I like the hole cards up reviews of tournaments, more like this is good online or live tournament reviews are good.
One note is that you say something like "he should..." on 3rd street or something pretty often when there are multiple people with cards who you could be talking about. It's usually pretty easy to figure out who you're talking about, but probably best to just use names instead of pronouns in spots like that.
July 23, 2021 | 1:48 a.m.
I'll take pm me
July 18, 2021 | 1:31 a.m.
This may or may not help you, but there's a classic quote that always stick in my mind here. It's from Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance.
The most common and dangerous value trap is “value rigidity,” in which a calcified understanding of the world prevents repairers from reevaluating problems as they work.
Basically, we always need to reevaluating our circumstances and making judgements. Just because we thought our hand was good before doesn't mean we should continue to.
The other potential issue here is a "sunk cost" type fallacy. Where you might think you've already put so much in you might as well continue.
I'd have a think about both of those things.
July 2, 2021 | 9:26 p.m.
Fired a few bullets in some tournaments on ACR today while one tabling PLO 5/10. It was a fun day overall. Lost before late reg was over (and didn't rebuy) in all but one of the tournaments so definitely haven't turned a profit there, but there's still hope! The one I survived was a 2 day event that continues next Monday. I'm going into day 2 with a healthy 120 big blinds, so no complains there. Won't be anywhere near the chip lead, but I'll have plenty of room to maneuver. Should be something fun to look forward to on the day off of work next week. I'm going to have to sharpen up my NL skills in the meantime to wade my way through this huge field.
PLO was good and is going well again. I definitely feel that PLO is my strongest poker variant by a wide margin at this point. I just feel good when playing it -- it also helps that it's the one game I can never tilt at. I'm just resigned to lose big pots and nothing gets to me, which is good. Even though I lost the biggest pot I've ever played recently, I was pretty calm and continued playing. I think that makes the first post of this thread pretty solid. Cheers mates. The stats for the biggest hand I have played (which I lost), for fun:
Columns are Hand | Pot | Profit
June 28, 2021 | 2:37 a.m.
Played another session of blitz poker on ACR today and again had quite a bit of fun. It's a very different fun than playing in a live game or a lively online game, but it's fun in an intense thinking about the best strategy sort of way. I haven't played these games in a while so it's a nice change of pace too. I'm very curious to see what my winrate looks like after I get an okay sample in.
In terms of life stuff, today we went out to a sweet coffee shop called Bing Haus in Convey neighborhood of San Diego and played OFC for a bit (for fun -- my partner and I just paly for points) and read for a bit. Been rereading some of my favorite old Murakami books, so that's always fun. Definitely a great author and you can get a lot out of more than one read.
They had an amazing Iced Mango Matcha drink that I'm tempted to go back and get again pretty soon. I'll have to get back out there, definitely a nice place, although in a bit of an eh neighborhood for walking around and such.
Hope everyone else is having a good weekend so far.
June 27, 2021 | 2:31 a.m.
Well my ambitions to get the challenge done "in the next week or two" have been totally thwarted as I'm at about 7k hands now. Game is an ante game that has been alternating between 5/10(2) and 10/20(3) depending on what people want to play. Definitely been pretty high variance, but a very fun game. Couldn't ask for better -- I'm much happier bluffing off a stack when my opponents are fun and I can joke about it. No chance of tilting in that game, which is good for me.
I was kind of bored midday today and took a little break from work to play some poker. Obviously my PLO game wasn't running so I decided to play 1/2 BLITZ poker on ACR. Actually, I had a ton of fun. It's fun to just play so many hands so quickly -- I haven't played the zoom format in quite a while. I'm actually going to try to play a few more sessions of that this weekend if it's running all the time. It feels like a good exercise for keeping me sharp. You really have to be thinking hard and concentrating all the time to play zoom. I have no idea how people 4 table it (I am playing 2 tables). I can barely pay attention to what's going on with two tables! That said, I do tend to try to exploit my opponents play often -- looking through my HH you probably think I'm a massive fish... and maybe I am... but I do promise I study some sims so I hopefully know at least a little bit of what I'm deviating from in theory -- anyway, that was a long winded way to say I like to really pay attention to what my opponents are doing and two tables just takes literally 100% of my energy. I had to take breaks every half our and do a little bit of exercise to keep my head on straight.
