plays in these 2 instances given the fact he doesnt fold much on the flop and turn and he stabs often. He folds 83% on the river after triple barrel, raises flop 21% and he follows his bet vs missed bets with a 50% river shove

Jan. 7, 2020 | 9:10 a.m.

Hey guys I was wondering about the EV adj stat in holdem manager. It seems that no matter what I run under EV every year by large amounts and I was wondering if this is normal. For my career of 1.1 million hands I've made 177K but it says I shouldve made 278K. EVery year I'm running under EV except for 1 year in the 5 year sample I have and that was only over by 4k while most years its under by 30K plus.

I believe most of this discrepency in my sample comes from 5/10 and above where I've played 168k hands and lost 59k when I shouldve won 55k . Just looking at 5/10 NL and PLO combined in 160k hands I've won 18K but I shouldve made 92K . Is it normal running 74 buyins under EV in a decent sample like this or is just very bad luck? Overall I've demonstrated a positive winrate but running 100k under EV has had a huge impact on the career as I havent made much money and now my bankroll is in a danger zone. What do you guys suggest from these numbers.

July 17, 2018 | 11:59 a.m.

Yeah that makes sense. What material would you recommend that I study. I really want to improve my winrate against recreational players HU as this is the most lucrative spot in the game, but also want to make sure I'm not spewing money vs Regs or even getting myself into crazy spots vs good players while trying to build up a solid roll. Right now I can see that getting 3 bet by a good player how to play hands like aj or aq in these spots is a big problem for me as they often bet 1/3 pot then if I calll with ace high they barrel 2/3 pot on the turn and I wind up throwing money away, or sometimes I may try to counter them by shoving flush draws or even shoving hands like 99 preflop as when I call the 3 bet they barrel me off and if theres a 10 high flop or more I often call 2 bets then fold the river or if I call them down they stack me. Also playing OOP blind vs blind the good player is able to barrel me off my equity since I cant call down profitably. Any good videos or material on situations like this where good players can exploit would be appreciated. Thanks

March 27, 2018 | 4:19 a.m.

Post | dnice posted in NLHE: Getting Better at HU NL

Hey guys, I wanted to talk about a topic that's pretty important to anyone looking to maximize profits, playing hu vs recreational or bad players. I feel that this is probably the biggest source of profit in the game as you can have double digit bb/100 winrates vs these players. I know a lot of hu videos out there are about playing tough regs HU but I wanted to share something I've learned and have others share as well.

I feel that it all starts with learning what GTO is, then find where our opponent is deviating from GTO and find exploits. This can be done by creating a specific HU hud then finding where our opponent is leaking in different spots. For example if your opponent is betting flop a lot but not betting the turn we can float his cbet then bet the river profitably if we see he folds to river probes often. Or if he's bet folding too often we can check raise our bluffs then check call our good hands.

What are some other tips you guys have about beating bad players and exploiting leaks. Are there any good material that you recommend to improve your hu game vs these players. Any good books or videos here? Also what types of strategies do you use when trying to game select or reject. What threshold do you use to decide whether to play or not play someone? How about when you play on sites where there are no hu tables, when the bad player sits your table then 5 seconds later 2 regs are in position on him, do you continue to play or do you leave? I play in a small player pool so this often happens but there are times when hardly anyone is online then a random guy might sit you and you often can stack him within 10 minutes without reg interference. As far as career management how do you allow the wins to add up to consistent profit over time without giving money back to the better players or tilting it off? Hopefully this leads to a good discussion

March 26, 2018 | 9:13 p.m.

Hey guys, I wanted to talk about a topic that's pretty important to anyone looking to maximize profits, playing hu vs recreational or bad players. I feel that this is probably the biggest source of profit in the game as you can have double digit bb/100 winrates vs these players. I know a lot of hu videos out there are about playing tough regs HU but I wanted to share something I've learned and have others share as well.

I feel that it all starts with learning what GTO is, then find where our opponent is deviating from GTO and find exploits. This can be done by creating a specific HU hud then finding where our opponent is leaking in different spots. For example if your opponent is betting flop a lot but not betting the turn we can float his cbet then bet the river profitably if we see he folds to river probes often. Or if he's bet folding too often we can check raise our bluffs then check call our good hands.

