fedea1982

This whole subject is one of the reasons extremely aggro players more often than not crush and burn.
Eg: "i'll triple barrel you all day because you overfold rivers", when the mdf vs triple barrels is NOT the mdf of the river (in fact it is way, way lower). A triple barrel LINE has to work very, very often to be profitable, even if the river bet itself is +EV

Right, I'll try to describe both toy games, maybe they'll illustrate the point, they're opposite sides of the same coin.

A) Galfond's toy game:

Starting on the turn. SPR is 4. oop has 0% pot equity, and 0% FE on turn. He can check/fold, or pot turn, jam river knowing that FE on river is 60%. The "myth of 50%" is that THE LINE should be taken since "we got a profitable jam on river". While the EV of the river jam is profitable, the EV of the line is still negative anyhow.

B) Steve's toy game:

Starting on the turn. Hero bets, gets called. River SPR is 1. Hero's range will jam 60% of rivers. Can hero check/fold 100% of times once he checks? (that's MY question). After all, villain turn floats only get to bluff 40% of times (less than alpha), so HIS LINE was already -EV to begin with even if we always fold after checking river. Or do we need to protect that checking range anyhow?

Hey Ben, I left a question on one of your favorite videos on this site, "improving on 1-A". I haven't got any response from Steve yet, but maybe you would know the answer? Or ask him about it? It's a concept I never heard before....

Here was my question

"Steve great video! Question: if I bet turn, get called and get to a river spot oop where I'll only check 40% of times, and the rest I'll jam, there's a PSB left....can I get away with always check/folding BC's to a jam since villain's floats only get that opportunity (of me checking river) less than mdf? I'm asking because I don't know if that's what's implied on the example you gave at the 16 minute mark....
"It doesn't matter if I always check/fold if I'm only checking 1%". That's what made me think of this question. If that statement of yours is strictly true (and I think it is), then I guess I'm on the right track here?"

So I'll expand a little more (I thought about this for a while now)....the only other vid I know where something similar was pointed out was on a Phil Galfond's vid called "unexpected value", where he "debunks the myth of 50%". He pointed that dub-bluff potting turn, pot jamming river (with no equity) on PvBC scenario is not profitable EVEN AGAINST A VILLAIN 60% FOLDING ON RIVER (the EV calc shows it).

So....I think the reason solvers don't mdf on many spots is because the indiffernce principle applies VS A LINE, not VS A HAND. In other words, we want to make bluffs indifferent across a multi-street barrel, not just "on this street".

Sorry for the long rant!!! Lmk your thoughts, I find this subject fascinating and under-discussed.

You are acting on emotion, that's a big problem. I read this advice from Alexander Fitzgerald, and it's great, maybe it might help you. Before making any move, but SPECIALLY on big decisions, for example facing a big bet, force yourself to name out loud the combos in his range that you think are bluffing you, AND the combos that you could be behind. Really try to get specific. Hit the time bank button, it's legal! ;) DO NOT insta-call, ever. Practice this even if your call is "obvious". Really commit yourself to the moment. To taking your time, to dissecting his range AND how he uses it. In general, this will lead you to discount BLUFFS, not VALUE. People usually like to bet big with nutted hands, after all. If you payed attention to villain, you'll find yourself folding correctly way more often than not. Not against his hand. Against his range. This is the only thing you can exploit: his range. You cannot exploit his cards, except in rare cases where his hand is face up, although even there you're still exploiting his range, which you narrowed to a specific combo.
And when let's say you call and villain shows up with a combination you don't expect, note it down. Now you have more information on his range and how he plays it. I know this all sounds theoretical, but it prints. Let go of the fear of being bluffed, embrace the "fear of acting on emotion" :) Cheers!

Steve great video! Question: if I bet turn, get called and get to a river spot oop where I'll only check 40% of times, and the rest I'll jam, there's a PSB left....can I get away with always check/folding BC's to a jam since villain's floats only get that opportunity (of me checking river) less than mdf? I'm asking because I don't know if that's what's implied on the example you gave at the 16 minute mark....
"It doesn't matter if I always check/fold if I'm only checking 1%". That's what made me think of this question. If that statement of yours is strictly true (and I think it is), then I guess I'm on the right track here?