The thing with live players even regs (in the games I play and from the tendencies I've seen) is they don't have a xr range here.They are used to people calling their depol cbet on the flop... and they really uncomfortable even with AA 300 bb deep(almost 500 because straddle was only this hand).
Nov. 26, 2019 | 9:39 p.m.
5k eff 10/10/20 H CO 70 KTs(hh) V sb 3b 300 call.
F:Kd5d2s V cbet 200 H raises 550 call
R:7s x H 450 V calls.
First my info on V. He is a tight pro,his range from the sb is merged(88+,AK,AQ) but I think the straddle 20 might push it towards a tighter range (TT+,AQ).
Now on the flop... being 5k deep I raise it here because: 1.I saw him use a depol cbet range (meaning he can cbet 33% with tt-jj,aq) so this means I can extract some light value on the flop (I don't expect him to fold a pair to a 2.5 x raise). Now,the second reason is being that deep,he has an auto x turn and has to play pot control vs me , and I get to showdown cheaper than x-ing flop and guess turn.So IMO the flop always goes xc in his view,and turn x.
This being the reasoning ... my question here is: Is too light of a river value? In this specific hand V shows AA, and I think I might value own myself in this specific spot.