Better to fold pre with the bad suits but at some tables it'd be fine so we or if it was suited the good way we can open at tables we don't have really aggressive guys behind. I'm never cbetting this flop but plolearnerguy you seem pretty confident in a bet so maybe you could elaborate a bit and help me out. As played I call turn. We definitely have enough equity vs. a turn probe range on 9h. On river facing a barrel I don't think AQ63 makes the cut for Axxx hands we defend with and it probably needs to be 2pair+ but I wouldn't fault you for it especially if you believe he's overbluffing this spot due to your flop xback.
April 18, 2019 | 12:22 p.m.
I get that +$315 is only 12% of the existing pot but I don't understand what it means that our opponent's potshare is now 88% of the pot. I might be missing something, but to me it doesn't track that the 88% number has any meaning whatsoever. Can somebody please help me with this?
"Remember that your opponent's EV is the pot size minus your EV." Our EV on a shove with AQQ9 was +$315, but how does that make our opponent's EV +$2235 when we choose the shove option and our +315?
April 18, 2019 | 11:38 a.m.
Live PLO w/ this straddle format is the absolute nuts fwiw.
1) 4455s Raise size = pot to fold out btn as much as possible and limit the likelihood it goes multiway since this hand is very valuable when we manage to capture position and there are 3 or less players (but 4 isn't an auto-lose. 5 players and we're now x/f sets to a single bet on the flop). When btn continues we definitely lose maneuverability but our hand is pure enough to win the favorable boards for our range in a game where most of the players that'll be in that hand w/ you are player types likely to telegraph their hand strength one way or another. I do wish we were deeper but this stack is still fine. But I'd always fold if expecting to get called by an avg of 4.5 players (if one guy calls it dominoes most of the table to call along) behind. Pairs to pot 5544/5533/5522/6655/6644/7766/7755/7722/8877/8866/8855/8822/9988/9977/9966/9922/and then all the TTxx+. The bold is an interpretation I'm making based on what I've observed from the Monker PF solution but am not sure if the blocker effects that the 22xx combos should have on the ranges of players who see a flop (even fish know to fold junky 2xxx hands) should give us higher pot share when saw flop. Dunno seems right tho.
2) AKsJsT this hand only likes VERY specific flops particularly in this dynamic but also speaking generally. Doublesuited the good way then we flop favorable matchups often enough to juice it but since you said you have no fold equity that means you get to choose the postflop SPR by just 5x'ing whatever your sizing. SPR> 4.5-5 should be best for equity realization.
3) Make the KJT4ds a KJT7ds+ and pot it. The position of the straddle is offering us a tempting situation with the KJT4 but in this situation it may as well be missing a 4th card unless the game is VERY showdown-averse which would prob be a first in history all-time ever for live PLO.
April 15, 2019 | 3:38 a.m.
We have ultimate position plus squeeze effects on the flop or turn and when we flop strong we get to scoop that equity as well as mistake-equity from the squeeze effects and the usual OOP-related mistakes. When the board is awkward for the ranges ahead of us and/or our blockers tell us enough information to claim the pot we always have the visibility to do so. The solver isn't just giving your opponents a bit too much credit it's giving them WAY too much credit and we should absolutely be able to force the minimum (far more imo) number of over-folds to flat this hand profitable.
April 15, 2019 | 1:31 a.m.
My comments are if your hand is QQ98 as I'm reading in the HH, not QQ99 as stated in the thread title. If QQ99 and readless I like x/f turn.
He has quite a few autofolds to a turn barrel here and blocking the 9 helps b/c his lightest/bad continues contain 9's so we remove some of the random/stupid stuff we might otherwise be worried about stickiness from. The 4d is a really terrible card for his range where he's forced to fold all non-flushes so I like bet turn/give up river and would expect it to win as often as he doesn't have a flush which apparently is ~65% based on the PPT range you gave.