Mid month update
Shooting 100nl has been interesting, always feels a bit weird when first shot taking a new stake especially if you get +/- >5 buyin days, but overall I can't complain because I haven't had to move back down yet! Breaking even so far for the month on the tables, but getting used to the pool and also trying to fit in study sessions as well to keep upgrading.
I completed the rakeback challenge, for $800 rakeback, which means we are nicely in profit now for the month, and I have 13 days left on the promotion so looks like I should be able to complete it for a second time if I average around 2-2.5k hands per day, so I am going to aim for this because 16 buyins is a lot of free money which will support the BR if results start to go south.
To increase my volume I have been getting up at 6.30am and playing from 7am-9am before the day gets going, which has been pretty cool to sneak in 2 hours play that I otherwise would not have, going to keep going with this for sure.
Still not started on any meditation.
Been connecting with more members of PD on a 1-1 basis and everyone is so supportive and knowledgeable, I plan to tap into everyone's shared experiences as much as possible to help catapult my improvement, and once I am proficient I can then give back to the new guys too.
Hoping to log 60k hands for November, carve out a profit on the tables, and lock up the $1600 rakeback - that's the aim right now. LFG!
Nov. 11, 2020 | 6:35 p.m.
Poker is a wild game.... one minute you can be full of confidence, everything is going your way and then the doomswitch gets enabled and you're suddenly questioning everything. You maintain an aura of calmness, because you understand variance, you have grinded primedope, you are better than to let short term results influence anything... right? But still you can't control the underlying emotion of a) happiness when the sick heaters kick in and b) the sadness when you get completely destroyed.
Maintaining a level head throughout is the aim, but it can be hard sometimes because when we have aspirations to climb stakes and put our knowledge and hard work to the test on the tables, we like to see some kind of reward for our effort, and I don't know how we can control the euphoric feeling of a sick heater or the despair of a never ending downswing despite our best efforts to be the serene swan gliding across the lake. I guess meditation should help with this and I am going to give that another go despite a few failed false starts on that front.
I don't feel I have a particular problem with variance, but I am acutely aware that it does influence my mood, and any steps I can take to even out and be more more Stoic in my outlook will help me as more of these tests come up. I recently hit a heater after the downswing documented above, and we turned a heavy loss into a pretty decent win in the end, resulting in hitting the profit target to join 'division 2' within Poker Detox which means I am now shot taking 100nl and have more detailed strategy and study material to work with.
I'm still working on the rakeback challenge and playing on pokerstars until this is done and then making a decision where to play afterwards. For now, building on my routine of play and study and trying to make 100nl stick are my main priorities, whilst being that calm swan for real (hopefully!)
Nov. 3, 2020 | 10:06 a.m.
Month 2 round up
As I mentioned in my previous posts, this month has been very testing mentally, but hopefully I have grown as a result. I have been putting more time into meaningful study, including deliberate practice that feels like it is paying off - I am way more clear in my thinking in a number of spots compared with the start of the month, with many more to learn!
My leaks I presented to my coaches were accurately diagnosed and they told me what I need to do. Unfortunately it's not always that simple when you have some mental game struggles and tendencies that are constantly pulling you in 1 direction and as soon as you stop paying attention you're suddenly way off course. I have gained extra confidence and steel from going through this, I have much better routine, my sleep is still off but my diet has been cleaned up and I have had no alcohol for a few weeks and everything feels good right now.
I identified I have a deep-rooted sense of Urgency that was affecting my play. Through daily use of some mindset flashcards as part of a warm up routine, I am reminding myself what I am doing and why, and what my process is and what I hope to achieve.
For some people this may all seem unnecessary but for me it has worked wonders.
Variance was back on our side for the 2nd half of the month, and for the 2nd month in a row I managed somehow to scrape a profit once I factor in $500 of rakeback and bonuses.
This gives us an overall profit after month 2, of around $800
I will drop the mandatory graph and share one of my warm up cards I wrote, to the question "How do we achieve Growth in Poker?"
