So my 3B pot pop up looks a lot like this with a bit of 4B pot stats as well. Purrrrty. All the x's mark blanks stats so next week I will spend my entire study day creating stats to plug in.
Aug. 3, 2020 | 2:33 a.m.
All 3 vs regs
^ Hand # 1 I just had a feeling if he doesn't take the bait on the flop I should slip him some extra rope and it seems to have worked out. I'm blocking one combo of AJs at least, and I may be wrong but calling Tx might be the absolute nut bluffcatcher here although I feel I have to defend my AA as well vs a laggy profile in this spot. Obviously I tank called the turn to make myself look super weak ha.
^ Hand # 2 my 66 hand might look too wide but the guy had 3% 3b over 400 hands and was pretty shocked to see T8s. The board along with my 6h blocks a lot of his natural flush combo's and I pretty much never put him on 9x considering his 3b range. So I'm just targeting a sticky overpair tbh. If I run into a backdoor AKhh or AQhh or some random 9x like 98s then so be it I guess. But he didn't seem like the type to bet-call A hi's and bc he didn't donk jam the riv I just have to assume he lacks a lot of flushes. It's possible I inferred too much from the sample bc he did in fact show up with T8s, so perhaps I need to think about this spot.
^ Hand # 3 I honestly don't even know what this reg was thinking. 25NL regs for sure pretty much never have 9x in their 4 bet range in this spot. If he had 99 I expect him to cb the flop and if he goes for a x jam he would probably bet turn a little bigger to force out some random overcard equity. But their 99 combo's or T9s/J9s are severely lacking compared to the # of those combo's I have in my range as the defender.
Aug. 3, 2020 | 2:08 a.m.
So I think I'll grind 6 days a week, 7 hours per day 4 tabling Stars normal games. Study 4 hours per day then do one very long day of studying. I'm getting 100 hands per hour which I'm very surprised by but stars really spits them out pretty quick. I have about $6,300 total between liferoll and bankroll. Considering my visa ends in 50 days, I have no idea what is going to happen but I'll either have to pay another $1,000 for another visa or buy a ticket and head to a new country. Another stimulus check from the US govt may or may not be issued again. The political system in America is absolute fascist trash right now so nobody really knows what is going to happen.
Because I'm a huge bankroll nit and I am trying to recover from the worst variance I've ever experienced, I'm starting back at 25NL. Games look pretty soft, even the regs make LOL plays that just make no sense. It seems I'm more aware of how to exploit them now too. I would say whatever imbalances they have, they tend to exist in extremes so aggro players you can just x call most of your range and passive players you can make pretty tight folds confidently. There are also quite a few 14/11 5% 3b types that you can just auto open BTN or SB and very confidently steal their blind money.
Last night + today was my big study day. I created flop multi-reports starting with 23 texture batch for all possible 3b pre by position. 23 flop textures should be a very solid baseline to study each flop meticulously. Even within the 23 flops you have some that seem fairly similar such as A85, A73 or AK4 and AJ4 or T94, T84 so imo I can probably cut a few of them out. Maybe get it down to 18 or so. Once I learn these textures like the back of my hand then seeing other textures with slight deviations should come pretty naturally.
I overhauled my HUD pop ups, added in pre flop raise sizes, pre flop 3b sizes etc - you get some annoying spots where regs/recs open 3.5x or 4x or 3b 13.5bb's etc and it's gonna be super nice to look at the pop up to see their frequencies.
Basically I'm just trying to take it easy, win some easy money, and study 3 bet pot theory for the next 3 months. I'm not too worried about profit at this time. With optimal play, profit will come. It's still very possible I make enough the first 6 weeks that I can move back into 50NL comfortably. But who knows. Can't control variance, it doesn't really care about you.
Considering I've grinded 50NL and 100NL the past 8 months, 25NL really should be a walk in the park but obv have to stay razor sharp to squeeze out every ounce of EV.
Aug. 3, 2020 | 1:53 a.m.
I was living on $200 a month for 3 months. That is going pretty hardcore though lol
Currently I'm living fairly comfortably on $400/month and some of that is H2N range research subscription, and I'm paying for RIO essential subscription as well. $80 a month for food, $130 for my apartment. Everything else is very low cost.
Aug. 3, 2020 | 1:38 a.m.
to be fair, I was not at all concerned about "theory" in any way.