Life wise I haven't done anything too interesting since the last update. Had some nice wins at work, which is great -- boss called me out for some success which always feels good. No trips or anything, though I did eat some of the best pizza down here in San Diego (Tribute Pizza if you're in the area -- highly recommend -- in fact, if you're in the area and want it hit me up).
All in all, I'm actually going to try to play a bit more of this blitz poker game until I get bored of it. We'll see how many hands I can put in. It will be nice to see some good winrate data because of the big volume hands (even though I have been mostly studying PLO so I'm a little rusty). Hopefully next update I can provide with you some data on how I'm playing at the 200z tables. Even if I'm totally getting spanked, I'm happy to share. The ACR tables are pretty tough, and I'm mostly going to be using this 200z for practice to try to keep sharp in my poker thinking.
Anyway, I've been rambling on for a while. I'll sign off for now, hope you are all well.
June 26, 2021 | 2:42 a.m.
It's been a long week at work and I haven't had a ton of time for poker and probably won't over the weekend either -- we're going to visit my partner's family in palm springs -- which is going to be scorching hot.
Given the heat, maybe I will get a little chance to play poker, who knows. Her dad is very social and a fun guy, so I won't go out of my way to ignore them and play, but I might play for a few hours.
But, I did get about 1/4 of my 10k hand challenge done this week. Results are fine so far. Super swingy game with a lot variance. So far our peak was about +15k, our valley was about -11k, and our current is about 8k.
Been a pretty fun ride though, the group of guys I'm playing with are really fun and I'm having a good time. I'm hoping to get the rest of the challenge done in the next week or two.
June 12, 2021 | 2:52 a.m.
So, since I said I was going to get back to this actual blogging thing, it seems like it's about time to make a reasonable post.
We'll start with the life side. My partner and I are finally fully vaccinated and things are opening up around here in California so we're feeling pretty good about actually doing things again. It's good to get out in the world. We went out to beautiful northern Malubu for a little mini weekend hop this weekend and it was great. We did some surfing (we really suck, but it's a good sport for that -- it's really fun to suck!) and ate a tasting menu for an all vegan restaurant called Crossroads Kitchen (which I highly recommend, but maybe don't get the tasting menu).
Getting back out in the world a little was great and we intend to do that more and more now that we feel a bit safer doing so. I'll probably be taking a few more trips soon, and actually even getting back to the poker room.
On the poker side, I've decided to do a rerun of my 10k PLO hand challenge but with higher stakes. I'm doing the same challenge at 5-10 PLO. We'll see how it goes. Obviously, I can't expect to have the same insane win rate that I did at 50PLO, but I feel good right now and I think my game is somewhat sharp. I'll start sharing results as they progress. I haven't played enough now to warrant any graphs or anything, but I did run quite hot for my first weekend of the challenge, which is always nice.
Anyway, thank you to anyone who reads this. I hope you're doing well.
June 7, 2021 | 3 a.m.
At around 25 or whatever when you're comparing the AA hand vs the opponents range, I question the tightness of the range you give him. He's getting a good price with the big-ish antes in there on 3rd and 4th street. I wouldn't be surprised if opponent has a lot of hands like B:c (which he actually showed up with and is not in your final range but is a ton of combos), and adding those into his range makes the equities run a lot closer. Given that, I don't think this is a fold spot, but I do see the merit, especially in a tournament where you might want to avoid high variance. But for chips, I think it's a clear call and fold if 6th street is another club but otherwise close your eyes and call down.
June 5, 2021 | 2:59 a.m.
Love it demondoink, great blog so far. Totally agree that living that flexible lifestyle is important. Poker doesn't have to be your entire life, it can help fund other things you find really fun. Go running, have fun. Live your life, that's what it's all about. Poker is a part of that life, but not the end all be all.
June 5, 2021 | 2:48 a.m.
I participated in the trial as well. It's tough to shout out my thoughts because it really is just talking about one person, but I suppose I will. To preface this I will note that I have worked in online math education for 7 years. My honest opinion is that Kevin is a really good poker thinker. He definitely got me thinking in interesting ways and what he had to say was clever and just top notch. However, when I took the trial at least, Kevin's classroom skills were definitely not nearly as honed as his poker skills. I think there is room for improvement in the pedagogy, but the material itself was stellar and I definitely learned something new.