For November I am heading back to Pokerstars, as they have offered me a rakeback challenge for $800 equivalent to 40% rakeback. I need to play approx 40k hands in 3.5 weeks, but that shouldnt be a problem and I need all the bonuses I can right now, so lets hope for some heat this next month! GL all!
Oct. 30, 2020 | 1:11 a.m.
OK so a friend asked me today what does my study routine look like, so I started listing all of the things that I have done in the past, and the list kept growing as I remembered other things that I have done that were useful. It was actually a great question because some of these things I have not done for a while and now I have reminded myself of everything that can be done, and should be done and it's a pretty long list when you factor in the time involved. Going to create myself a study timetable as want to keep on top of all these ways to improve and make sure I am doing them every week. Pretty excited actually and most importantly, enjoying the process. When I get excited to study I know that only good things can happen as a result.
Oct. 20, 2020 | 11:11 p.m.
Mid month update
Really struggling so far this month, just came back after 3 days off because I needed a break after such bad results. A lot of it is variance, but there is definitely a lot of misplays in there too. Have made a promise to myself to do a daily routine of review and study no matter what, and then play if I feel good, but I have loads of hands to go over to keep me busy for months, so there is plenty of study to be done and will not run out of that.
If I just trust the process and study hard every day then I believe I can turn this around. Just got to keep plugging away!
Oct. 18, 2020 | 11:26 p.m.
Time for an update!
Month 1 in CFP :)
After cruising through the training phase of Poker Detox I started on stake with them on 28th August, I cleared out my balances and they gave me a shiny $1k to work with. I was full of confidence and had visions of meeting the profit target for 100nl before the month was out. I got off to a decent start, and then shit hit the fan and I ended up going on a downswing for 25 buyins! I was always kind of breakeven/slight winning before I joined this CFP, and have not experienced many downswings that were this aggressive before, even though 25 buyins is not even that much, it happened over 5k hands which felt quite brutal, but thankfully I also felt a sort of 'serene calmness' as well. I figured that the strategy I was playing now was no different to that of last month, and I had confidence that things would turn around.
Playing on GG poker, the rake is pretty high, but thankfully you can get some meaningful rakeback as well, which kind of saved my ass a little bit as was on the path to going busto with the $1k stake money, but then I got $180 rakeback and then 2 x $50 cash drops within the next week which helped me stay afloat.
I reviewed a bunch of hands and there were some pretty bad mistakes in there. Like a lot of people I definitely play worse when running bad. Not to say that I go on crazy monkey tilt, because I rarely play when I feel tilt is obviously present, but I think we are more likely to feed into the natural tendencies we have when running bad, compared with when not.
For example, a lot of players that are naturally risk averse will revert to their passive tendencies when faced with continued bad variance. They will fail to pull the trigger on the river with a bluff after getting called down light the last 3 attempts, or will just fold their bluffcatcher this time on the river because the pain of paying off another triple barrel is just too much for them right now.
My problem however is somewhat the opposite of this in that when I am down I am more likely to invest in spots that are not profitable - I will triple barrel hands that might be better played as BXB, or I will call anyway in spots that I know are not overbluffed. You can't win the hand if you fold, right?
So I definitely have plenty of leaks I can work on trying to fix and refine, but one of the biggest lessons I have taken from this month is to 'keep calm and plug away'. Most of you will already be familiar with Patrick Howard's blog - if you somehow missed it, I highly recommend reading through it. One of things he says is that "The antidote to a downswing is Volume minus Urgency" and I took solace in this quote a few times this month.
Anyways, we chipped away at the downswing and started to grind back up slowly but surely, only to hit another steep losing day - 10 buyins in a day followed by another couple of losing sessions, and then we started rebuilding again.
One thing I know for sure - we cannot control variance, but if I had to guess in total this month I could have saved probably 10 to 20 buyins of losses from mistakes/bad plays which is a lot of money. I'm not upset by this, in fact it inspires me to work on weaknesses and constantly try and play as focused as possible.