I am just simply asking if the solver says our EV is 2.5 by jamming (assuming their calling range is pretty accurate), then it makes the jam OK.
All options look bad here. X jamming, X folding, X calling, Cbetting small, etc - they all feel pretty bad options - by jamming at least we get some baby pairs to fold and get value from draws - but I also know the T9x texture will hit them pretty hard.
fish was not pfr, flats the original open raise on BTN then flats my Squeeze
so considering what the maximally highest EV adjustment should be, I don't see one here lol - I'm just trying to avoid losing money and if it says jamming is +EV then it seems fine. Because as I said all other options feel icky as well.
Aug. 2, 2020 | 11:41 a.m.
So I squeeze 15 BB's, fish calls me IP. Flop comes T93 with flush draw, we are unblocking FD's our AK has no hearts.
Flop pot size is 34 bb's, fish has 50 bb's remaining.
Using a solver it's saying jamming AK here is +EV (2.5) even when the solver giving 100% of 22-88 in villains calling range which I view as kind of pessimistic. I'd say maybe they call 75% of their baby pairs here?
It didn't give JQs/KQ so I manually added those in to GTO+ grid calling range bc I think most recs will snap off st8 draw and KQ here.
I was hoping anyone could give a little insight into this spot because my brain is having a hard time understanding it. If we jam and they snap with 22 we still have 6 outs to improve to better pair. It's a value jam vs some of their range and has 25% equity vs most of their 1 pair holdings.
So if the solver says our EV is 2.9 it basically means if we open fold our EV is 0 - so by jamming AK we are taking back 2.5 EV of the current pot which is 34.
Obviously we will get some bad flops sometimes with our AK here but even on T93 the solver is showing positive EV with jamming.
Also a lot of the fringe range like K3s/A3o I gave 25% weights as their defends pre flop.
Thank for any insight you can provide.
Aug. 1, 2020 | 1:22 p.m.
Not at all interested in the vlogger type channels, etc. Requesting any channels that have hardcore analysis, or well known midstakes/highstakes regs that stream and talk about their decision making, etc. So far I have these
July 27, 2020 | 6:50 p.m.
You probably need a specific read where he showdowns with something like TT/Jx/Q9hh to rationalize calling turn - even giving 100% of BDNF draws and all 87s (like 11 combos?) , the board still smashes his entire range and if he's that aggro he could very well barrel AK.
Folding turn can't be bad here though - it's annoying to have to fold vs aggro players but sometimes the board texture simply just favors them and there isn't much you can do.
Just make detailed notes on what he showdowns with and make adjustments accordingly.
As for the 1/3 otr I wouldn't be surprised to see AK, but 1/3 riv bets from what I remember in population data are pretty much never bluffs and usually it's a middle strength hand (like AK) that wants more of your chips.
July 27, 2020 | 8:10 a.m.
Today I spent 3 hours updating my Hand 2 Note HUD for Pokerstars. I set myself up for long term success by creating a new study routine and collected hands in HM2 to begin studying. The next 14 weeks I will be focusing exclusively on 3 bet pots. Hero 3bets and Hero defends vs 3bets. Then spend 2 weeks focusing specifically on 3bet pot situations where I may want to bluff raise and how to follow through on future streets. Or I am facing a raise on any street and how to continue in such a situation. Couple days ago I created a decision itinerary so the next 1,000 hands I study I will use this line of thinking exactly every time. So that in game during any situation my thought process will be streamlined and use the exact same model each and every time. Eventually no information will be absent from the thought process. No hiccups will occur. No spontaneity or surprises. Cold, calculated robotic thought process day in day out.
July 27, 2020 | 6:26 a.m.
I have been alone since I landed in Thailand over a year ago.
My daily study/grind routine would typically be a 70/30 split, something like 6 hours a day of grinding split between 2 or 3 sessions - and 3 to 4 hours of study. Study I suppose could be considered anything you do with poker that is not grinding such as watching a video, chit chatting about hands in skype with a group. But I'll do 3 hours of more intense analysis, solver work, population analysis, database analysis, etc. At least that is the goal, it doesn't always happen this way =)
I kind of want to go back to stars and do something like 3 normal tables + 1 zoom table. 6 hours a day with that set up should net pretty close to 90k hands a month I think. All these chinese apps with random bans, shitty software and high rake make me wonder how much of a difference in winrate you could expect especially since onkleb is showing close to 8bb over 1 million hands at 200z and Psek1 showing over 7bb at 200NL normal tables.
