Mikhail Kotelnikov's avatar

Mikhail Kotelnikov

40 points

Hi, Ben! Very interesting video and Pio sim research!
I often hear from you about preffered betsizing. But is it really that matters? Eg i make sims on gto+ for the 765ss spot from that video for ip 38% and 80% bet on flop and ev results are quit the same. 59.85 ev for 38% bet strategy and 59.07 ev for 80% bet strategy. Is that $0.78 ev difference is that huge? And maby we could choose different unexpected for opps (or easier for us) sizing strateges that will cause our opponents make bigger mistakes, eg 80% ip on that board?

March 9, 2019 | 4:13 a.m.

3:12 on QJT74ss after you oberbet turn, don't you think valuebetting KK, AA is too thin?
His range seems - on half 2pairs+, on half (or less) one pair.
And it seems all 2pairs will call 170 bet to 127 pot.
Maby pushing then 400 to 127 (AK, bluffs) - opps will overfold here i guess. And having second regular sizing for our 2pairs+ valuerange?

Feb. 19, 2019 | 9:38 a.m.

Hi guys!

The question is about Pio simulations:UTG raise and SB flats (ranges are rough), several betsizings - 33%, 50%, 65%, 130%. Flop J52r. Then UTG CB 33% sizing preferably and what surprised me is that Pio suggest SB range to raise 71% if UTG will not tribet on flop and 28% raise if UTG will have tribet option.
Equities of flop are quit close - 51% UTG, 49% SB.

Do you have any ideas why OOP raises that often?
And how to exploit guys who obviously will not raise that often?

Feb. 17, 2019 | 11:41 a.m.

Hey, great video, guys!

On 9:34 on A65Q7 3bp 33%CB-X-33%bet action
If we were our opponent we usually would like to play hands like KK-Qx, AA that way right? Maby even JJ i think.
And ip range is weak as well.
So is there any merit to add some nut hands for both ranges for them to be more balanced?

As played, we both have mid-weak ranges i think and our opponents lack pure bluffs i guess as you mentioned, he mainly bet it on turn. And IP range is mainly mid-small paires, some Ax.
So is there a merit to add more pressure on OOP range in general - pushing weak toppaires (even though it's unclear it will be ever called by worse) and lower pairs as bluff?

Feb. 16, 2019 | 7:26 a.m.

Hey, great video! I saw you split sizings in several cases so that 33% bet consist of weaker hands (middle paires, toppairs+weak kickers, ace highs) and 75% bet consist of stronger hands - toppair with big kickers, nuts etc.
Its on 18:05 on K62ss with 88, on 20:50 with Q9 on Q37ss, 29:47 on 68Qr.

Wouldn't opponents exploit this situation with attaking your smaller bet sizing, what do you think? Is there a need to balance this sizing with some nuts?

Feb. 14, 2019 | 5:34 a.m.

Hi, Juan!
Nice video!
I have some questions:

37:00 J23ss. You said we have to raise 15% at least with our range. How did you came to this number?
Also about this hand - maby to lead the club turn, because with that sizing our opponent usualy will have hands like 55 or ace hi? Specially when we block the nuts.

43:00 You talked about conception to call more when faced small bet and to raise more when faced big bet. I did hear about it earlier but it seems that people tend to bet small with weak hands and its easlier to barrel them off that kind of hands. And isn't it better to let polar (big size) range barrel into us (not raise it)?

Oct. 10, 2015 | 7:36 p.m.

Ohh, you're right :) Will try to fix a bit later :)

Oct. 8, 2015 | 9:21 a.m.

Hi, Kevin!

I like the way you simplify the approximations by how people will actually play and for the alternative view I ran this hand on PioSolver to see how it should play by gto.
Don't know if it actually gives us gto answers :)

Preflop range for opp as you specified

Than I entered turn bet sizes as 75 and 144%

The suggested play was to overbet this spot 25% of time and do not make regular size bet basically.
Although we see that vs well ballanced opponent we will not gain much with overbet vs regular size bet - less than one bb usually. Here are pics for QQ and 44:

Opp should fold 64% and surprisingly call almost all A2-A5 !

