jedimaster82

:)

Pre is good. Objectively speaking... :)

Haha. I'm glad my chat made the video.

I'm not a fan of the 1 betsize camp. Due to the handcuffing nature of this spot for villain (this board smashes your tight 3b range making it almost suicidal to bluffraise/lightshove) betting small (1/3 or less) with some hands that can't get it in will work quite well and can be balanced with the type of hand that you have + some other potential negative implied odds generating hands. Now, it's hard to calculate the EV of checking back so alot of the marginal hands might, as you said, work better to check back but I do think that in this particular spot you are burning money bet/folding too large. Bet big with the rest. 

Just to clarify, when you bet small what usually happens is that you induce more lightshoves/bluffraises and widen your opponents callrange. In this particular spot i think you only widen villains callrange which means that alot of marginal hands will play out quite well for you, probably making the EV higher than checking back/betting large. /jedi

Good video, Tom! Just a side note: In the first hand (KK9xr), I don't think you should snap-decide to check fold as KK9 is one of the best hands to bluffraise with on that board since you are blocking both AK and A9. And if called, you should have 4 outs, maybe 7. It is also a board, as you mentioned, that people tend to always steal as pf aggressor and often have a linear cbeting range (meaning people usually will bet even their bad Axxx which puts them in a tough spot when raised). I think I would bet 10 points of my daughters IQ that it is a profitable bluffraise vs an unknown. /jedi

Actually, potting (or near-potting) a heart river isn't necessarily a bad bluff against some opponents. Sometimes I use the concept of bluffing a card that is good for my opponents range just for that reason and the strength it implies. That never works against oddsen :) but works very well against some other opponents (works best when opponents range is still semi-capped). If he calls the turn and a heart lands then his range is going to be two pairs (KQ,K9,K2, slowplayed 2p otf), slowplayed sets, a few 1p + diamond hand and somewhat capped flushes (his flopcallrange + nut hearts on turn should often shove). If he's capable of tank-folding some low-med flushes when you pot then you prob have a profitable bluff.

...or maybe you don't even need to do that. You could just check/call or ch/raise whenever you have a flush otr and ch/raise blocker Ah and Kh. Sorry for rambling.

oh, and don't barrel heart river except for maybe 1/10th of the time (and then you should pot). Bye

Is folding 33% to 3b really correct when he is IP with 100bbs? If not, then his 44% foldtocb shouldnt be indicative either since he will have a much weaker range than normal in this spot. But even tho if his fldtcb is higher, his call-range is prob still going to be weaker than normal because he will have some calling hands he doesnt usually have with his tight pfrange (low flushes, weak queens etc.). With the T and the K blocker I feel this for sure is an immediatly profitable barrel that you have to puke*-fold if he shoves (*he could be semibluffing). I prefer $510 but maybe Oddsen is right and is going to be able to buy new skiwax or a knitted scarf for his saved 30 dollars.

Good work, Leo!

Bluff 10-20% of the time? Sizing, I guess, should be consistent with your valuesize. Intuitively it feels like a losing play to bluff but one that should be made occasionally since you obviously will end up with a valuehand sometimes here. Use a randomizer and set it to about 15%? This is opponent dependent also ofc but since limited info is given...

First of all, I said nothing about this particular hand. It def seems like a questionable idea to turn your hand into a bluff in this specific spot. However, I don't see how it is irrelevant to argue against such an absolute statement you made. And I don't think my advice isn't applicable to low stakes plo as I already mentioned. If people here are only looking to learn an ABC strategy then, off course, they are free to ignore my post. However, I think there are PLENTY good spots to bluff stations at low stakes plo - even the "hero-stations". I have never liked the idea of playing a "simple game" against simple opponents. Whenever I play a weaker player, I take alot of time to study their tendencies, since they almost always have more identifiable patterns than the regs. This very often leads to making some sophisticated (non standard/str8forw) plays and sometimes leads to playing rather straightforward.

I take issue with this particular advising because I have seen it before and don't agree with it and it is dangerous to be so absolute in game that is so complex. Also, if you are a small stakes plo player wanting to progress up the stakes, as you mentioned, only learning to play an ABC strategy is not the way to go (IMO).

Yes, sorry I am going to give a more constructive answer, was busy before. First of all, there are a few different types of stations. I have a friend who plays low stakes plo and watching him, I see there are alot of players there who call really light on flop and turn, not because they think you are bluffing, but rather because they hope to improve their hand (let's say with a marginal draw) and realize their equity and very often end up on the river with a weak hand where they don't pay off a river bet. Against these players, you can make alot of money firing 3 barrels on certain boards especially since these types of players rarely are great hand readers.

Then you have the non-believer type of stations that herocall a ton because they hate getting bluffed or run over or have it in their game as an overall strategy. These players exist all the way up to the highest stakes (even within this category there alot of subgroups). Take Oddsen for example. He is not the most fold-happy guy but does this mean I should stop bluffing him? If I did, it would be christmas for him every time we play (it probably is already). Since he is smart (allthough unbelievably retarded) he will notice that I become unbalanced and my bankroll will move to Norway... A proper adjustment to these players is rather to valuebet lighter and maybe cut down an inch on your bluffing but keeping your bluff-to-valubet ratio balanced instead of just stop bluffing.

Also, there are plenty of situations where bluffing a station is more profitable than bluffing a non station since their range is alot weaker in many spots.


Love, Jedi

"as I've said in numerous threads, bluffing stations is one of the worst things you can do at a poker table"
Actually not true.

Odd, I like you, don't get me wrong. I know, since you often feel on top of the world, that no matter what position you have, you feel like you are IN position - even when you are MP and villain is CO. This is fine and all but try thinking about other players that do not share your glaring confidence. It's very easy to forget the lesser people in the world when immersed in your own excellence. Yours truly, /Jedimaster

At first I thought so too but thinking about it more made me lean alot more towards flatting. First of all, he raises 2.5x otf which is inconsistent with how he, and most, raises with a semibluff. This combined with the fact that we are significantly blocking the relevant wraps makes me think he doesn't have a wrap. I think his valuerange consists of sets and any 2p. I think it's very conceivable he would even play a 94xx like this. The other part of his range are bluffs (like KQ55...). Now let's look at our range. We don't need much of a hand to call his 2.5x raise otf but we need a stronger range to continue ott. This means that when we take the line bet/call , check/call the turn has helped us alot of the time which means (since we 3b pre) that we are going to have a decent amount of heart draws in our range. That means he should seriously consider bluffing on any blankish rivers whenever he ends up otr with not enough showdown value since our range there is going to be weak. It also means we could possibly bluff hearts.

Benefits of flatting (if my handreading is correct):
* we get more value when he is bluffing
* we can bluff any 78QK (and possibly hearts)
* loose slightly less vs a set
* strengthens our turn callrange
* I think we play the river better than him

Drawbacks
* Win less vs. worse 2pairs (this might mean alot)
* something I'm missing

So, I think by calling we do alot better against his sets, bluffs, and 109xx and we do worse against his inferior 2pairs.

Yes, sorry. Changed.

Very good video though, Hac! Looking forward to more!

What Joeri said + leading J8 flop is for sure the most +ev play.

Meh, it's probably bad to always shove here, Grandfold. But also bad to not ever obv. I dont know the magical number, you'd have to call Sauce, but flip a coin is what I would do.