July 27, 2020 | 5:11 a.m.
^ first 200k hands immediately after arriving in Thailand. Mostly 3 tabling zoom.
^ This was when I was emotionally devastated. The girl I loved most in my life was being manipulative. Things were not working out. I eventually made the hard decision to cut her out of my life entirely and forever. Coupled with making some inexperienced financial decisions. I paid out money for private coaching. I bought 1 year sub to Hand 2 Note. I bought CREV and GTO+. I paid off some debt in America. Basically a decent chunk of my $10k starting roll got eaten up in a very short time. This just added to the stress. Needless to say I bounced back. I learned my lessons. I made some hard decisions. Poker comes first. Anything that interferes with this needs to be cut out.
^Total stars winrate
^The b/e at 50NL on this site was the most insane cooler-variance I ever faced. KK vs AA all day every day, sets, boats, nut flushes etc coolered all day every day, etc. You know how it is. The recs have to get lucky sometimes too =)
^Everything was super easy, coasting along
^Until I wasn't lol - but this sample I learned some things too. Just bc you are doing well does not mean you are justified to become arrogant and start adding huge #'s of tables. I was 12 tabling for a bit, cut back to 10. Cut back further to 8. Now I just decided to go to 6 yesterday. So learning your limits and staying disciplined enough to follow your limits even during good times shows professionalism and maturity.
July 26, 2020 | 2:51 p.m.
Hi everyone, this is going to be a personal journal/blog/challenge thread where I am going to make some pretty big claims. As the title says I have been eating, sleeping, breathing, sweating, bleeding, crying poker for the past 15 months in Thailand. I started the journey last year with $10,000 which was 1 year of expenses and 100 minimum BI's for 25NL. Currently I do not possess more money than I started with. This is not acceptable. I have survived many months on $200 to $500. I have drank a lot of bubble tea and eaten a lot of pork belly.
I'm not going to post pics of winrates in my intro, but I will do so in later posts. It is important to be transparent.
Some people say to make the goals realistic. I say nahhhh, you got it all wrong. If you shoot for the moon and come short but land on an asteroid thousands of miles from the Earths atmosphere, this is still objectively better than aiming for the asteroid and only making a few hundred miles outside of the atmosphere.
I will find success in poker. A breakthrough is always right around the corner.
So here are my Moby Dick level claims:
1.) This is a PHD program for me. Before you start making $100,000+ a year as a PHD in any field, you have to seriously put out. Only having put out hard for ~1 year so far puts things into perspective.
2.) Within 12 months I will be crushing 200NL. In 24 months I will be crushing 500NL. In 36 months I will be crushing 1KNL.
3.) I am going to go big with a 1,000 deep HH analysis challenge. Every day I will post as deep and detailed of an analysis as I know how.
4.) Before I start 200NL shots I will deepen my pockets substantially. 2 years of expenses and 100 BI's for 100NL then I will take my shots.
5.) I will join the best poker CFP program in the world. How do I know it's the best? Because being a glass half full kind of guy is +EV.
6.) After finishing this CFP program I will begin taking on my own students and doing 100k contracts and will be known as one of the best coaches on the planet.
7.) I have a hard time getting myself to exercise after losing streaks. This will end. David Goggins says to do something every day you hate. I hate exercising. That's why I need to do it. So losing 30 lb's and doing 100 consecutive pushups within 12 months is my fitness goal.
A few things I have learned so far in 1 year of solitude in the grind.
1.) Mindset is King. It does not matter what your technical abilities or knowledge is. If you cannot control your mindset, you will fail.
2.) Mindset is King. It does not matter what your technical abilities or knowledge is. If you cannot control your mindset, you will fail.
3.) Mindset is King. It does not matter what your technical abilities or knowledge is. If you cannot control your mindset, you will fail.
4.) Poker may not come easy to me like it does others. All the more miraculous when I succeed. Tenacious perseverance is Queen.
5.) Personally, deep rolls helps with my mindset. 1 year expenses and 100 BI's for me should be minimum. My goal is 2 years expenses.
6.) Discipline, self reflection, mental leaks are all things that can be functionally improved through practical daily exercises.
7.) My daily ritual routine, daily ritual phrase are my personal religion and lifeblood. Without this I will fail.