Full month results from HM3 (note: HM3 is still buggy importing hands from GG poker with quite a few hands from every session failing to import, as such graph is a loose representation of actual results)
Even though it looks like we broke even, with rakeback and bonuses and a bunch of hands not importing, we ended up +$610, which is a great result considering we nearly went bust :) It wasn't what I was expecting from the first month but happy to be in profit.
I will be focusing more energy next month in refining play in 3 and 4bp's and also will be trying to grind mainly reg tables as opposed to fast forward, as I have had some recent success there.
GL everyone for October!
Sept. 27, 2020 | 8:16 p.m.
On the team
Officially got invited to the team after I submit my sample of hands for review. Pretty pumped to say the least! :)
Straight on to the tables for an extended grind today. Sticking with GG poker for now.
Aug. 29, 2020 | 12:30 a.m.
Hey mate - link to latest pic of results not working for me, but looks like you have been absolutely crushing it! So great job!
Great that you recognise it is important to include time for review and study, I know you're taking lots of notes on other players, but also reviewing your own play is very important too.
Fair play for getting in the volume, but maybe a more longer term plan that is realistic for study and play that you can stick to without burnout will be beneficial.
GL - will be following along!
Aug. 23, 2020 | 11:49 p.m.
Week 7 Update
Have not done an update for a while, have been very busy studying, practising, reviewing and discussing the new strategy with my team mates who started at the same time as me with Poker Detox. The first month or so is a training phase where we get to try out the strategy and work with coaches to iron out any misunderstandings/doubts/incorrect implementation and just general integration of the strategy. There are 4 trainees including me this month and we're all working together. I'm actually surprised how much support we are being given from coaches and also how well we are working as a team to look at spots together and try and work them out. It's honestly been a fantastic experience so far, and it is still just the start! It really feels like a family and everyone is looking out for one another, the vibe and attitude has been superb.
Once the coaches feel we are integrated enough with the strategy and able to execute it consistently then we move from training group onto the official team, so this is my next goal.
Hopefully from some point in September, I will have more free time for poker, I am already spending an average of 3-4 hours per day on poker, but I should be able to increase this to 6-7 hours per day once work arrangements have been made for me to take a backseat in the business so I am really looking forward to that - I have a bunch of things to work on with my game and also would like to get in more playing sessions too.
I am still playing on GG poker for the time being, not entirely sure whether I will stay on this site or move, will make a decision on this next month, for now am just trying to get in reps and keep evolving my thought process. I did some digging around on HM3 forums, and it they have released a Beta update to the software which now includes rake for GG poker which is great, so I can now see true winrates with rake included. They are still not able to import hands that are run twice or three times, so still not ideal as these are just missing from the database completely. If you are interested in getting this Beta update you can download it from within this thread; https://forums.holdemmanager.com/showthread.php?t=542235
However they have mentioned that there is a further update coming soon so may be best to just wait for now.
Results from last time I posted on 5th Aug have been pretty good (see below), nice to run well whilst building a sample to show the coaches for review. I am still making a heap of mistakes that I pick up on in post session review that I either did not spot in game, or reverted to old habits, or simply misunderstood completely. I'm not beating myself up about these at all, I can only aim to improve at a consistent rate, and the last week I have played a lot better than the previous week and I hope I will continue to improve.
Patrick Howard said in his blog when talking about improvement that if a struggling player were to take all of the steps he outlines for improvement and implement them, they are almost guaranteed to improve. One of these steps was to filter for pots +15bb's and be able to justify each action in every spot. I tried this, and being 100% honest, I lack the staying power to cover every pot I play over 15bb's :) I do however spend 1 hour per day on review of these spots, so whilst I don't cover them all right now, I am getting through a lot of them, and over time this will uncover my weaknesses as I build a library of mistakes and know where to focus my energy for improvement.
Good luck everyone with their journeys!
Aug. 23, 2020 | 10:57 p.m.
Week 4 Update (delayed)
OK so last week I didn't get round to providing an update but want to keep it all documented for the future, so will do one for last week now and then a new one for this week after the weekend.
