Not concerned about balance given that villain is a recreational. The goal is to stack a J here. Flop 3bet is fine, especially since we are OOP. I think you could even do it with 33 and 66 unblocking top pair. Since you say villain is not very aggro, we don't want to risk not building a pot and have villain check behind the turn with QJ or something that would have called our 3bet.
Turn is an interesting spot. We filtered villains range sufficiently on the flop to where the majority of it should be Jx, that being said a rec may get sticky with 99 or something. Given the size of the pot, I think we can actually size down to something like 35-40. A J will never fold to for this price, and may even try to GII. It still leaves an SPR of <1 for the river jam as well.
June 21, 2020 | 4:22 p.m.
I would not be 4betting this hand that deep being OOP. When stacks are deep like this we want to keep the pot small with our non-nutted hands, especially OOP.
Honestly it's super nitty but I would fold the flop given that we have next to no equity and we have so many more suitable hands to defend this with. River is a completely standard fold.
March 17, 2020 | 6:19 p.m.
My turn strategy would be to split my range with a 50-65% bet size and an overbet of 150% or so.
Fwiw this combo would not slide into the overbet range. I would prefer bluffs that have higher equity and nut potential, or block villains best bluff catchers
March 6, 2020 | 1:54 p.m.
Not a fan of completing these kinds of hands at the micros, tho admittedly I have not studied it much. A min raise from a 71/2 who has a 48 WTSD is probably the scariest thing I have ever seen and I would fold.
Feb. 25, 2020 | 1:41 p.m.
Flop: why do you think cbetting is good here? I am not saying it is bad to cbet here, but just saying 'I think X is the right play' will not help you. I will say if you are going to cbet here, I would not cbet this large in general as the 5NL population struggles to defend properly against small cbets.
Turn: this is a bad turn to barrel w/ this hand. Villain is likely a fish and will probably call w/ the same amount of 3x that we have preflop, but they got to filter their range on the flop. We are betting at a rather high frequency on this flop, so we get here with a lot of air. Villains check is procedural and should not be looked at as some sort of range capping move that gives us a license to bet weak SDV hands with poor equity like this one.
River: don't rule out calling here, but if I were to do so I probably wouldn't do it with 77. 55 I think is a call here because villain likely isn't doing this with a J, so blocking the straights is probably important
Feb. 25, 2020 | 1:32 p.m.
Preflop: open is fine
Flop: prefer check to betting by a wide margin. Villain is 70/10 and probably is going to play this face up. Let him bet if he has a hand. Range advantage doesn't mean anything with these types of players as they just play there hand and have no concept of ranges. They think things like 'i have a 9 so I call'.
Turn: leading is bad here. We have no hand and poor prospects to improve. Villain called which indicates he probably has something. When he min raises we absolutely must jettison this hand. A min raise from a 70/10 is basically screaming 'i have the nuts or close to it'. This play is motivated by greed, they aren't trying to get you to fold.
River: villain just min raised us indicating that he has a hand. He probably didn't do it with worse than a T.
Overall: the way we beat weak passive whales is value betting them to death. They are going to pay us off when we have a hand and we cannot count on fold equity against these players. Play your hand face up in these spots, they are not aware enough to exploit you.
Feb. 19, 2020 | 11:11 p.m.
ATs-AKs and 25% frequency of A2s-A5s would all be in my squeeze range here. Your sizing is larger than I would go. 4x is plenty IP.
On the flop I think we can bet at a rather high frequency here given we have all the AA, AK, and some combos of A4, A3. I would argue villain does not have that many AK combos here as he probably 4Bs a good chunk of them, though he may have some. I would assume villain would either 4B or fold all his low wheel aces, and so he never has A4/A3 here. Betting 25% pot w/ range is probably defensible here.
Turn call is fine.
River we need to call something like 44% of our range to make villain indifferent to bluffing. Given that you probably bet all of your AK and AQ combos earlier, you get here with very few good Ax to call with. I think folding a hand as strong as AJ here is probably overfolding our range and so we likely need to call.
Feb. 19, 2020 | 1:57 p.m.
Agree with Hawks on this being a mix preferring to bet the Ac and Kc. Disagree with the last part about betting this at a high frequency though. If villain is a reg they are likely flatting a very concentrated range that is heavy in suited broadway's and pocket pairs. While we do have way more Qx than villain, villains Qx combos make up a much more relevant portion of their range. Ours is heavily diluted by Ax and Kx combos and so this board does equalize quite a bit. Add that to hero being OOP and it makes me want to be much more selective.
Feb. 13, 2020 | 11:09 p.m.
H1: pretty standard tho AJs can be squeezed here some of the time. Flop is a X/F. We need to be tighter in multiway pots, so this hand is just a give up when we are drawing to 1 pair.
H2: BB is the one I am concerned about when deciding to call. If they are squeeze happy I probably just avoid it. If they are a nit or a passive fish I am happy to get involved. If they are a reg I am not happy to call but with an aggro fish and a passive fish it is probably still profitable. The presence of the aggro fish is going to discourage the reg from squeezing.
H3: I think you played it fine. If the fish is going to frequently bet the turn after calling flop, I am happy to let them hang themselves. If he ever has a 9 you are stacking him, they just happened to have nothing this time.
Feb. 6, 2020 | 2:22 p.m.
Pre: it's a decent hand to 3B at some frequency, so that is ok
Flop: your sizing is far too large and you let villain filter his range so well with it. He can basically fold out all of his range except for Kx, 6x (tho he probably has very few 6x), and flush draws. This is a flop that we can bet 1/3rd pot w/ our entire range. The GTO solution likely has some larger bets too, but this would not be a combo that falls into the larger bets category, and implementing multiple sizings on flops like this at 2NL adds complexity to our game we do not need. Additionally it being a 3B pot, we don't need to size up so much to get all the money in.