What are some other tips you guys have about beating bad players and exploiting leaks. Are there any good material that you recommend to improve your hu game vs these players. Any good books or videos here? Also what types of strategies do you use when trying to game select or reject. What threshold do you use to decide whether to play or not play someone? How about when you play on sites where there are no hu tables, when the bad player sits your table then 5 seconds later 2 regs are in position on him, do you continue to play or do you leave? I play in a small player pool so this often happens but there are times when hardly anyone is online then a random guy might sit you and you often can stack him within 10 minutes without reg interference. As far as career management how do you allow the wins to add up to consistent profit over time without giving money back to the better players or tilting it off? Hopefully this leads to a good discussion :)

March 26, 2018 | 9:12 p.m.

Very good advice, thanks a lot. One more thing, I see that for holdem I"m making 74 dollars an hour . 4-6 max plo winrate has been around 10 bb/100. I've been playing and studying plo for 2 years so I know the game pretty good just not doing well hu at all. I did some research and found a sweet spot showing that 3-6 tables is ideal as far as winrate and hourly..

Also Very strangely my overall nl and plo winrate at 400 to 1k non hu games is 10.4 but at 100 and 200 nl and plo non hu its 4.85 about a 200k sample of each

Am I really up against it with needing this 8-12k a month. I definitely agree that reducing variance is the biggest issue. I'm currently on a big downswing, Since Jan 1st Ive played 55k hands and I'm down 2.6K but should be down over 6K . Any ideas on getting back some mojo. Would something like only playing the worst of the worst players hu be a good idea to reduce variance sitting on the computer 8 hours a day waiting for the biggest fish to come. I dont really play long hours of poker Ive been playing 2 hours then if its not going well I quit. Do I really need to grind out the hours to be successful with this? THanks

March 25, 2018 | 1:23 a.m.

Thanks Phil, I appreciate the feedback. I put together a budget made some estimates, but everything really came out to around 7K with 3k of this is loans that will be paid back within 2 years. Would it be safe to assume that I really need to make close to double the monthly nut say 12k or so in order to account for variance and break even streaks so that the BR is increasing as well as savings to build 6 months worth of expenses and taxes?

For plo I'm actually winning 9.8bb./100 4 to 6 max with all in EV, but I'm losing -4bb/100 at hu plo. Despite this, I feel that these are probably the juciest games with the worst players so I really want to focus on learning this format as its my biggest weakness. Any ideas on how to get better at beating recreational players in HU PLO? I have a pretty good Hud developed now and I feel good playing with the players who 3bet 25%+ as I can just tighten up my open raising, call with connected suited hands spike 2 pair or pair plus draw and shove and they call too often or 4 bet akkx or even hands like ajt8 ds.

I'd say that my player pool is pretty small so any new sharks in the pool makes a difference I've been noticing lately most of the NL games at most times of the day are full of tough players that I know I dont have an edge on right now, so I usually try to avoid these and only play when theres a really bad player I have position on or hu vs a bad player.

So really at this point I"m trying to decide whats the better option;

1.Spend more time trying to master PLO especially HU as the games look juicier for sure yet there's more variance, my BR isn't huge, and my winrate has been lower (mainly hu),

  1. Try to get better at NL as I have proven history of a good winrate, but I think most of it is against bad spewy players, and I don't feel comfortable lately in the games when there are good regs around. Is it worth it to learn GTO , use solvers, and invest time into this when the good players are probably way ahead of me on the learning curve so it'd be a lot of work to get on their level or pass them?

Lastly I've been doing this for 2 years but I just play whenver I feel like it 2 hours here or 3 hours there, I've only averaged 2 hours a day the past 2 years and I've made 93K total but taking out 10/20 and 25/50 plo which I dabbled in last year I would have made 136K all in EV.
Which isnt enough so any ideas on how to be more professionally structured (studying, scheduling, game rejection/ selection) WOuld sitting online 8 hours a day waiting for only amazing games be a good way to go about this? Thanks I appreciate your help

March 24, 2018 | 3:35 a.m.

Post | dnice posted in NLHE: Poker career management

I have a question for you guys about career management. I play in a small player pool where there are a lot of really strong NL regulars that are better than me, a few huge whales, and some semi fish. Because the player pool is small, there may be 5 or 6 tables running at peak times and at off peak times like 3-6am maybe 0 or 1 tables so a random fish may sit you hu. For PLO, there's a smaller number of games running, but there are some bad regs, maybe 2 or 3 sharks in the whole pool and a decent number of big whales and semi fish.