So I started working with some of the content from Poker Detox this week, and was playing exclusively 50nl on GG. Again not many hands in total for the week as was doing quite a lot of study of the new material.
In terms of my play, after reviewing hands I was pretty unhappy with how I played a lot of the big pots which on reflection were quite punty, blasting off with a range advantage but not much equity. It seems I have a natural tendency to force aggression, so I need to keep an eye on that and be conscious in game when a big pot scenario arises that I stick to my strategy and don't try and pick up every pot.
I am still redlining in small pots but tanking hard on blue in the larger pots because of this.
I am continuing to study the content and play and hope to make better decisions moving forward.
Graph and stats update (still pre rake so actual results quite a bit worse)
Aug. 6, 2020 | 9:59 a.m.
Week 3 Update
Played a few more hands towards the end of this week but have mostly been studying the bits of information I have from Detox, and from some of their previous courses. Not in the CFP yet officially, am waiting for the call up when they start their next batch of new guys, so in the mean time I have been working on my strategy from what I have available. I have also transitioned to playing 50nl from 25nl as that is going to be limit that I will be playing on the team.
Still playing on GG poker, clearing my deposit bonus, have now released $300/$400. Have not decided if that will be a permanent home for me yet, the rewards are good but the rake is pretty high, I'm going to accurately work out how much for the month of August with proper accounting from HM3, Cashier and the bonuses they pay out, will then make up my mind.
I feel like I have been playing OK, but to be honest everything feels new and different and it is very tiring to play with all of the new things to consider whilst playing. I am enjoying it though very much, and have started to build an office area in the spare bedroom for a dedicated study area with no distractions. pretty excited about that!
Play style has moved dramatically from a declining red line and winning blue to the complete opposite, calling way more on the river which is causing blue line bleed but the effect of not folding as much on the river and attacking certain spots postflop means the winrate is now being generated in large part from non-SD winnings. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues as I develop my strategy and learn more.
Graph since last update below, mix of reg tables and rush n cash, mainly on 50nl.
The sharp dip was 1 brutal session where I lost 3 big pots in quick succession then punted off 2 more before quitting - I was pretty upset about the tilt as this is not normal for me and was totally unnecessary, but I guess it's hard when you are outside your comfort zone, and I forgave myself for this one, we live and learn and move on. I know the feeling I had at the time and should this arise again I will walk away and come back later.
July 26, 2020 | 11:19 p.m.
Looking forward to following along.
Where abouts in Thailand are you? Living alone? What's your daily study and play routine?
July 26, 2020 | 10:26 p.m.
Signed with a CFP team, Poker Detox. Hardly played any hands since last update as have been putting a lot of energy into interview process for the CFPs I applied for, and since getting accepted - getting familiar with the overall strategy they employ before I dive into the course material itself. I'm extremely pumped about this opportunity and intent to give it 110%.
Unfortunately I lack the structure working on my own to stay on a path and end up studying all sorts of random spots and in bursts of enthusiasm followed by a lack thereof, so structure for me is very exciting and can't wait to get stuck in!
July 23, 2020 | 8:29 p.m.
I'm pretty certain the rake not being included is the bulk of the reason. I am trying to fold less and bluff more though, so I am making changes to my strategy, but over such a tiny sample literally anything could happen.
July 17, 2020 | 5:02 p.m.
Week 2 Update
So I have had an interesting week this week since my last post. I applied to 2 x coaching for profits teams and have an interview with both next week, lets see what happens after that. If I make a team then I will have some new immediate new focus and study material to dive into which will put my PIO experiments on hold for the short term, which is fine.
I also starting speaking with a very helpful RIO member by reaching out and asking for help from someone that has had a focused learning path for the last 6 months and the generosity from this person has blown me away in terms of being prepared to help a stranger with poker. People say that networking is one of the greatest skills to have when trying to learn about poker, and I have to say that I wholeheartedly agree with that. I'm already part of another small discord group of friends that I have been with for 1-2 years and most of us are active on this every day - there are always people to bounce ideas off of and talk about hands, and theory, and life stuff too. If you do not already have a network, then I highly suggest trying to find one. If you approach people with an attitude that is positive, a willingness to learn, and also trying to give back as much as you take - then I don't think you can go wrong. There will always be a few misses before you hit gold, but if you keep trying then I am sure you will find the right people to learn with.
