If you are cbetting this flop selectively (which I think you should), you need to protect your checking range and a weak Ax is a good candidate to do so with. What are you really protecting against? Flush draws? A flush draw isn't folding. Any other Ax probably has you outkicked. Only reason to bet here is for value and I think you have better Ax for that.
I personally would have X/C flop and lead turn if villain checked behind. River is a clear value bet.
July 15, 2019 | 12:22 p.m.
Q pairing on the turn makes it less likely villain has a Q, and I doubt you are running into AA/KK here. You need about 30% equity to call villains bet on the river, and I think you get there. I would expect something like TT to play this exact way. Your hand was played weakly and villain could definitely be value betting worse hoping to get called by something like 88.
I would size up my turn bet as well fwiw.
July 6, 2019 | 8:15 p.m.
BB: $25.00 (Hero)
July 6, 2019 | 7 p.m.
SB: P2_686558EK: $16.82
BB: P3_650629MT: $9.99
UTG: P4_845426FQ: $27.50
MP: P5_471361WA: $26.58
CO: P6_379480SD: $56.38
July 4, 2019 | 2:33 a.m.
I have seen bluffs on this line, but I think you have better hands to call with here. ATs with no diamond can be comfortably tossed.
July 1, 2019 | 9:12 p.m.
I think you need to build a pot on the turn, so the raise is fine. This raise is fairly easy to balance with bluffs as well, so it's not like this is always value.
I think your sizing is fine on the river, can honestly even go bigger as Ax is going to call you here for even a PSB. When you get raised, it sucks, but I think you made the right play. River raises are so rarely bluffs at these stakes, and higher as well. They simply always have it here. I full expect that if you call you are going to be looking at AT/AK/QJ 95% of the time. Possibly TT as well.
May 10, 2019 | 9:08 p.m.
This is not a board I would range bet CO vs BU. Most CO 3B calling hands are going to smash this board, and so I would definitely want to be polar here. I would still bet this combo, but I would bet it larger to probably 2/3-3/4 pot.
April 29, 2019 | 9:13 p.m.
I am folding this hand pre. Cold calling with hands like this against a tight raiser at 5NL where rake is a massive consideration is going to be breakeven at best and likely -EV, even if villain is an obvious fish like this guy is. The raise being as large as it is makes this an even easier fold, there are tons of better spots that will come up against this guy.
The turn min raise is extremely nutted usually, but given your hand I don't think you can get away from it. I imagine you are running into AJ/AT of diamonds a lot here tho, but there may be some sets that make this play.
April 24, 2019 | 4:06 p.m.
Prefer a block bet on the river. Villain could easily play 97/96/95 this way (as well as better 9x). If villain had a boat, I think you get raised on the turn. 98 and 88 are the only realistic combos of boats if you think the board hits you both equally. That's 7 total combos. Villain isn't going to raise all of his flush combos here, just the stronger ones. You can easily toss your hand if you get raised with a block bet, and you may even get value from 8x or TT that didnt 3B
April 23, 2019 | 9:02 p.m.
Your strategy really shouldn't change much against people that are 100BB deep. If another player is also 200BB deep, that is where things change. If anything you should actually play looser vs these players. Hands that were standard folds start becoming raises if they have decent implied odds (i.e. 76s, small pocket pairs, etc.), as when these hands hit you stand to win a much larger pot. Additionally when you flop a hand, you are often incentivized to play it a little more passive unless you have the nuts. The worst thing that can happen 200BB deep is that you get it in with the second best hand.
I also think you are using selective memory about people playing tighter against you. Most players do not consider stack depth when decided to open a hand or not
April 9, 2019 | 9:14 p.m.
To add onto cg, this is a multiway pot so villains cbetting range may contract quite a bit, and so we need to be a bit more selective with our bluffs.
Also, I don't think you can rep much value by X/Ring flop and then betting 1/3 pot on turn. All my nutted hands are betting larger in that spot.
Feb. 27, 2019 | 10:58 p.m.
Piggybacking off of Hawks comment, this is a slam dunk call in this spot as opposed to a 3B. There is a massive fish in the BB and you want to play the pot against him as opposed to the reg. The fish is your profit source. Your 3B blows the fish out of the pot which is a bad result. Obviously they could have folded anyways, but they are more likely to fold to a 3b
This error is magnified since you are both deep which belrio covered very well
Feb. 13, 2019 | 4:14 a.m.
Great video Patrick, i am excited to update my preflop strategy and construct some ranges for the other positions.
Question for you. Is there a certain stake where the rake becomes negligible enough or where you feel we need a strong enough grasp of the game to where you would want to go back to mixed?
Feb. 11, 2019 | 11:36 p.m.
I keep waffling back and forth on this spot. There are so few value hands in villains range, but I can't think of many bluffs either on the Ad river when you hold the Kd. Without specific reads that villain overbluffs, I go back to pop reads, and versus the 10NL population I guess this is just a fold as this is probably all value all day.
Feb. 9, 2019 | 1:01 a.m.
Hate the 76s call from the SB unless the BB is a passive fish. Even then it is very very loose. Would much rather a 3B or fold line.
Flop raise is fine.
Bet slightly bigger on the turn with the goal of setting up a river jam. JTs should actually.not be a worry as it is only 4 combos. His big pairs, sets, and 2p make up a much larger part of his range. Sometimes they will have it, but not often and I think they would have jammed turn on you with that hand.
Feb. 4, 2019 | 10:41 p.m.
Also, I should mention that with a fish raising and a fish behind, this hand is a better flat pre. You want to play big pots with the fish, as opposed to blasting them out of the pot. This is even truer when you don't think your 3B has high fold equity. You should be linear with your 3B range I would think in this spot
Jan. 7, 2019 | 1:13 p.m.
I think you need to barrel this flop. You have a gutshot, 2 overs, and BD diamonds. A reg flatting this 3B in the BB would be heavily weighted towards 99/TT/JJ, but with a fish you can expect it to be much wider and contain a lot of stuff you can fold out like AJ/KJ/K9/77. Obviously he may have had 99 here, but I don't think he would have folded that. Your sample is just too small to say that he is tight when calling 3bets, he's a fish, most fish call too much.
BTN has a wide 3B calling range like you said, and there is a very large part of his range that you can fold out with a 1/3-1/2 pot bet. A very common thing at the microstakes is for people to fold to the preflop aggressor in 3B pots if they cbet the flop. Obviously you are never getting them to fold a T, but that's not really the goal. We want them to fold things like KQ, AJ, etc that is ahead or has good equity against us
Checking puts you in this awkward spot where you have to fold a ton of equity as you don't know what the BB will do.
Jan. 7, 2019 | 1:06 p.m.
No you do not need a HUD to be successful, but it is not going to hurt you to have it. Even if you don't want to use it for player stats, the ability to analyze your game from a statistical perspective and easily replay hands is invaluable.
Dec. 3, 2018 | 1:01 p.m.
I think you will get AK/KQ to call some % of the time (definitely not 100%) since FDs missed. More importantly, I don't think those hands are going to bet if you check as they have tons of SDV. The loss here would be if villain is going to jam any missed FDs/weak hands like QT that block the nuts that you could X/C, which is a realistic concern since villain is aggressive, but we probably don't have a strong enough read to know what they would do in this spot.
Sept. 26, 2018 | 12:50 p.m.
Jam the river 100%. There is no betsize besides jam that works, and you have to bet here. If villain was drawing for the flush and missed he will fold, but he could easily have some Kx and 2pair combos that are going to pay you off.