Turn: we actually pick up equity here so this hand actually makes a good candidate to barrel. I would much prefer bluffing the turn than the line you took.
River: No, just no. You filtered his range to Kx, flush draws, and 6x. The flush draws just made a nutted hand, and Kx and 6x are very unlikely to fold. This was a give up on the river.
Feb. 6, 2020 | 2:14 p.m.
I would say 3B or fold is preferable to 3B or call in this spot. 88 is about the absolute bottom of that too, and I would rarely 3B it (<25%). I would only call here with a known passive rec in the BB.
Fold vs the 4B would be my preferred option. You almost have enough behind to set mine profitably, but you are OOP against a range of something like QQ+, AK, and A2-A5s at best. Even the bluffs have good equity against you and honestly they may be even tighter than that.
Not sure what site you play on but 4B ranges in the pools I play in are extremely nutted which scares me off this hand.
Jan. 31, 2020 | 9:42 p.m.
Missed bet on the turn is what caused the river issue. You can still get value from weaker Ax and spade draws. This is 5NL, people don't like folding the turn and will call you lighter than you would think.
And yes you probably leveled yourself into folding. If you aren't calling this you aren't calling any other hand. We need to overfold our range at 5NL in these spots, but this is folding our entire range as you do not get here with straights, full houses, Tx, or AQ.
Jan. 31, 2020 | 9:33 p.m.
I'm recommending a range check, i.e. checking your entire range. It's easier to balance in this spot than having a small betting range
Jan. 15, 2020 | 12:31 p.m.
Need to know what position hero is.
If in the blinds I think a strong case can be made for range checking as you are probably not 3 betting a good number of combos that hit this flop. Villain should have 77-99 more frequently than hero here as we would not 3B them at 100% frequency but villain is likely to open and call them in this spot. Same with JTs if we are in the BB, I think we are probably not 3betting that hand 100%. Our range also has to protect a lot of AK that we get here with that villain doesn't have since they would probably 4B it at least some frequency. We need to check our big hands to protect our air. From there we would split our range between X/C, X/F, and X/R.
Jan. 14, 2020 | 11:40 p.m.
With a known weaker player in the SB entering the pot, we have good implied odds the times that we make a strong hand (say a flush or trips). When the potential to win a big pot increases since a weaker player has entered into the pot, we should be more liberal with our BB defends.
Jan. 3, 2020 | 11:54 p.m.
CO: $5.46 (Hero)
Nov. 23, 2019 | 11:45 p.m.
What do you think about this spot? What does your range look like here? Do villain/population tendencies provide any insight into what the highest EV play is here?
Putting up a bunch of hands for us to review isn't going to do you as much good as figuring out the hand yourself, posting your thoughts, and having us critique the hand and your thought process.
FWIW I think this is a pretty light call down at 10NL but villain doesn't look like a reg so it is probably profitable.
Nov. 19, 2019 | 10:27 p.m.
Pre: this hand can slot into a polar 3B range with some frequency (probably something like 50%), but calling is fine as well.
Flop: we are going to have plenty of raises and plenty of calls here, honestly I don't know what a solver would say here but I think I would probably call a fair amount being in position, hoping to either capitalize on future FE or extract value if I hit one of my draws. Definitely want to raise some frequency with this combo as well, but not sure of exact ratios. Leaning towards 75% call 25% raise, but that may not be optimal and I wouldn't be surprised if it is nearly a pure raise.
Turn: I think this is a pretty good spot to overbet. Villain just capped himself at overpairs, and so now we yield all the Tx. This is definitely a spot we should look at multi sizes. With your particular combo I would go 1.5x pot.
River: Villain is massively capped. We have all the Tx, and a lot of 9x. If we aren't firing with this combo we need to have a pop. or player read that shows that we have no FE here. I know 10NL and you have heaps of FE here. We block 98 and 96s which are hands that villain could theoretically get here with.
Nov. 18, 2019 | 10:10 p.m.
Preflop: your 3b sizing is too large. When villain is raising 3.5BB, I think 10BB is probably on the large end.
Flop: no reason to raise in a MW 3B pot, range call is fine here.
Turn: While I don't think villain is generally bluffing at 10NL here, I think they could do this with AQ or AJ. In general I am not interested in folding TPTK even though it was a MW pot when the SPR is about 1 and villain is probably weaker (his preflop raise size indicates he hit the 'pot' button as opposed to actually thinking about his raise size).
Yeah we lost here but I think you will see enough spew and weaker hands playing this way at 10NL to make this profitable.
Nov. 12, 2019 | 10:25 p.m.
4B jam. Don't overthink this spot, this isn't exclusively AA or KK. A normal size 4B leaves the SPR at 1, so might as well just GII here
Nov. 8, 2019 | 9:10 p.m.
Did UTG fold? Honestly I think villain is more likely to do this with AK than AA. For some reason people at these stakes will jam in these spots with AK and 4B like 3x with AA. I am less scared of this jam than I would be just a large 4B.
Calling if UTG folds.
Nov. 5, 2019 | 10:53 p.m.
Pre is fine
Flop I think cbet is fine, may size down slightly. Folding would be too nitty here, but I am not loving life as this is not a board with a lot of natural bluffs.
Turn is a terrible card because one of the few natural bluffs in villains range got there. We are probably still too high up in our range to fold tho.
I wouldn't be surprised if river is a call from a GTO perspective, but I am folding here. My experience is that villains at these stakes that are willing to raise a flop cbet in a multiway pot and then blast the turn and river just have it. This players stats are shaping up to be more calling station than they are aggro fish. I would expect you to be up against a set a very high percentage of the time