I lost another 2lbs in weight this week, so hitting my fitness goals - I have been super consistent with diet & workouts, so at this stage the progress is almost guaranteed as long as I keep following the process. I have been recording my weight and workouts in excel since I started in March, and plotting 2 month graphs of daily weight - have had nice steady results... if only poker were this consistent!!
In terms of playing poker, I switched over to GG poker, mainly because I switched to reg tables on stars, and I had a deposit bonus on GG that I never cleared, and you need to play reg tables not their fast fold format to actually clear it - so moved my playing over there for the last few days. Been very volume as I have been involved in lots of discussions with people about poker as opposed to actually playing much this week. Results do not include rake on GG so they are inflated:
I will hopefully have some new direction in my next post as to what I will be concentrating on next, in the mean time, good skill everyone.
July 17, 2020 | 2:44 p.m.
Week 1 Update, month so far
I decided to play reg tables this week and plan to pretty much exclusively play reg tables for the whole month, just to see what volume I can play. Only 4 tabling on Stars at the moment which is quite slow paced compared with what I am used to do doing, but the idea being I want to think through spots a lot more so slowing right down I think is fine. To start with on reg tables at the beginning of the switch over I found I was playing way too many hands as I felt an urgency to stack the fish before someone else and I think this hurt me. Yes I can adapt my ranges but I can also have patience and just play my game. Overall my stats are looser than what I am used to, but there are times where tables go shorthanded, and I tend to just stick around on tables, even playing some heads up if it goes that way - so this will affect my VPIP/PFR stats.
Results for month so far:
In terms of study which I am ramping up this week I have been trying to look at BBvBTN SRP as a theme. I have been analysing some reports when facing 1/3 PSB and also 2/3 PSB. I am particularly interested in what folding and raising frequencies we have versus Cbets across different textures. Again, I am trying to understand the mechanics of the GTO responses so that I can then use this knowledge to apply to other spots in the game.
I have tried to categorise boards by theme, and then see where they fall in the overall scheme of fold % versus a cbet. The flop is the node that we are going to overfold the most versus MDF do to positional & range disadvantage, but it is quite interesting to see on which boards this amplified and which are more normalising.
I am coming up with more questions than answers at the moment, and need to dive into the solves to look through range explorer to find out what is going in more detail range v range, but it is good to try and spot some overall patterns from the zoomed out view.
I also eliminated the hypothesis that boards that we over fold the most are the ones that we raise the least - there is no correlation between Fold % and Raise % from the sample that I looked at so far.
A sneak peak of the work can be seen below, but once I have finished with my investigations I will post here for discussion.
I am interested to see specifically on how the distribution of a) nuts b) air c) draws d) medium strength parts of range, affect the folding and raising frequencies.
Paired boards constitute by far the highest raise frequencies, and I guess this driven by the fact that there is a greater concentration of nuts and air in both players ranges (more trips and less overall pairs, and also less draws) due to 2 card values being on the flop as opposed to 2.
I also wanted to see how the 'suitedness' of the same flops affected fold and raise frequencies, so I grabbed a few flops from the main report and ran them as rainbow, 2 tone and monotone.
Not surprisingly we raise the least on monotone textures. There is not a huge difference between rainbow and 2 tone flops they are pretty close, but I did expect slightly more raising on 2 tone boards due to the presence of flush draws, so it was interesting to see it slightly in favour of raising on the rainbow flops.
In terms of folding, again the monotone boards force OOP to overfold the most.
Due to OOP having to a) raise a low % and b) overfold significantly versus MDF (which is 25% in the case as the Cbet is 1/3 pot) and c) population probably not knowing how to play these boards well, we can probably abuse this as the IP player and just bet very very often for small sizing and make it profitable:
July 10, 2020 | 4:16 p.m.
