Hi guys, trying to explain a spot that was discussed by my friend and I. Would very much appreciate input from Pros as he is very stubborn and his ego needs to be subdued here. Alternatively if I (and other regs discussed this hand with) am not so correct in my thinking, I'd like to learn something new.
10/20/40 PLO5 8-max, small ante
MP opens 190 (11.6K eff), SB short stack 3b to 670 (1.5K to start the hand so about 30-35bb eff), we are straddle with AAQT7ds. Both players are unknowns
We can 4b to about 2300 here. If MP calls pretty much closing the action, we will be going to SPR 1.6 with a small side pot. If we flat call and given MP is never folding, we will be going to SPR 5.5 effective with MP, short stack SB SPR 0.4. Friend wants me to emphasise that MP will most likely fold. I think he may call a decent chunk of the time (20-30%), but that is sort of besides the point of the debate.
His argument is that if we 4b and MP folds, we are flipping vs SB in a high rake environment and therefore not making much in this spot when we only get the dead 6bb or so in middle as compared to cold calling, letting MP in with a dominated hand (with a chance to backraise if MP decides to try isolate for some reason), and then being able to win a bigger pot post.
I think we are handcuffed post and would happily take the dead money pre, and if not then we are able to 4b and see a flop at SPR 1.6 with premium AA.
Post flop SB will be jamming high % of flops, and my friends logic is we can commit a lot dynamic flops (obviously not monotone/paired/987 and similar straight boards) with a hand that will dominate a lot of MP hands e.g AA nfd, Set over set.
I think this is far too infrequent and MPs get in threshold will be far too high in that spot. Our range is perceived as super nutted when we try to play for all of it in huge dry side pot SPR 5.5, and when we do get continued it will be only by top tier
e.g if we raise AA NFD on a disconnected flop, I don't think we will be continued by a hand like KK + fd + even a gutter or pair on board, or say top pair gutter FD. There is very little reason for MP to play a guessing game and gamble here for stacks, with the SPR still relatively high, still having to beat SB and with us showing so much strength. I think it is likelier he will only continue very top tier hands that we will be at best flipping with,
We are also handcuffed on other textures where we may not want to commit first to act and MP can raise.
I will post results for anyone curious later in the hand