I think in your models on the JJ hand you are over-estimating how often Villians will have AK. In addition to the possibly that most people prolly 4 bet AKo some % of the time here (25%), I think most opponents would be folding AK combos without a heart on the flop at least half the time (along with AQ with no heart which takes out some of the value range also. So perhaps that cancels out). Thought it was worth pointing out as it was a close spot and leans it slightly more towards a fold with dramatically less combos of AK.
Loved the Vid, as I do all of yours, more like these please.
Sept. 5, 2015 | 3:18 p.m.
Aprrox 22:00 into the video when Pistons limps the SB with a 50BB stack and you 3X J9o and he limp-reraises big you say he has succeeded in getting a raise or fold response out of you. You say if he raises smaller lets say to 170k and you had a "calling hand" like "88", now you would shove or fold with it. Can you explain why many people would consider 88 a "calling hand"? From my experience I very rarely see people call limp RRs from the SB in this spots with 8s with a 50BB stack (I think most people would Jam it vs a regular). I'm curious on what your thinking on this is.
Reasoning it out myself:
If you have 8s and he limp to 170k. There is now 255k + another 100k if you call and approx 1mill left behind. So your playing a 3 bet in position with 3X the pot left in stacks (plays more than this in tournament), but assuming he is folding a decent % of the time and his limp RR fold raise has decent equity (some Ax Hands etc), without any super short stacks at the table I would think shoving would be a superior play.
Anyways, I was confused why why 88 would be considered a calling hand in this situation and was wondering if you could elaborate.