Thanks for the comment, yes I will probably shift to more playing time as time moves on, am just in the 'investigation phase' of some study right now, so it's not yet yielding any new strategies to try out just now, am trying to understand some of the underlying mechanics of how PIO works in some spots, will update further on this in due course :)
July 10, 2020 | 12:39 p.m.
My name is Tom, I'm 38 years old (and no, that doesn't qualify me as a boomer!) and I am from Leicester in the UK. I moved to Ireland 2 years ago to live with my partner and start a new way of life. I have played poker on and off for probably at least 10 years now, and have always been in love with the game. I have always had a strong desire to improve, and at times wanted to make it my main source of income, but due to discovering poker after I was already on the career path, it never made sense to give up a well paid job to grind poker for a living, so always remained a part time hobby at best.
My job was based in London when I was living in the UK, and that's a 2-3 hour commute from where I lived, tied with a demanding job I was constantly wrecked tired, days were 15 hours long, and on top of that I had to do a lot of travelling around Europe. I used to download poker videos and watch them on my commute - make notes on my laptop, study spots, record my play and watch it back and look for leaks. Study poker books, the whole lot, but as for playing I only really had a couple of hours at night and the weekend and never stuck to playing and studying for long periods, was a lot more on and off rather than being consistent.
My partner lives in Ireland and we were in a long distance relationship for a few years actually. I was fortunate to be able to negotiate with work doing a lot of my job remotely from Ireland, so we made it work like that for quite a long time but eventually one of us had to make the move and it was always going to be me! She was just taking a business from her Dad and trying to make that work, so I decided after a lot of procrastination to rent out my place, quit my job and move. It was the best thing I ever did - can't believe I was so scared. It seemed like a massive step at the time, losing the security of a £100k/year job, moving to another country etc, but I went from being constantly exhausted to having a life again (less money, but whatever - I don't want for anything and live any different than I did before) I drive an old shitty car rather than a flashy new one, that's about the only difference! Haha
So now I run the business with my partner, work part time, and have loads of time to pursue my hobbies, poker being the main one. I am determined to get better at the game and really make a go of it to be the best I can be, I need somewhere to channel my energy and this feels right. I have been doing a lot of reading about topics I am interested in such as Philosophy, how we learn, forming good habits and achieving goals - you know all that self help type stuff, I really enjoy it and feel that although there a lot of misses, there is some great books out there.
I also decided to get in shape - I was really overweight at the start of this year (5'10 and 244lbs) and built a home gym before Covid kicked off, completely revised my diet and workout routine and have been at it since March 1st. Currently at 204lbs, so just hit the -40lbs milestone!
In terms of poker - why do I call this 'looking through a new lens'? Well, although I have been studying poker for many years, I don't really feel like I made any major breakthroughs until just recently when I started doing some solver work and seeing the game from a new perspective. I fell into the trap that many micro grinders do of thinking of everything in qualitative terms instead of quantitative terms... "Villain can have all these combos that beat me, these guys dont bluff enough, but then the flush draw did brick.... hmmm not sure" to trying to work out what my range looks like, where I am in that range, how my specific blockers affect the distribution etc etc. I am specifically loving how PIO picks it's bluffs and find that quite fascinating. I feel like I am on the verge of a deeper understanding of the game but I'm not there yet - I feel it's quite close, and I hope that through consistent study I am going to get there. Just like my change of diet and workout regime has consistently allowed me to lose 2lbs per week, I hope to gain 2% new poker insight each week in the belief that it will compound.
I'll be sharing my study with you guys and hope that in doing so you will be able to give your insight to me and we can learn from each other.
I have recently applied to a couple of CfP programs as well, I have a lot of energy for poker, but always unsure if I am channelling it in the most efficient way - I am hopeful about these opportunities but if it is not the right time then so be it, I have to forge ahead regardless.
Over the last year I played 10nl, 25nl and then 50nl, before I had to withdraw my bankroll at Christmas, well, I didn't HAVE to, but I decided to as a present for my partner to do up our bedroom, and started again from scratch again this year with $200 which is now $1000, currently playing 25nl.
