ethanrox's avatar


50 points

No sorry.
You can start a thread targeting GTO+ people.

Oct. 11, 2019 | 4:16 a.m.

Comment | ethanrox commented on Mobius Poker Blog

Very well written post, kudos to you.

I think you did think in binary terms - "So the key to not tilting is to remove your expectations" - that's why I used the rather strong zero :)

Regarding the pain level, there is an image from the Vikings TV Series of one of the fiercest ones, Loki, enduring a water-drop torture. It broke him, although pain must have been 0.001/10.

I would say rather than try to avoid tilt which is I think we agree impossible, it's best to try to mitigate its negative effects by taking a break for example, or to engineer situations where tilt is unlikely to occur in the first place, i.e. playing properly rolled.

Sept. 30, 2019 | 11:53 p.m.

Comment | ethanrox commented on Mobius Poker Blog

I don't think it's realistic for the human psyche to have zero expectations especially when effort has been invested.

Moreover, there is running bad and running bad. I am pretty interested in the reaction of a non-tilting guy after 35BI downswing.

Sept. 28, 2019 | 1:13 a.m.

Post | ethanrox posted in NLHE: Study Group Dedicated Players

Hi guys

looking to start a smallish study group of players with the following profile:
- stakes: NL25-NL100
- PIO experience

Goal is to discuss and generate strategies based on quantitative analysis.

Sept. 27, 2019 | 2:28 a.m.

Comment | ethanrox commented on Mobius Poker Blog

In my experience, loss aversion is much more a part of bankroll management. I doubt that somebody would be fearful if they had 200BI for the level they are playing at.

IMO poker is a hard game because you never truly know if you are actually playing well or not. Sure, we have models and GTO solvers and what not but in the end of the day, we are not 100% sure we did the correct thing.

Sept. 12, 2019 | 1:12 p.m.

Comment | ethanrox commented on Mobius Poker Blog

what's not so great is that their "English" forum does not work atm. As a poker player I can only appreciate the barriers to entry.

Aug. 28, 2019 | 3:36 a.m.

Comment | ethanrox commented on Mobius Poker Blog

how did you learn H2N? I've been meaning to go into it, but it seems to have a very steep learning curve.

Aug. 27, 2019 | 1:28 a.m.

Comment | ethanrox commented on GTO or GTNO?

Saulo Ribeiro
well if you deny betting altogether for one of the players as extreme example - the effect of this will alter strategies at previous streets, hence the range we came to the spot with.

July 30, 2019 | 3:31 p.m.

Comment | ethanrox commented on GTO or GTNO?

Saulo Ribeiro what if we change the strategies, i.e. different betting options etc - do you think this will have a big impact on overall EV of the whole hand and ultimately alter the range we came to the spot with?

July 30, 2019 | 1:32 p.m.

Comment | ethanrox commented on GTO or GTNO?

Mix between GTO and GTNO

July 30, 2019 | 1:30 p.m.

Comment | ethanrox commented on GTO or GTNO?

From PioViewer menu -> Tree > Create subtree Configuration

July 30, 2019 | 11:24 a.m.

Comment | ethanrox commented on GTO or GTNO?

Hand 7 is a GTOGTO imo.

July 29, 2019 | 8:23 p.m.

thanks, will have a look :)

July 23, 2019 | 11:30 p.m.

Thanks a lot :)
It does make sense.

July 22, 2019 | 2:53 a.m.

Thanks for editing your post. I appreciate your new insight.

July 20, 2019 | 3:40 a.m.

Thanks I guess, but the question wasn't regarding so much the 4bet and the validity of the ranges. More interesting to me was range distribution and how it affects betting frequencies.

July 19, 2019 | 6:36 p.m.

Interesting take.
I rerun the sim with 66% OOP flop bet (clearly not a block bet) and now it bets even more often - 87%.
Some other analogies maybe?

Another point is that if OOP is forced to check, IP bets only 5% for the block 1/4 size which puzzled me too.

July 19, 2019 | 2 p.m.

Credit should go to Kevin Wang who made the conversion.

I glanced at the scientific paper because of the mismatch between results and ... results -> they have found a method AIVAT that can give you your "true winrate" based on a smaller sample but with a certain margin of error. So the true winrate is something like 4.8bb/100 when they have used this special methodology but within a margin of error of 1.3bb or something (cant remember exact numbers).

July 19, 2019 | 1:56 p.m.

Hello guys,

I stumbled upon something today while playing: I 4bet OOP (COvsBTN) and the flop comes JJTr.
I did cbet almost out of habit 1/4 pot, however, this seems like a flop that certainly favor the IP 4bet cold-caller.

With the following PIO tree parameters: equity runs almost 50-50% but with very clear nut advantage for IP, both proportionally and as given hands.

However, PIO is still wanting to bet 75%! for the 1/4 sizing OOP.
Does anybody have an explanation?

July 19, 2019 | 12:38 a.m.

I do take short breaks and play 3 tables.
You are right about the difficult sessions that can be very draining.

July 18, 2019 | 2:39 p.m.

That's the tree configuration - so no downloading per se :D I checked on another computer - still same result.

July 18, 2019 | 2:35 p.m.

I've been reviewing a hand in a 4bet pot where OOP 4bet to a very small sizing.
Ran a sim in PIO - link-9mb or tree config where I found the strangest thing at least to me.

On a runout of 3478 after bet-call, OOP has 36% equity and still PIO recommends betting almost half the time for a all-in jam.
When OOP is checking, IP has 70% Equity and PIO would only bet 15% of the time.

Does somebody have an explanation?

July 17, 2019 | 12:31 a.m.

Post | ethanrox posted in Chatter: Mental Fatigue at Zoom

When do you guys start feeling not as sharp - 1k hands in, 2k or more during a typical grind?

July 16, 2019 | 9:42 p.m.

If we want to have a shoving range ott what are we bluffing with if not with this? Blockers to KJs and QJs and slowplayed QQ and KK (even if unlikely), overs to Jx and pocket pairs + OESD. Seems like a total no-brainer.

July 9, 2019 | 11:56 p.m.

Rake is super high for poker player-friendly site.
It should have been an order of magnitude less than stars.
Very disappointing.

March 27, 2019 | 6:30 a.m.

I don't like the range bet on this board type. The fact that he didn't raise though caps his range, so we might find an easier call on the river.

Nov. 16, 2018 | 2 p.m.

I would prefer the blockbet/fold line. We can have all the 8x, and the backdoor flush as well.

Nov. 14, 2018 | 9:04 p.m.

Comment | ethanrox commented on AJ0 50z

Not super happy, but this must be a call. Ran a little sim which may have wrong range and what not but gave us 65% equity on the call here.

Nov. 13, 2018 | 1:22 p.m.

Comment | ethanrox commented on AT tp in 3bet pot

Well played.

Nov. 13, 2018 | 12:43 p.m.

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