gorillav

So I did play a hand with the villain earlier in the same positions and he had flatted my 3 bet with QQ. If he is flatting QQ I think he is probably flatting with AKo and AKs too. Maybe 4 betting only KK+ and AKs (at some small frequency).

The thing I hate about calling here is that I'm basically set mining. And against bad regs that don't size their cbets correctly in 4 bet pots I basically need to commit ~180 bbs if the flop comes all under cards. This villain claimed he had KK and he bet $300 into ~$880 which is pretty huge.

Limping with good hands is bad. In 50nl I’ve noticed I can raise as large as 8-9bbs against limper and they will still call with their garbage. Raise.

I don't understand why you are afraid of a check jam? If he does decide to take that line you can just fold, he is raising into you when you have every nutted hand in your range and he has possibly 2 (AJ and JJ). I think you lose a ton of value by not betting turn when there is a fd and a ton of pair + gutshots. You are in position, unless you get check raised you
are in control of how much money goes into the pot. Do you really think KQ, QJ, KT, or JT are folding to a half pot bet on the turn?

Also do you really think villain is checking twice oop with a nutted hand?

So what I'm interpreting from PIO is that your bluff is good against wider 4 betting ranges. I think it might be good to check back here against tighter 4 betting ranges (which I think is typical of 100nl).

Also I think that QQ, KJ, and KQ are value bets and that TT, 99, and QJs are bluffs. QJs seems like an especially good bluff since it blocks QQ which I think is mandatory call vs your bluff on this river.

What is your value range here? A5s (do you call a 4 bet with this?), AK (do you not 5 bet ship this?), slow played AA, and KK (which I think you should 5 bet ship 100 bbs deep)?

What does the rest of your range look like outside of value? Do you have QQ-JJ here? Do you have all JTs? What about KQs, QJs, T9s?

I think your range on the river is a lot of air unless you merge and start value betting KQs and QQ here.

If you are raising from the bb as tight as you say you are then you don't really need to call with that many hands to be unexploitable.

Let's just say that you have a range of AQo+, ATs+, KQs, 88+ (I think if you raise KQs you probably raise ATs and AJs which are better hands). You only need to call with 35 combos, if we take out ATs and AJs you need to defend with even less.

JJ+, TT and 88 is already 30 combos
Add in all of your flushes with AK, AQ, KQ you have 33 combos, if you ever have AJs that's 34 combos.
If you ever play ATs this way that's 37 combos.

By bringing in all of your 99 into your calling range you are basically deciding to call 10% more often than mdf which is a pretty huge adjustment and probably larger than you thought.

Also even against loose regs, I find that this line is rarely a bluff so I would consider calling less than mdf, worst case scenario he is bluffing into you with AT with the ace of clubs and you are practically dead. I imagine villain has every single suited Ax of clubs in his limp calling range along with K9-KJ of clubs and Q9-QJ of clubs (and probably a ton of other suited garbage).

I know you called wider than normal to exploit this villain but I actually think the exploitative line in this situation is to fold wider than GTO because I don't think his line here is balanced.

If you do have a read on this person that he bluffs too much I would still only bring the 9s with a club in them into my calling range since you have outs against his sets and small flushes and lower the likelihood of him having a flush.

This all assumes that you cbet 100% of your range then check 100% of your range which is probably incorrect so you need to tell me what you cbet range is and your check range is for this to be more accurate.

Seems like a good 4 bet bluff candidate, if you flat call you are either hoping for a Q or fd to hit on the flop.You wont be happy if an A hits because you could be dominated.

If you 4 bet bluff I think your hand becomes much more playable, villain will have to fold all of their 3 bet bluffs so you can just take down the pot pre, if they 5 bet you, you were likely dominated anyway as most players don't have 5 bet bluffing ranges especially vs cold 4 bets and if they call you there are a ton of boards that are good for your hand and range that you can cbet on and they will have to fold.

Thank you for this post its really good

I've been thinking about the hand more and I think I'm unbalanced in my calling range and that I don't have any monsters. If I call here and the person behind me folds I fully expect an overbet on the turn from the sb. I don't think I can call a huge bet on the turn.

I raise all of my sets, straights, and two pairs so if I only call I don't have any of those hands. I'm thinking of bringing some monster hands into my calling range that have blockers to the flush draw but I don't know if I'm losing ev by doing this.

sb is a very good player and in this spot probably has a standard sb range which is pretty tight, co plays almost any two and in this case had T3s which is almost a flip against my hand