Sure it definitely makes sense to say we're looking at which hands to x/c vs x/r in terms of our Tx. That is good analysis and useful to think about for sure. I guess the question is what marginal defends (via raise or call) we should be making here then, since we need quite a lot?
And also if we are making some marginal defends we didn't put into the list, then we might not have this 30+% density of Tx that we claim to (or if we do, the leak might not be that he notices we have a lot of Tx, but just that he already made money).
I do like the work with PLOCalc overall though. Looks like a pretty good program and your analysis style is good (it's essentially range explorer from PIOSolver from what I can see, which I think is underutilized).
Dec. 6, 2018 | 5:03 a.m.
One thing I'm curious about on the TT5 hand at first glance (I haven't thought about this deeply so I could be missing something). It looks like the range you constructed for calling is about 42% of your combos. MDF vs his 1/3 pot sizing is like 75%. I worry a bit that we are overfolding here and just giving him an autoprofit cbet unless you are raising a ton with this strategy. Thoughts? Do we just not care about MDF here?
Dec. 6, 2018 | 4:02 a.m.
I'm starting to study PLO now and I'm curious if there's anywhere (or I guess anyone on here who wants to make a deal) that I can buy a bunch of pre-done Monker postflop sims. I don' need preflop solves, it's fine if they're using like poker juice ranges or w/e as the starting place.
Like, I have a huge collection of PIO postflop sims on my computer that I go back to all the time to help me study (and I like to run data analysis on them -- if you've ever seen my blog you can see some types of things I do over multiple files, but I haven't updated that in a long time. I'd like to do something similar with PLO solves). I'd like to have a similar collection for PLO (constructing such a thing will be laborious for me, given my current computer situation as well).
Dec. 6, 2018 | 12:25 a.m.
Tangentially related question that you might have opinions on. For most people, when starting their first game, they have to work their way up the limits and build their bankroll. Now, if we're learning a new game, we already have the roll to play whatever our current game is (say NL 500z). Where do you start at if you're going to play some PLO?
Oct. 23, 2018 | 3:20 p.m.
These videos are super sweet, in my opinion. I like the analysis of live hands mostly because it's slower more detailed thought about the hands (and plus some mild entertainment value).
One thing I'm curious about with Ike's turn bet is what happens if you only give him the small sizing. I could imagining some reasoning that goes something like:
This card only hits my range and basically never hits his range and he likely doesn't have a ton of x/r here either since this card just totally bricks -- pretty much all of his x/r here would have often x/r'd the flop. So it's easy to get away with a very frequent small bet size. I'm going to continue to cbet at a very high frequency for a low size and put him in a really hard spot to defend adequately and disincentivize me from betting with raises.
I actually think this is a pretty sound strategy, even though it might not appear to be what PIO would prefer. I wonder if a small cbet with high frequency loses much EV on this board compared to equilibrium vs PIO. And if it doesn't, it might be hugely profitable against real players who are going to struggle to find some aggressive plays that PIO does.
Oct. 17, 2018 | 5:18 a.m.
I definitely don't think you can fold Kings here. You beat hands he'll do this with for value. 44 and maybe flushes are probably villains most frequent hands here. I think you're beat so rarely too. Sure, he can show up with AQ and A4 too, but not that often. I think he mostly bets the flop (maybe AQ would check the flop since they just crush everything).
That said, your line is pretty much playing your hand exactly face up here. I think you should basically be cbetting range here -- you have a ridiculous equity and nut advantage on this kind of texture. I'd expect the split to be worse than 60-40 equity wise. You should be making life suck for your opponent on this board. Of course the 4h sucks pretty badly for you when you do that and get called because you'll be at a ridiculous disadvantage in flushes once you've cbet full range. But I think on most runouts you will have preferred the full range flop bet.
Oct. 9, 2018 | 5:29 a.m.
That's how often you win, given that you see the flop.
It's obviously influenced by a few things. For example, if you're tighter from the BB preflop than you should be, you'll have stronger holdings more often and won't fold as much vs cbets.
But generally, the most likely thing to make you have a higher WWSF is playing more aggressively, and taking bluff spots. Players with low WWSF are generally more likely to give up when they miss than players with high WWSF.
Oct. 4, 2018 | 3:32 p.m.
Make sure both sizes are balanced. You don't have to follow PIO exactly, but try to have the right ratio of bluff:value in both ranges.
Make sure to think through strategies without your two cards in mind a little bit too. I've noticed it's a lot easier to think: "I should have an overbet range too" on this board when you have a nutted hand. When you have a weaker hand you might think "I should probably bet 1/2 pot with my betting range here. I'm protected by the strong hands." But if you are betting the strong hands bigger, you're no longer protected.
