Blinds 10/20 no ante.
LJ (fish, stack 3000) raises to 55,
Hero, BTN (2940) calls with JTdd.
SB (reg, stack 2740) 3bets to 280. Folds to LJ who folds, hero calls.
Flop Qc8d5s. Pot is 635, Villain bets 211, hero calls.
Turn Kd. Pot is 1057, Villain (2249) bets 957. Hero (2449) folds.
I don't see how villain has any bluffs in this spot, giving her a very nutted range of QQ+, AK+ at the very least. Her hand strength doesn't really matter as we have roughly 30% equity against all holdings of Qx or better, and she's very much committed at this point. I don't see villain ever folding to a shove, and needing ~47% equity to just call makes it seem to me that the only viable option is to fold.
I was considering 3betting preflop to isolate, and possibly folding to a 4bet depending on size.
Is floating flop too marginal? I gave SB a range of JJ+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo, which we have ~27% equity against, needing 25% to break even. I was considering implied odds given how deep we we're. Still, should we try to avoid these break even spots against strong regs?
Jan. 24, 2019 | 10:31 p.m.
Svenska Spel hype!
Nice video, having a separate notepad to write down more detailed notes on players is something i hadn't considered, then again i have very little experience with heads up, only trying to play some recently.
I just have a question about the client itself. Since the hand history isn't saved locally, do you have any suggestions on how to review hands outside of recording yourself?
Sept. 2, 2018 | 8:17 p.m.
It's possible for him to call a 4bet much wider than just QQ+ and AK as he will have position on us. When you check an ace high board here, villain could certainly stab with his QQ-99 hands, so i wouldn't immediately give up on the flop. Furthermore, with two kings in our hand, the probability of villain holding exactly AK goes down significantly.
Let's construct a range for ourselves here. What hands are in our 4betting range? Let's for arguments sake say its JJ+ and AK. What hands are we c-betting and what are we checking? We probably only want to be betting with AK for value, and checking the pairs. AA blocks alot of the hands we want to get called by, and the others just want to get to showdown. So when we check the flop, villain can often assume that we don't hold an ace.
I would call flop. We will have AA in our range here, making it tough for villain to fire twice with a hand like JJ or TT. Against continued aggression i will be folding.
April 1, 2018 | 10:20 a.m.
Heading into the flop, we have to acknowledge the fact the sb cold called a 3bet, making his range fairly strong and certainly contains a bunch of Qx. That said, when he shows us that he's unlikely to be folding his hand when he leads, we have to establish a range ourselves of what hands we are willing to go with.
I'd say 88 is at the bottom of our range here, but i would probably fold despite the SPR. I would stack of with TT+, Qx and maybe AKh (it has bad blockers, less likely he's donking a fd, but it has very good equity).
Given the cold call pre it's very unlikely villain has a 7 in his hand, so i would construct his range as alot of queens, mid pairs and flushdraws. I would expect KK and AA to often go allin preflop. So our 88 is not in a great shape against this range, since most flushdraws will also have overcards to our pair.
March 30, 2018 | 12:12 p.m.
Overbet shoving the turn for protection is an unecessary line. The hands you in theory are protecting against are flush draws (which would realistically be hands like KJh and KTh which obviously are impossible) and the worse Ax you are mentioning have 3 outs to outdraw you on the river, which are hands you want value from. Seeing as we block a lot of the heart draws i wouldn't be afraid of much.
I would x/c turn if he bets, and probably fold to a shove on the river. We only beat a bluff, which are a few random busted flush draws, and there's a ton of hands he could have that have us beat. It's a tough decision if he shoves turn, but depending on the buyin i'm probably calling with top pair and a gutshot.
Most importantly, you are never getting a better hand than yours to fold the turn to a shove.