June 4, 2021 | 11:33 p.m.
Reviving this again because the title is something I need to come back to. I have mostly been taking a break from poker until very recently and definitely feel my innate tilt-prone instincts getting at me. I have to make sure to focus on making the best decisions I can, regardless outcomes. Just reading through my own blog reminded me to start explicitly narrating things to myself with my inner voice. If I am forced to call myself out for being stupid, for tilting, for being upset for whatever reason, and I bring it into my conscious mind, then I have more control over what's going on.
Now, I'll go ahead and post a little something poker related as well. Playing $44/88 limit 27 triple draw with an ante. I open the button and get 3 bet by the SB. First draw goes 2-2, then he pats the second and third draws. I end up drawing a 9 on the last draw and he checks to me. Suddenly I realize... I actually have no idea if I can value bet here. So, I decided to take a look at my equity vs his range and what his range distribution looks like.
Let's start with his range distribution. First of all d2 to pat looks like this:
Now, of course he will not check a lot of these on the river, but this gives you a solid idea of what a d2 to pat range looks like. It's about 40% 8s, 45% 9s, and 15% 7s. Good to know for what you're drawing against too.
Now I want to know my equity vs his range when he checks. Unfortunately, troutulator cannot do range vs range simulations so I had to rely on good old Python (thankfully this is now easily repeatable and I can do any range vs range simulation I want in 27td). If you assume he is checking (and obviously calling) his 9s and 87s, then the breakeven hand vs that range is 97 perfect.
So, now you know. The average hand if someone has their 87s and 9s after patting from d2 will be about 97 perfect. Of course, in reality there are other variables -- he might not have all 87s here and will probably bet some of them, maybe he traps some hands to check raise, and maybe he has some rough Tx here. But this should give us a lot better picture of the situation overall.
June 4, 2021 | 10:51 p.m.
Nov. 13, 2020 | 6:36 p.m.
@38 minutes, my figuring of the J6 combo divide is that J6cc blocks mostly hands that bet and then continue to raise (like J8, J9, JT, J7), while J6hh/dd/ss block hands that bet and then fold to raise (QJ, KJ).
Nov. 12, 2020 | 4:26 a.m.
Random comment because you mentioned it: I definitely prefer not having the webcam on. It just takes up a lot of screen real estate for no value.
Nov. 7, 2020 | 3:08 a.m.
Just started... but I feel like you are comparing apples to oranges when you say "A8o is worth 14 chips against the big bet strat and 16 vs the more merged strat" -- that is true when facing a bet, but you need to weight that with how often it faces a bet. I.e. A8o is probably (I haven't run this sim) worth more than 16 chips when the ip player decides to check.
So... the EV of A8o vs the big bet range should really be like
(% of time ip bets)x14 + (% of time ip checks)x(A8o's EV in the check-check line)
To quickly see why this is true, it's useful to think about a really-extreme example: make the bet size all-in only and pretend we actually use it, then A8o's EV vs the bet will be really terrible, but A8o's overall EV against this strategy will certainly be better than A8o's EV vs either strategy we have looked at so far.
Nov. 6, 2020 | 3:14 a.m.
For blocking hands that are indifferent, I suppose one way to think about it is:
If we are blocking hands that are indifferent, then we skew our opponent to have more (strong hands, air).
If our opponent is denser in (strong hands, air) i.e. more polarized, then it's pretty well-known that we want to bet into that range less overall with our entire range.
Now, we can then think of the cross-section of our range that contains a K (bear with me, I know that this is a 3d cross-section...), that sub-range is essentially against a more polarized range and hence prefers to check more with both its value and air (playing more of a "sub-range check" strategy).
Of course, the effect is only marginal because having a K doesn't actually polarize your opponent that much in practice.
Nov. 6, 2020 | 1:37 a.m.
Ha, yeah, I was going to point out that "we are bluffing quite a lot" err.. we are betting with the nuts quite a lot. :)
Anyway, one thing to keep in mind at that QJ9 type spot for people though: you really need to think about why not blocking an A is good. If villain is going to folding aces, then you want to weight him toward those. Of course, if villain is going to be calling aces and those are one of their stronger holdings, then your prefer to actually bluff with an A in your hand.