So, just make sure to think about how you balance your ranges -- it's easy to have a good idea but be influenced by your cards when trying to split your range.
Sept. 27, 2018 | 2:48 a.m.
Yeah; good to know, thanks! I figure the pool is of course stranger than 500 regular tables (200ZONE and 200 regular tables are also quite different).
I won't join it right now, since it's probably 1/9th T. Forrester given what you just said, but I might try it out soon.
Sept. 27, 2018 | 1:16 a.m.
Cool video thanks!
Super off-topic, but the 500z made me think of it. Do you ever hop in the 500ZONE pool on Ignition? If so, what do you think of it? Worth playing or are you better off at the standard tables? It's a lot more hands/hr but you get to know less about your opponents.
Sept. 27, 2018 | 1:05 a.m.
camikaze007 To be fair, I'd assume the appearance of one of the main things you see on the screen is a relatively large priority. Obviously I don't know though. But fwiw, I agree the tiled cards look bad to me.
Sept. 3, 2018 | 8:44 p.m.
Bet sizes are a bit small on every street imo. You're strategy is probably pretty polarized 4 way here, so if you're betting it should be for a bigger size. OTT it's just a shove. Same for river as played, you need to shove with this SPR.
Aug. 26, 2018 | 5:25 p.m.
Is there one? If not, would anyone be interested? I'd love to chat with people a bit more.
To be honest, I'm a bit isolated in poker, I have the RIO videos, which are great, but not much of a group to chat with. I'm hoping we can put something together for other people who use RIO.
Aug. 26, 2018 | 4:42 a.m.
Yeah; I've been playing hearthstone a bit lately too. Very fun game. I suspect it draws people who like poker because there are many similar elements. Both luck and strategy involved quite a lot.
Aug. 21, 2018 | 3:48 a.m.
OOP is basically just going to check range.
This feels like a board where IP will have to check a fair amount of his range. The BB hits it a lot and BTN isn't pushing a huge equity advantage (like EP would).
In particular, I think IP should be checking a fair amount of strong hands on this texture. we'll mostly want to bet a big size with vulnerable value hands like 99, TT, JJ stuff and some pair+draw. Plus we want to bet some draws and I would guess some hands with really low equity. In total, I would imagine our betting percent is something around 50 here, with large size.
I actually think OOP should have a pretty sizeable leading frequency on this card. I suspect on any card less than 10 OOP should be leading a lot. It's probably not a range lead, but anything with a pair or a picked up backdoor draw (including gutters) should be betting at a pretty high frequency. In particular, OOP just has straights WAY more often than IP.
IP is relatively capped here, not having a straight very often. So I don't think there should be much of a raising range.
I expect a reasonable double-barrel frequency from OOP. All of his backdoor draws/ "bluffs" that picked up a pair of jacks are going to be betting for value at this point. OOP might split his range here, because he does have some nutted hands at this point (both hands that already had it on the turn, and hands that hit the jack like 9T).
Raise should be with anything that beats a jack for value against this small size, in my opinion. We should have some of that because we elected to have no check-raise range OTT.
Villain's calling range is going to be tougher, I think all jacks have to call. Any straights that elected to bet the small size for protection will be 3-bet shoving now, I think.
Aug. 19, 2018 | 9:17 p.m.
Here's the most interesting hand I played today. I'm going to post it with both players hole cards hidden. My question is, what are your ranges for making this play as both players?
As BB, how often do you call the river raise? What is the worst hand your calling with? Frequency?
AS BN, what hands (if any) do you actually make this raise with?
Early stages so no ICM issues also no antes in play, so ranges are pretty similar to cash game at this point. Just play chip EV.
BB: 273.99 BB
UTG: 46.08 BB
MP: 209.25 BB
CO: 100.4 BB
BTN: 88.35 BB
SB: 111.75 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.25 BB, fold, BB calls 1.25 BB
Flop : (5 BB, 2 players) 7s 3h 8c
BB checks, Hero checks
Turn : (5 BB, 2 players) 4h
BB bets 3.25 BB, Hero calls 3.25 BB
River : (11.5 BB, 2 players) Jd
BB bets 7.75 BB, Hero raises to 21.38 BB, BB calls 13.63 BB
I'll respond with my analysis of what I was actually doing, and what I think the BB was doing. You can also note that this is reg vs reg, but it doesn't really matter. You can also note that I am BTN if you have specific reads on me.
I'll also respond with PIO's take, but that's running now so I don't have it yet!