I consider the riverplay pretty poor. I added three crEv trees where you i make a few assumptions that I think that are pretty standard.
2.)flop calling range (It´s hard to know if he´s going to fastplay TP2k+ and sets).
3.)Betting vs missed OTT -->mainly the PP between 3´s and 9´s
4.) Calling range OTR -->mainly the PP between the 3´s and 9´s.
The first tree consider the most optimistic assumptions for Phil (bet/callshove river with the pockets). The three lines OTr are compared. We also see he´s calling a huge % OTR (Polarizing).
The second one considers he´s fastplaying TP2k+ OTF and he´s not bluffing on the river K high FD.
The third one is what I consider (He might raise 22-33 on the flop but almost never K9/A9), and he might bet/call on the turn with the pockets but he´s never calling on the river, based on what I have seen in the highstakes.
To sum up, the bet is always the worst option, showing that if Polarizing is not betting the river with all the flushes, check folding is very superior, and if he is betting with all of them, is only a bit superior.
Anyway, just play a bit with the tree. I think it´s the best way to make accurate assumptions. Thanks Phil for bringing the hands, I will post some in the next weeks too.