For the past 2 years I've been playing professionally and have a 633K sample with an overall winrate of 5.63 bb/100
At holdem my overall winrate is 9.3bb/100 over 362K hands and its 10.5 at HU over 124K hands
For PLO my winrate is 1.15 over 262K hands
over 84k hands with 4-6 players on the table my winrate is 9.8 and hu over 123K hands my winrate is -4.5 bb/100.

Because of the small player pool a lot of the plo games are hu and 3 handed and I feel as though these are the better games because the opponents are mostly fish , but theres a lot of variance in these games and my results arent good yet although I'm putting my focus in improving on this format. Also I see my winrate is much higher at holdem yet lately it feels like every holdem table has 4 or 5 sharks that are way better than me, they know gto too well, but PLO seems like a bunch of fishy loose players so I dont feel comfortable playing holdem lately unless its hu vs a fish.
One interesting thing also is that my winrate is 2 times higher at 2/4 to 5/10 than it is at 1/ 2. I think in my player pool there are more grinders at low stakes and random fish taking shots at high stakes. Whats the best way to manage this given I have a 40k roll, need to cash out 8k a month and want to find the sweet spot between taking too much risk and maximizing reward. I generally have just been playing any tables up to 5/10 if I think I have an edge even though this is risky.

In general whats the best way to navigate the waters of cash games given there are so many different ways to go about it, hu, 6 max, plo, nl. What are some good table selection methods or table rejection. I've been noticing that sometimes when you put your name on too many tables across different sites you get bombarded with too many tables then you just autopilot and its hard to get rid of some tables if you think you have an edge. What do you guys think the sweet spot for all of this is. On the surface it looks soo easy some months you can make 30K and the money is flowing, the players seem bad, but overall its about long term yearly profits which haven't been so great, so what kind of mindsets and daily strategies are best to make sure we are focusing on the most profitable situations. How do you incorporate study and getting better into your career. Thanks

March 22, 2018 | 8:33 p.m.

I have a question for you guys about career management. I play in a small player pool where there are a lot of really strong NL regulars that are better than me, a few huge whales, and some semi fish. Because the player pool is small, there may be 5 or 6 tables running at peak times and at off peak times like 3-6am maybe 0 or 1 tables so a random fish may sit you hu. For PLO, there's a smaller number of games running, but there are some bad regs, maybe 2 or 3 sharks in the whole pool and a decent number of big whales and semi fish.

For the past 2 years I've been playing professionally and have a 633K sample with an overall winrate of 5.63 bb/100
At holdem my overall winrate is 9.3bb/100 over 362K hands and its 10.5 at HU over 124K hands
For PLO my winrate is 1.15 over 262K hands
over 84k hands with 4-6 players on the table my winrate is 9.8 and hu over 123K hands my winrate is -4.5 bb/100.

Because of the small player pool a lot of the plo games are hu and 3 handed and I feel as though these are the better games because the opponents are mostly fish , but theres a lot of variance in these games and my results arent good yet although I'm putting my focus in improving on this format. Also I see my winrate is much higher at holdem yet lately it feels like every holdem table has 4 or 5 sharks that are way better than me, they know gto too well, but PLO seems like a bunch of fishy loose players so I dont feel comfortable playing holdem lately unless its hu vs a fish.
One interesting thing also is that my winrate is 2 times higher at 2/4 to 5/10 than it is at 1/ 2. I think in my player pool there are more grinders at low stakes and random fish taking shots at high stakes. Whats the best way to manage this given I have a 40k roll, need to cash out 8k a month and want to find the sweet spot between taking too much risk and maximizing reward. I generally have just been playing any tables up to 5/10 if I think I have an edge even though this is risky.

In general whats the best way to navigate the waters of cash games given there are so many different ways to go about it, hu, 6 max, plo, nl. What are some good table selection methods or table rejection. I've been noticing that sometimes when you put your name on too many tables across different sites you get bombarded with too many tables then you just autopilot and its hard to get rid of some tables if you think you have an edge. What do you guys think the sweet spot for all of this is. On the surface it looks soo easy some months you can make 30K and the money is flowing, the players seem bad, but overall its about long term yearly profits which haven't been so great, so what kind of mindsets and daily strategies are best to make sure we are focusing on the most profitable situations. How do you incorporate study and getting better into your career. Thanks

March 22, 2018 | 8:33 p.m.