Had a few months off in total during the last year but these were my results:
I am now fed up of being a 1bb-2bb winner and need to accelerate my learning - so it's all about the study for me now! I am currently doing 2-3 hours of study per day and playing maybe 1-2 hours, that may shift as time goes on, but just grinding a mediocre strategy is pointless at these stakes.
Thank you for reading and I look forward to discussing with you guys more!
July 9, 2020 | 8:32 p.m.
What makes you think KTs is a 3 bet bluff? I don't think you can categorise hands as value bets and bluffs at this stage, I agree we want a linear range in this spot but KTs makes it into the range very easily.
Suited broadways are pretty strong holdings overall - lets consider our villain, who is playing 52/32 (small sample so we wont be too wild with our assumptions).... a standard CO opening range would be around 28% of hands, lets say this guy opens 35% on the CO to be conservative. KTs is way ahead of most of his range and is normally a 3bet as part of a linear range anyway, versus regs, with normal opening ranges. You also assume he does not fold enough as well, even better, we're now in an even more profitable spot.
I know playing OOP in 3 bet pots is tricky to navigate but it's one of the more common spots that will occur when you start opening up your blind 3 bet ranges to defend against steals, so you just have to study them and get better at them.
BBvCO open I would be looking to 3b nearly all suited broadways, JJ+, some freq of 77-TT, some freq of suited connectors, suited Aces, some lower suited kings. Around about a 10% linear range in this spot seems good. I think the players you will face at these limits will generally over fold, and if they are fishy and have really wide ranges to start with and under fold then even better.
July 9, 2020 | 4:44 p.m.
Versus CO you can be 3 betting this combination preflop as a standard, especially as we have an early read that the player may be somewhat out of line with 52/36 VPIP PFR after a small sample.
On the river you have to call $1.15 into a pot of $4.38 (this would be the size of the pot after you call) - therefore you have to win the pot more than 26% of the time to show a profit. Given the reads on villain I think you can draw an easy conclusion that this should be a profitable call in the long run, he could easily be raising a worse hand for value and could be completely out of line bluffing frequencies.
Versus a player profile that was nitty, on a paired board, they will probably just be calling your river bet of pot most of the time with dominated flushes. It's also possible that they do not raise their boats on the turn when you lead out. So I think it becomes somewhat closer decision.
July 9, 2020 | 3:55 p.m.
Hey good luck in your journey!
I like the disciplined approach, and whilst I will not knock it, it does seem like a heavy schedule, but you will know what is achievable after you give it a shot for a while.
One of your bullet points is to 'make a plan for the hand as a line postflop' - just be careful with this one, if you mean after you have seen the flop, then different turns and rivers are going to affect what actions you take by a huge amount. Always assess how good the turn card is for your range and your opponents range and then try and estimate what your hand now wants to do given the shift in equities that occur with each subsequent card that comes down.
(4). Exploiting passivity by over folding/under bluffing:
Whilst this feels like it is true - I am questioning this logic after an insightful post from Saulo Ribeiro which i will link you here (just scroll down to the bottom of the comments section)
Whilst it is true that if you are facing a bluff catching decision on the river and you dominate some of villain's value range then it makes a call a lot easier, but you are going to have to make some uneasy bluff catches as well. Consider your blockers, and your range that you get to this point with. Villain will be offering you a price on a call with his bet size, so you only need to be right a fraction of the time, depending on betsize, to be break even and ultimately profitable in this situation, so blindly folding all bluff catchers will just get you ran over. Have a go at making some bluff catching decisions that you think are close, mark the hands, post them for review, and once you have a decent sample of these you can review how many you win, compare the EV of fold to EV of call - and then you have some data to work with.
Again, good luck, sounds like you have a great structured approach, if you follow through with it you are bound to do well.
July 9, 2020 | 3:39 p.m.
By using the nodelocking tool in the solver. You can make reads on villain or population and force them to act differently and the solver will then re-solve to give you the new strategy which maximally exploits these changes.