Funny how both lists came out to be #7. Lucky Lucky ;)
Let's fucking go. The grind is real.*
July 26, 2020 | 12:48 p.m.
Hi I sent a message to both Saulo and Zinhao. I hope it is well received =)
July 23, 2020 | 2:39 a.m.
SNAP call, recs are more mergy than you think and they could be doing this with AJ, QQ, JK and lots of broken st8 draws.
I would just jam turn though.
Aug. 10, 2019 | 6:59 a.m.
Hello. I was hoping someone, anyone could offer specificity in relationship to pokerstars and Albania.
many articles online are saying online poker has been written into law as being illegal starting January 1st of 2019.
Some of these articles say pokerstars is on the "blacklist"
Many of the articles suggest that they aren't enforcing ISP bans at this time.
I spoke to Pokerstars live chat and they promised me their ISP is not being blocked within Albania.
Anyone have personal experience with this? Albania is such a perfect country for me as I am American Citizen and they have amazing relationship with USA so I can stay there 1 year with no visa, pretty much no questions asked.
Aug. 2, 2019 | 4:27 a.m.
Cliff notes: Bet 10% of their stack size on the flop and you're golden for getting a 1spr on the river. Use vs the weakest regs and recs. If super deep, 3bet bigger or 4bet bigger pre flop.
Test out for yourself my 10% rule
July 20, 2019 | 9:39 a.m.
Testing some things out I get
((Stack-pot)/2))/4=Flop Bet Size (we subtract flop stack size from villain stack size, then divide that by 2. Then we divide that by 4. This is our flop bet size.
Villain has 300bb left. Pot is 20bb OTF.
Hero bets 35 OTF. Pot is now 90bb. Villain has 265BB.
265-90=175/3=58. (using turn chunk equation)
Hero bets 58, pot is now 206. Villain has 207 left.
Villain has 150bb left. Pot is 20bb OTF.
Hero bets 16. Pot is now 52 OTT. Villain has 134bb left.
134-52=84/3=28. (using turn chunk equation)
Hero bets 28 OTT. Pot is now 108. Villain has 106 left.
Villain has 50bb left. Pot is 4.5bb OTF.
Hero bets 5.5 OTF, pot is now 15.5. Villain has 45 remaining.
45-15=30/3 = 10 (using turn chunk equation)
Hero bets 10 ott, pot is now 35. Villain has 35 left.
Upon closer look it looks like around 11% or 12% of their Flop stack-pot size is the flop bet size we need to set up a 3 street plan.
It also seems like in the 1st example we are overbetting 35 into 20 and then betting only about 60% pot OTT, because villains stacks was exceptionally large to begin with. Perhaps as a default if their stack size is exceptionally large we can take slightly lower around 9% instead of 11% or 12%. 9% of 300 starting stack is 27 so we get...
Pot size ott is 65. Villain has 238bb left.
Using turn chunking equation we get 238-65=173/3=57
If hero bets 57 OTT (about 85% pot), pot is now 179 OTR. Villain has 181 bb left.
So if stack was exceptionally large, we slightly overbet the flop (27 into 20)
We then bet 85% OTT (Normal sized bet). We then have 1SPR on the river.
Now of course if we are exceptionally deep, 3betting or 4betting a slightly larger sizing would make sense. So the 20bb starting pot size might not be totally accurate.
Upon further testing, 10% seems to work in all situations
Vs weaker players, opening 3x, 4x, 5x BB pre flop would do great benefit to our post flop pot geometry to try to get entire stacks in.
Vs super deep stacks, 3betting to 12bb, 13bb, 14bb or betting to 30bb would help greatly to set up proper bet sizes post flop.
July 20, 2019 | 9:13 a.m.
Hello. Does anyone know a equation for setting up a 3 street bet size geometry so that on the river we end up with 1spr?
My coach gave me a 2 street equation which is basically.
(Villains stacks size-Current pot size)/3
So if pot is 20bb OTF and villain has 90BB remaining we do the following.
90-20=70/3=~23 so then if we bet 23bb on the flop, the pot is now 66bb and villain has 67bb remaining, a perfect 1spr.
But he is unsure about a 3street equation.
Please help if you know this or can figure it out lol
July 20, 2019 | 8:40 a.m.
Hi, I notice there are so many "pros" posting videos. I have already watched many and found some to be quite enlightening.