Ok, so I just reduced dating costs to 200 a month in my budget, I'm going to start making my girlfriends pay more often or stay in and cook, and I paid off the 8% loan for 26K, and going to pay off the other 2% since the balance is 14k so that'll reduce things by another 600 plus going to stop buying stuff, so now I see my montly nut can be around 3500 realistically plus taxes. Does this seem more reasonable to succeed as a pro. I will be playing with a 30K roll and going to drop to 1/ 2 and focus on grinding with only an occasional 2/4 to play against big droolers if they come around. Any advice on how to set up my grind as far as scheduling, staying disciplined, and really making this work. How about improving my game. I currently have cardrunners for a year plan and run it once elite(but may go back to essential as the elite players play much higher stakes than I do). How can I better use these tools to get better at the games I'm looking to play which is mainly low stakes nl and pl both hu and 6 max.

Also, how should I deal with taxes? I usually use do my own online, but would hiring an accountant be worth it as a professional gambler. Thanks

Oct. 6, 2016 | 1:42 p.m.

Also any tips on career management and making it as a pro would be appreciated

Sept. 19, 2016 | 8:02 p.m.

Yeah I'm in the US. I'm looking at it like this, as a professional I'd want to have over 100 buyins for the stake that I play especially with plo plus 6 months of living expenses. . I have about 60k on the poker sites and 24k in the bank so would paying off 26k or 40k be a bad idea since it'd increase my risk of ruin? Or is the peace of mind of being debt free worth it?

Sept. 19, 2016 | 8:02 p.m.

Post | dnice posted in NLHE: Bankroll management question

I got laid off from my job back in February so I've playing professionally since then. I was receiving unemployment and severance until July so now I'm on my own. I have around 70k on poker sites, and another 20k or so in the bank to pay off bills. My plan so far has been to cash out 3k a week no matter wins or losses. I play plo and nl up to 5 10 but Mainly 2 5 and I prefer hu.

My monthly nut is high as I have a mortgage and a few girlfriends lol. I budgeted around 700 a month for dates, 600 a month for travel, 500 a month for random things, so with this Monthly nut is around 5k a month, but I also took out a personal loan which I owe 26k on at 8% interest for 7 yrs at 450 a month, and another with 14k balance which I owe 2% on for 2 more years which is 630 a month These 2 loans add about 1.1k a month to my monthly nut so the total is around 6k

I've been thinking about paying these 2 loans off or at least the higher interest one to reduce my monthly nut. Would this be a smart thing or am I better off holding on to the 26k or 40k for now to build my career. I took the loans out to Jumpstart my career which I was able to do. Also I withdrew my 401k for about t 75k so I will owe penalties and tax on this in April, and I have to pay tax on 18k of unemployment.

Sept. 18, 2016 | 6 p.m.

Comment | dnice commented on Is it variance or rigged

Whats the answer to running this badly? I recently got laid off from my job and have no intentions of finding another job. I have about 45K between the poker sites and my bank, 20k on pokersites, 25k or so in the bank, and some investment accounts around 54k.

I'm honestly not the best player in the games I play in when its 6 max, but with good game selection I know I am a winning player. What would you suggest for someone going pro under my circumstances?

I'm used to winnning 5-10K on a good day but I'm seeing these swings are no joke. I'm thinking of targeting the fish at 1/2 and 2/5 and avoiding regulars. Any tips on how to discipline yourself to do this and not let ego get in the way. Any good ideas on improving mental game and making it as a pro/ managing life as a pro would be appreciated.

May 20, 2016 | 1:17 a.m.

Comment | dnice commented on Is it variance or rigged

It may be hard to read everything, basically I won 24K when I should have won 84K over 350K plus hands. I mainly play 1/2 and 2/5 and a little 5/10 .My average stack size shows at 850 dollars. Is it really possible to run this bad legitimately over this large a sample?

May 17, 2016 | 4:24 a.m.

Post | dnice posted in NLHE: Is it variance or rigged

Ive been playing on a particular site for a while now and I'm beginning to wonder if its possibly not random. I have a sample of over 1/3 of a million hands for the past 2 years and I'm running very much under EV and this has been the case pretty much everyday it feels like and the gap is only getting wider. Do you think my holdem manager results shows that this site my be rigged.

I know its not in the incentive of sites to rig the games in an obvious way but I'm not just some donkey who is complaining because I suck at the game. I win my fair shake on other sites, but this site has the majority of the action. Do these graphs look abnormal?

May 17, 2016 | 3:59 a.m.

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