goldaxe

Unfortunately experienced random flashing, and more importantly a missing card on the flop. Have e-mailed support, will hopefully be refunded for the hand since it affected my play.

Hi Dylan thanks for the video!

In the hand starting at 11.15 can you explain in more detail why this is a good value check raise? My initial thoughts are: While we know that he probably started with a weak draw from not capping pre, we don't know if he has improved after the first draw. As a rough estimate we might be about 60/40 ahead if we are ahead and 40/60 behind if we are behind? Going with this estimate, the options are: If we raise, we put in 2 bets good if we are ahead, and 3 bets badly if we are behind. If we call its +1 and -1. The chances of him improving are probably around 20-25% (lets say 25)
So EV of raising is 0.75(0.6 * 2 + 0.4 * -2) + 0.25(0.4 * 3 + 0.6 * -3) = 0.15 and EV of calling is 0.75(0.6 * 1 + 0.4 * -1) + 0.25(0.4 * 1 + 0.6 * -1) = 0.1

Can you comment on my assumptions and calculations? Another thing to think about is that
by raising we become unbalanced and he might be able to make good decisions later putting us on a strong draw. Would you make the same play against a strong player? (Said strong player would have probably capped pre, but how much EV should we sacrifice to keep our range balanced?)

At 28:00 I think Eri limp/folds rather than raise/fold which would change our read to him perhaps being a poor player. The next razz hand seems to confirm this

Thanks I enjoyed the video. A few times you said 'calling is out of the question' which doesn't mean what you think it means! I assume you mean calling is the clear play.

Hey Phil, considering how big an advantage it is to be the big stack in these situations, as you mention it Mikki's 'right' to be table captain, that seems like a decent argument NOT to reduce variance- sometimes you bust, but when you get the big stack you will obtain many hugely +EV situations as the rest of the table respects the fact that you can knock them out.

As always it is very hard to quantify these things...