However, being a skeptic at heart makes me wonder if they are all winners at their stakes. Also it's important to know how big of winners a coach is because obviously not every "pro" is the best pro out there and their advice is not equal. I am not trusting enough to believe every pro is crushing their limit or even has at least a 2bb/100. There are obviously some extremely well known pro's but the logic does not follow that every pro is a huge winner.
Just wondering if this has been discussed ad nauseum already, if there are links to all the coaches bio's and proof of winrates. Any mods that can state openly what the qualifications are for "hiring" a pro and giving them access to post whatever videos they wish to post?
Sept. 27, 2017 | 8:38 p.m.
"I did shut up, listen more, and stop whining."
Sept. 21, 2017 | 8:24 p.m.
Listen more. Shut up more. Stop whining so much. You are not special, you are just another 5NL loser. Repeat these words in the mirror every day and you will get to 10NL.
You're acting like you are Rocky Balboa who just took down Ivan Drago in Rocky 4. You are not Rocky and beating 2NL is not equivalent to beating Ivan Drago. You're still that runt in the boxing class that keeps getting beat up by that other kid who is half your size.
GL on your journey.
Sept. 21, 2017 | 7:52 p.m.
Trust me, I did not write the post for you.
Sept. 21, 2017 | 5:50 p.m.
what about system where you can give out so many points per week, so members that post really awesome stuff and stuff that is well reasoned and well argued and others can give them a point - whoever has a lot of points are opinions that you should pay more attention to and it gives incentive for people to try harder to articulate their ideas.
Limiting the amount of points you can give someone else is obviously to prevent some troll making multiple accounts and assigning them to their own account or w/e
Sept. 21, 2017 | 8:29 a.m.
Could someone explain this to me.
If we set up our ranges so that villain is indifferent to calling or folding does this not mean that if we have value then villain can just fold because they are indifferent and if we have a bluff villain also folds because they are indifferent...so we never get paid off on our value hands but our bluffs automatically pick up the money in the pot? My head is very confused about this concept. Usually if I have a strong value hand I just bet. If I think the villain is capable of folding using their stats and the board runs out in a way that I think favors my line more than theirs then I bet/shove or w/e as a bluff.
This "indifference to calling or folding" is a bit interesting concept but I don't fully understand it.
Sept. 21, 2017 | 7:40 a.m.
"Is online hold 'em truly unprofitable now?"
Depends on if you are good. If you are not good it will not be profitable.
"The weakest part of my game is mental game"
Yes, it was mine too. It's normal. You have to find a coach that can help you with this. You can improve, you can fix it, you can get better.
Now the first step to getting over this hurdle is stop this stupid question about if it's profitable or not. It obviously is because there are obviously still pro players making a living from poker. But they aren't just some lucky idiot who ran hot for 300,000 hands, poker is in their blood, it is in their tears, it is in their soul. They live and breathe it every day. They study religiously. They have communities of friends that are also good players.
Once you realize the problem is you and not the "state of the game", only then will you put in the sacrifice it takes to make it to the top.
I am a 50NL noob, this is with a lot of tilt spew. But over the past 100k hands I have a healthy 5bb EV adjusted. $1700 profit at 50NL for less than what would be a normal 3 weeks of grind is IMO not a joke because my rake back is $900. That's over $2000 I made playing a relatively easy limit.
So you can see it's still beatable and I am sucking hard at 100NL, but that is beatable too and so is 200NL and so is 400NL and above.
The question is , do you want it hard enough?
Sept. 21, 2017 | 6:54 a.m.
You have a lot to learn, young grasshopper.
I would say that even with your leaks, which overall, are obviously bad - I think you still should be able to crush 2NL with those leaks because everyone else is going to be so bad.
Really all you need to do to beat 2NL is learn to value bet vs fish and stack them and to not spew vs regs.
2NL is softer than melted butter. If you aren't beating it, you are the problem.
And when I say you, I mean your attitude. You seem to come off as someone who believe they are the grim reaper and variance should be afraid of THEM, not the other way around.
It would actually be a good lesson for you to continue suffering at 2NL for another 100,000 hands and then you'll see why your sample size provided is (lol) tiny as F.
But I don't wish harm upon you, I'm sure deep down you are a good person, you just come off as emotionally aggressive and psychologically immature. And I say this because I used to be the same. Then 10 years later I grew up.
Listen more. Shut up more. Stop whining so much. You are not special, you are just another 2NL loser. Repeat these words in the mirror every day and you will get to 5NL.