kiitmo

bump

^ good points. I think if you x/r all of your gut shots and some diamonds, it's gonna be hard to be very balanced here (meaning you'll get to the river with way too many bluffs.)

I had a similar board saved on my hard drive so I thought this could help you out. Your hand is basically the same as Jh8h on this board and makes up a good amount of the 11% x/r the solver does on this flop vs 30% bet. (green is check, red is fold, and the other colors are raise.) That being said the offsuit 6 is a bad card for you, it doesn't complete any of the draws you might x/r on the flop.

I like the bluff since I don't feel like many people would bluff here without diamonds but once he calls turn, I think you'll need a more connected (5-J, diamond) card on the river here to get a fold from most people here.

This graph is from LLinus's 2p2 thread back in 2015. I wouldn't expect to do anything like this at NL10, but it's cool to see such a beastly redline.

I think it's hard to really win much redline at NL10 since people call down really wide, but if you really want your redline to go up, you could just jam and 4bet more.

A better player than me told me that the only line to look at is the green one.

@28:25 with JJ any reason not to raise smaller like 12bb? I feel like you lose a little bit of fold equity but it makes any bluffs you might have like A5s, way less costly.

Since at equilibrium, you always call 77 on river and the EV of betting and checking is pretty equal, do you think it's higher EV against population to check-call?

I don't think river is an easy fold but probably a fold. You have lots of better hands to call, AA, AK, AT, AQ, QQ. So TT is pretty low down in your range after betting 3streets, maybe you'll also have Ad2d-9d that you can comfortably fold.

What bluffs do you have on that river? Maybe KQ w/ Kd, or QTs (if you open this from utg)? You likely don't have too many bluffs so when villain jams I don't really expect him to try and fold you off an ace when the board runs out so amazing for UTGs range. It's likely AQ-AK and maybe if he's really sick turning weak aces with the fd A5dd into a bluff. (Although that blocks a lot of your folding range)

Also why do you think he's a reg if you only have 100 hands? Him flatting an utg open from the sb is not very reggy

Nah, he's not betting 2/3 flop with A5s. It's more likely to be an overpair (99-AA) With weighting heavily on 99-TT since these never 4! (Maybe just 1 combo per QQ-AA) and then sets 22,55, and 88.

Turn and river significantly reduce his value range to quads (2 combos), sets (3 combos) and some 99-TT (OP: do you think this is the sizing someone would choose with 99s or TTs?) I feel like they would be worried about all your over pairs.

Also on turn he bets half pot, I'd expect some of his flush draws bluffs to x give up here after the board pairs. And the half pot bet makes me lean more towards he filled up and is trying to get a call.

I think it'd be pretty ambitious of villian to blast away on this flop, turn and then overbet river since population does not fold overpairs that often. So I think you made the right fold. It does suck though when fish overvalue 99-TTs which can happen but more likely you're crushed.

Edit: I think you could take the same line and call KK-AA on river (folding 99-QQ), and you wouldn't be over folding vs an overbet

Nice call down. Is this squeeze size standard in your player pool?
Also what'd he have?

Thanks Qing this video is really making me think about some pretty huge adjustments I should've been making live that I really haven't been. Also your talking speed is fine.

Could you do a review of some live hands you played in the last couple years?

Hey Nihil22, I think the flop is a little thin for xr. When you raise 50 over 14 into a pot of 59 he only needs 24% equity to call. (36/(109+36)) I think you get floated by a lot of overs on this flop against the population as well as any hand better than yours. Maybe you get some extra value from A8-A6, but those hands that are betting flop will likely bet turn especially on a brick like 3d. Additionally, if you xr this top pair, your calling range is gonna be weak.

As played turn is fine, river is definitely a x decide, for the same reason the xr flop is not good. Not much worse will call. The other range is gonna have all the over pairs, and some 10x like KT that flopped open ended and rivered a K. The K is not good for your range and should be checked.

Also the website is fine, that dude is a troll.

Your thought process is super helpful, thanks for this video! On the min raise, or "power raise" -- with stronger hands than ace high how are you responding to it? For example KT or 55 on a AK5Tr board.

belrio42 you are totally right about AA not being too thin in that spot. I feel like the range the average reg has after calling a xr jamming river is usually heavily weighted towards value. Like if he thinks hero has a lot of bluffs he would choose a smaller sizing like 1/3 pot because he knows those hands will fold.

I think AA is too thin for value here, unless OP has some history with villain. I don't see many, or really any bluffs here after hero xr turn.

As played I think turn is fine btw

thanks dude