And they let you see a cheap showdown by not applying pressure.
Everything said above is good advice, would also be looking to get to showdown as cheap as possible and folding to any aggression on this run out given ranges in this spot.
May 28, 2019 | 9:36 p.m.
Hi, I think that you have analysed the hand really well and everything you wrote sounds good to me, although I have not worked out the combos myself it all sounds reasonable.
I think that as a general rule of thumb at 25nl which is the stake I play too, that villains do not triple enough as bluffs in the majority of situations, but this is all very player dependent and you have a note now that this villain is capable of doing so.
What I do notice is that I see more triple brl bluffs from PF aggressors when they are OOP. I also have noticed that players will squeeze wider than they will 3b in a lot of cases. I am surprised that villain goes 3 streets here given your super snug range. I think that a lot of players in your situation would even fold some AJ & KQ combos, and so if i were the squeezer here I would say you have a lot of 99-JJ as a big chunk of your range and would probably give up river given the run out. Especially when he blocks AK & AQ.
I think this is more likely spew than anything, his flush card blocker is not super relevant as the flush draw is not present on the flop so less likely you start calling to hit the flush, way more likely you have a hand exactly like you do.
In terms of adjusting, i would fold more of my range on the flop and turn, but not by a huge amount, and not the medium pocket pair portion of the range but perhaps the weaker Ax and KQ hands.
May 28, 2019 | 9:28 p.m.
With the pot being 3 way I like to size up my flop cbet to around 1/2 pot sizing here, although as you have a limp call in the pot who probably has a very wide range, our betting range here wants to go a little bigger I think.
OTT you can't overbet here, although BB is 'capped' in terms of not having the best Aces, the board just got way more connected and this card helps BB continue range versus your flop bet , so he is now relatively uncapped on this turn. Having said that I still like a bet, around 60-80% of the pot. This should fold out his 9x, 8x, medium pocket pairs without a strong draw and his weaker Ax holdings. All which you have a strong draw against. you are polarizing here with double gutter so makes sense to go big, however not overbet as we mentioned villain is now not capped on this turn.
River as played, you are correct that BB is usually capped here, most people will lead with a strong hand thinking you have given up and going for value themselves as opposed to going for the check/raise.
I think exploitatively you would get more EV from sizing down and trying to get a call from a weakish Ax, or improved 2 pair type hand and I would go around 1/2 pot here, or go for 1/3 block bet. I dont think you have much chance of getting called and also gives chance to villain who is a thinking player the chance to do something crazy versus your perceived weak range (1/3 range bet flop, check back turn, small bet river)
May 28, 2019 | 9:05 p.m.
im not sure 500 hands is enough to evaluate WTSD & WSD stats? i would say that a 35/18/5 player (preflop stats more useful here) is more loose and passive (lots of PF calling and not much raising and 3 betting)
when they suddenly bet that big on the river i am leaning towards a fold and i think they have a lot of Tx here that didnt get chance to raise turn when you checked back.
having said that there are a couple of busted draws on the board (clubs and straight draws) so i can see an argument for calling but overall i dont think this player looks that aggro and so would be inclined to fold
May 27, 2019 | 10:20 p.m.
I try and picture the hand chart in my head visually.
I also just learn them in compartments so like (pairs, suited bways, offsuit bways, SC's, suited gappers, suited A's & K's etc)
and i drop them into these 'buckets' in my mind
May 27, 2019 | 10:09 p.m.
Yes, now I have worked through a few more videos I can see that we should be defending around 50% of range in all positions to 3bets, so sometimes that is 50% of a wide range (BU) and sometimes it is 50% of an already tighter range (other earlier positions).
So yes i think in the examples given it is player type we are focusing on and also we can refer to in game stat fold v 3 bet to help us decide as well as overall player type whether we can adopt a polarized or linear 3 bet strategy, and look at players left to act to see whether we can indeed have +EV calls.
May 27, 2019 | 10:05 p.m.
I have a question about the example at the end of the video where we are BB v Solid Reg on BU.
Peter says that we have Average or Unknown Fold Equity versus villain, but I would have assumed that due to him being on the BU and having a somewhat standard range, that Fold Equity is HIGH in this spot, and so we adopt the Polarized 3 betting range.
If BU opens 40-50% of hands from this position and faces a 3B then I think FE must be pretty high here, even versus a solid reg
In the video previous to this we looked at a situation where a tight player opened from the CO and we said FE was high here, so i think versus a tougher opponent but with a range much wider, we are looking at similar % of range that they fold to a 3B?
Would like feedback on where my assumption has gone wrong? Do we estimate what % of their total range continues, to determine whether FE is high or not?
May 22, 2019 | 5:55 p.m.
Just as an additional not to the above, I think the other reason we want to dissuade OR from calling our larger 3bet pre flop is to reduce the implied odds of hands like medium PP's and SC's that can outdraw us postflop by making them pay a lot pre-flop to call. Implied odds coming from the price they pay preflop and the amount they can win postflop (with deep stacks they already have the incentive so we need to make the price even worse for them to counter this)
May 19, 2019 | 2:31 p.m.
From the strategy advice I have seen before it is the opposite, i.e. you want to 3bet larger with deeper stacks, especially when out of position.
Being out of position means that we realise less of our equity than IP, and this is exaggerated with deeper stacks. Going larger with our 3b cuts down the SPR and somewhat reduces the disadvantage of equity realisation. (e.g opener raises 2.5bb, we are OOP and rather than 3bet to 9 or 10bb, we may go to say 12bb when super deep).
We can also increase our flop checking range in some spots when OOP and very deep and play more defensive check/call strategy with our strong but non-nutted hands to avoid getting raised large and threatening stacks 300bb deep.
May 19, 2019 | 2:28 p.m.
+1, sounds like the course would be ideal for you