Yeah -- but every river will still be terrible for you. When it's SUPER profitable to bluff you're going to do it a lot. So you get to the river with a lot of trash when you're actually called (but most of the time you just get a fold so it's fine).
Sept. 17, 2020 | 5:26 p.m.
On the first hand, when you node lock like that, I think every river will be terrible for you after overbet->call on turn. You are basically betting every bluffing combo for overbet exploitatively and you're really imbalanced toward shit hands. :)
Sept. 11, 2020 | 4:32 p.m.
@phil looks like Alien Slayer ran into a bug here at 21:00 in Vision. I investigated it a little bit myself and it looks like the ranges are getting mixed up when you move to the turn in BvB play. I don't know if they get mixed up in other places or not -- but this could potentially cause pretty big problems if so (especially in spots where it's less noticeable than one person always has AA and the other person never does)...
OTF OOP has a bunch of AA and IP never has (0%):
but when you move to the turn IP has a bunch of AA and OOP never does:
so... it looks like the ranges are getting switched between players on the turn? not really sure but that's very weird.
Sept. 10, 2020 | 11:52 p.m.
I meant, pokerdope makes this statement:
"If my true winrate was 10bb/100, then there is a 95% chance I will be between 3.5bb and 16bb/100 over 100k hands"
You are making the statement:
"If I observe a winrate of 10bb/100 over 100k hands, then there is a 95% chance my true winrate is between 3.5bb and 16bb/100"
A priori, as someone (me) who doesn't know anything about statistics, it's not obvious those statements are equivalent. But I believe you if you say that they are.
Sept. 9, 2020 | 10:01 p.m.
Is this an iff? I guess Ben said yes below so I’m inclined to believe him but I never realized that. A priori, what it is actually saying is that “if you’re true winrate is 10 then over 100k hands you can be 95% sure you’ll be in this window”
If Ben says that the converse is also true I believe him, but it’s definitely not what the graph is saying directly.
Sept. 7, 2020 | 2:30 p.m.
Going to second some 6 max vision content, or maybe loading up some pokergo footage and analyzing along with visions.
Sept. 5, 2020 | 3:24 a.m.
I definitely would have mucked the K6dd without thinking about much other than diamonds are bad blockers. Definitely a good spot to really illustrate why it's useful to think through every hand.
Aug. 30, 2020 | 1:51 a.m.
Overall I thought the video was good, but I don't see any reason to continue the footage, like you said.
If you can, I'd vote for seeing how you analyze less standard games whenever possible. Like, it's much easier to analyze a hand that you can put in PPT or troutulator when you need to. But what do you do for like badeucy or badacey or various other games (like you might see in a live mix or on Kings Club's crazy mix or anti-nit mix or whatever)?
Aug. 28, 2020 | 6:19 p.m.
Loved this format when it was released. Wonder if we could see an encore with all the big money GG poker games going on lately?
Aug. 24, 2020 | 3:12 a.m.
Your question is inherently assuming you are IP. A lot of the time if you are OOP and don't decide to bluff air you end up folding (and hence don't show it down). I don't know how the calculus actually works out combining these factors though.
Aug. 23, 2020 | 6:55 p.m.
Yep, as-is the stat is "percent of the time you bet, given that you get to the river with air" (which is what I assume yours is to). It's hard to mangle it to be something that makes more sense... but this stat can still give us some reasonable information, especially when compared to others (hence why I asked what reasonable numbers might be).
The simplest way I can think of to make it slightly more reasonable would be to do NOT(player checks OR player calls OR player folds) but that would probably miss places where player bets and gets raised
Aug. 23, 2020 | 4:58 p.m.
- That 16 is the percent of time you bet air in the river given you had the opportunity. So it doesn’t take into account how often you have air, but of the times you do, how often do you bet it. So, this says if hero showed up with air 6 times on the river in big pots, he gave up 5 of them.
There are of course several potential explanations/excuses for the number being lower than Saulo views optimal. For example, it may be that hero feels that in big pots villains aren’t folding the river because they’re hands are too strong so why bother, or perhaps hero gets to the river with air a lot in big pots as defender and doesn’t like to donk (because he calls lots of bets with draws) etc etc
All of your guesses look reasonable for the stats. On h2n you can name things however you want in your pop ups so those are names Saulo wrote at some point, not h2n most likely.
Aug. 23, 2020 | 2:44 p.m.
H2N and pt4 calculate these very different. H2n is (bet or raise)/(all actions) and pt4 is (bet or raise)/(call or fold or bet or raise)
Namely it looks like pt4 doesn’t care about spots that to check check and naturally the stat will be a lot higher in pt4.
Also, of course mw pots will play a factor... if every pot is going multi-way to the flop, then you are bound to have a lower winning percent in them (also for comparison purposes, you probably don't want to do something like this unless you can find other people's stats with that factored in too).
Aug. 23, 2020 | 2:35 p.m.
Also, a little curious after just going through the stat parts -- what do you think are reasonable numbers for the bet air stats? I am trying to see if mine seem reasonable and there you didn't give us much to compare to.
I can share mine since I don't really care about people knowing how badly I play... I created what I think are the same stats as yours in h2n (just bet river with hand filter to river air, or added filter of pot size)and see 34, 38, 27 for the three respectively and have no idea if that's still low (higher than hero in video but no idea if it's in a reasonable range) and if that lower number on big pots shows a lot of risk aversion there to you?
EDIT: In case it helps you answer, because I know you looked at those after AFq, mine were (flop,turn,river) = (38,32,36).
Aug. 23, 2020 | 2:20 a.m.
Really cool format choice, Saulo. I think this will help a lot of people if they do this themselves after seeing the video. I am going through my own stats along with you as I watch -- love it!
Aug. 23, 2020 | 1:12 a.m.
Here's a fun little thing to see the power that being in position has. This is a not-that-great estimate of a call-vs-3bet range (not really super important to get that accurate for this point and it'll be diff ip vs oop anyway), facing a 100% cbet.
Can you tell which one is OOP and which is IP?
This point is relevant all over the place, in all games and the exact ranges here don't matter that much, the important thing is that the ranges are exactly the same but the positions are swapped.
Aug. 23, 2020 | 1:08 a.m.
I'm loving the new hand classes feature, great job! Very much how I like to think about hands so that's really cool. One thing I might recommend is letting us know how often one has each hand class -- they feel sort of equal, but some of those are much more dense than others.
That said, as-is, it's already a super cool add-on Vision. Glad you guys continue to add cool stuff.
Aug. 20, 2020 | 2:59 a.m.
I haven't been dedicated enough to anything recently to have a good answer to that questions! Probably NL200z is the best answer I can give, but before pandemic I was playing mostly live and now-a-days I've been screwing around with other games (just finished a 10k hand PLO50 challenge, and been playing a lot of mixed games).