It's interesting that system suggested not to bet KT without fd and for example to bet only like half of QT hands.
But I think I would bet KT here too because I feel most people will underdefend :) (will fold A2-A5)

Although you mentioned that you can bet bigger sizing on river if your range have bigger equity.
Just curious why is it because I thought that we could bet any amount if we properly balance our range?

Oct. 7, 2015 | 2:29 p.m.

Hi, Ben!
43:00 ATcc hand.
I tried to simulate it on crev and that what I got:
Your 3bet:

Isildur's call:

When you called on flop, you have ~50% equity:

But when you called on turn you have a better situation (a little surprising)!
Called by 2nd pair+, 1pair+gutshot... -58%

If called less litely - tp+,2nd pair+gutshot... -48%

And I have a couple of question:
1. It seems like ATcc is bet sometimes/check sometimes on flop. But why whould you ever bet if you have only 50% equity when called?
2. It seems like Isildur will call 70-80% on turn vs bet. Would you consider slight overbet with your range in this case? Like 130% of pot to give him hard time calling with draws and paires? It's not standard i guess because we will have only 62% size bet on river.

Oct. 3, 2015 | 5:58 p.m.

Hi, Juan!
Great video, really liked it!

23:15 543cc board. You said that you encouraged to raise 55,33 hands. What do you think is it reasonable to raise less frequent with TT, let say 70% of sets and only 30% of TTc?

28:15 5sJ3sQs board. 3way not always betting QJ 2x2 on turn you said. We tighten up out range and polarising it because we against stronger range (2 people) and we block possible calling hands and in their ranges there are more AK like hands to bluff now on turn because less likely they cbet them on flop 3 way, right? What frequencies do you think will be right - say, 90% bet headsup and 40% 3way and how to figure out good frequencies?

33:57 KK 4bet. The sizing is 247 vs 90 3bet - what are the argument for this sizing and not lower, like 190? Because i remember that 4bets was smaller some time ago.

35:00 - btn vs bb on 536ss. I agree that button is capped on the flop and bb going to raise cbet more. And you was going to raise K6 35% of the time. What are the benefits in merging bb raising range vs raising polar (most of the sets+ and bluffs)?

Sept. 9, 2015 | 2:28 p.m.

Hi, Mark!
29:30 set on 39dTd: Don't we make both players folding Tx? Do we have to just call with some portion of sets? We will get to turn with uncapped range and opps will have mid hands in their range like AJ, JT, J7.

Sept. 6, 2015 | 6:21 p.m.

Hi Ben!
For the first hand I compared check on river vs bet and that's what I got:
I assumed your squeeze range is: 99+,Aj+,KQ,all suted broadway, T9s,A9s,A4-5s.
On the turn you bet everything except 99, A4-5s,A9s w/o fd, thats 90.5% cbet turn.

On the river the ranges are:

Very nut heave range for opponent.
Than comparing check and all in for opponent:
check

all in

So the difference is pretty big - 19bb.
Only value cards sb loosing when betting are T9s,K9s.

Sept. 5, 2015 | 4:36 p.m.

Hi, Ben!

15:15 AK on 3Kh6hAhQ - why to bet small vs weak player? You expect to get called by 2 pair which he will call vs like 70% bet i think.

July 4, 2015 | 3:33 p.m.

His bluff range is:

Air: QT, T9s which he decided not to bluff riv, but decided to bluff off your thin valuebets

Blockers: 89ss, A8ss, 8Tss, 87ss (12 combs)

Value: 55, 88, (JJ - say 50%) ~5 combs total


So even if he uses third of his blockers it should enough to call for you.


March 7, 2014 | 8:36 a.m.

Really like your idea to count most and least profitable appproximations.

March 7, 2014 | 8:13 a.m.

Hand History | Mikhail Kotelnikov posted in PLO: plo200 zoom turn spot
BN: $147.58
SB: $38.98
BB: $258.53 (Hero)
UTG: $450.20
HJ: $376.28
CO: $200
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 5 Q K Q
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $4.75, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $2.75
Flop ($10.50) K 7 6 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $8, Hero calls $8
Turn ($26.50) K 7 6 T (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $19, Hero folds
Final Pot
CO wins $25.31

Sept. 8, 2013 | 6:14 p.m.

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