Villain calling range preflop: we can exclude QQ+ AK which are standard 4bets.
Villain x/raise range on the flop (and the range does not change after his all-in bet on the 6 blank on the turn ):
- values: QT (12 combos) JJ (3) AJ (6) perhaps, i don't see anything more (he is not x/raising KJ or AQ and then betting all-in)
- bluffs: can he bluff TT (6 combos), blocking the nut straight ? let's say half the time, so 3 combos
So you are ahead of 9 combos.
And you are below 15 combos, with little equity (4 outs turn, so 8% equity).
You need to call 61K to win 91 + 61 = 152K, so you need 61 / (152 + 61) = 29% equity for the call to be correct.
your equity is your value equity 9/(9+15) + your drawing equity 15/(9+15)*8% = 37.5 + 5 = 42.5 % equity.
Now, if he never bluffs in this spot + does not do this play with AJ, you have only your drawing equity (8%) and you have an easy fold.
Feb. 28, 2019 | 4:25 p.m.
NLH FT table / 5 left / I have the 2nd stack
Winamax - 15000/30000 NL (7 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
Hero (BTN): 19.09 BB
SB: 44.58 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 12.77, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 54)
BB: 13.35 BB (VPIP: 28.87, PFR: 11.35, 3Bet Preflop: 10.87, Hands: 144)
UTG: 17.29 BB (VPIP: 21.97, PFR: 13.60, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 135)
CO: 13.69 BB (VPIP: 23.29, PFR: 16.90, 3Bet Preflop: 16.00, Hands: 76)
5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.17 BB) Hero has Jd Qs
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.1 BB, SB calls 1.6 BB, fold
Flop : (5.87 BB, 2 players) Js 2h Tc
SB checks, Hero bets 2.5 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB
Turn : (10.87 BB, 2 players) 2s
SB checks, Hero bets 5 BB, SB calls 5 BB
River : (20.87 BB, 2 players) 6s
SB bets 13.91 BB, fold
SB wins 34.78 BB
Even if SB never 3bets (3Bet Pre = 0 in HUD), we can exclude from his calling range: 99+, AJ+
Flop : JT2 his calling range: 22 JT Jx Tx A2s (made hands) K9s Q9s 98s A2s (draws)
Turn : 2s his calling range: we can remove JT which x/raises flop and A2s which x/raises turn given the very drawy board.
remain: 22 Jx Tx Ks9s 9s8s (Qs9s not possible because I block Qs)
River : 6s his all-in bet range : values 22 Ks9s 9s8s / bluffs AsT (blocker max spade) and maybe KsJ and KsT (2nd blocker max spade)
so only 3 value combos vs 3 to 7 bluff combos (3 AsT + maybe 2 KsJ + 2 KsT)
With these river odds, should I have called ?
Anyway I folded given the ICM pressure and also the fit or fold profile of the opponent. But I have a lot of doubts ....
Feb. 27, 2019 | 11:59 a.m.
As a PLO/PLO8 player, I'm very interessed too.
Both for cash games and tournaments; and I think PLO8 tournaments offer probably the best ROI potential as generally the field is playing way too weak compared to NLH and PLO tournaments (playing too many PLO type hands).
Nov. 19, 2017 | 12:34 p.m.
To avoid this unpleasant sitation, why dont you just fold pre-flop ? J8o a marginal hand even versus the wild opening LAG raiser range, and you know you will face agression most of the time on the flop OOP.
Just wait for a better spot to get involved in a pot as you have time before the bubble.
Sept. 27, 2017 | 1:19 a.m.
very nice video Nick.
i was recently involved in 2 similar situations (3bet SB vs BT) in a PokerStars.fr tournament, and each time i took the wrong decision.
Can you please help me correct my flaws, here we can suppose that in both situations the opponent raiser in the BT is a random player (not so much balanced) since it is a 5 euros tourney.1rst hand (9 handed, middle stage of tourney)
blinds 300/600 antes 60.
I have 50K in the SB and my BT opponent covers.
CO opens 1500, BT calls and I 3bet 4x with KK to 6000, BT calls. Pot around 15K.
Flop A84 rainbow, I check call 8K. Pot 31K.
Turn 5 spade which brings a bd flush draw since the 8 is a spade.
I check, he overbets his whole stack and I fold.
My reasoning: his range of turn overbet value: 88/44/A8s/A4s/A5s/76s/55?? (i discount AK which would be a 4 bet preflop and I block K, and AQ AJ AT which would not overbet I think, just bet smaller).
his range of turn overbet bluff: air (how much ?), 75s/65s and some bd flush draws (my 2 K are red so I dont block spades) and I dont see other hands.
So his range dos not contain enough bluffs for me to call.
Well he shows 97spade ...
blinds 400/800 antes 80.
I have 40K in SB and my BT opponent has 25K.
BT opens 2000 and I bet 3x to 6000 with QQ. Pot around 13K.
Flop AJ2 with J 2 diamonds (I dont have Qd). I check call 7K.
Turn T offsuit. I check call his all-in and I lose to A7c.
My reasoning: the flop is very draw heavy, he has tons of missed flush and straight draws, and I block the KQ nuts with my QQ.
Playing big pairs on Axx flop is always difficult, and I think even more in 3bet pots. From your video, I assume that KK and QQ are both in my check calling range against a random player, but how to play correctly the turn ?
Sept. 25, 2017 | 2:56 p.m.
End of the tournament (NLH 6max) - im average stack with 80 left, already ITM, around 40th.
I open in the CO with KdJh to 30K with a stack of 390K. The BB calls and covers me.
Flop 9d9h5d. Check/Check.
Turn Qd. The BB bets 48K and i call.
River Th. The BB checks, I bet 60K with my straight and the Kd blocker to the diamond flush. The BB raises to 170K.
Who calls here ?