New to the site so unsure if this is the correct format in which to pose these questions, but giving it a go anyway. Please correct me if there are better ways to go about it.
Would like to hear advice about how you should think through these hands. Looking back at the hand I am really uncertain of my decisions on all 3 streets. Bunch of things to take into consideration and I really don't know if my reasoning was sound. I also don't want to be biased by the hand the guy ended up showing me, so trying to put that out of my head. Any help would be much appreciated
Played in a live satellite a couple of weeks ago. There were 2 seats to be won for the upcoming series. One $250 seat for second place and a $400 seat for 1st place. 3 Handed (bubble)
Hero - 280k
SB - 135k (older guy, regular and strong player, not necessarily a guy who has studied a lot but experienced. Old fox)
BB - 70k (Also older guy but pretty weak, straight forward kind of player)
I make it 14k from the button with 6s6c
SB calls, BB folds
SB checks, I bet 15k, SB calls
I realize that flop hits his range but at the same time I have found that players tend to over fold to c bets in these games, so I tend to really c bet a lot. Would like to hear opinions on this.
SB checks, I check
I considered betting the turn to represent the A as I think my range contains more A than his, but decided against it as the board is scary and thought that my 66 might still have some showdown value. Don't know if my reasoning was correct? Opinions?
SB bets 55k
The first thought that comes into my head here is that this is a bluff. I consider calling but keep on thinking that if I call and he shows some mid pair it is terrible (Q9, K8), something like that. The more I thought about the hand afterward I think that if he had a hand like that he would probably prefer to take a showdown. On the one hand I think his range is extremely polarized in that spot, but can't help fearing a pair if I call. I then briefly consider jamming. I think this would fold out and 7, 8, or 9. Puts bubble pressure on him too, but I end up deciding against it as just too much risk.
Eventually I end up laying the hand down, but to be honest, mostly because I thought I was sitting pretty and could easily get into the money. Would love to say I did some ICM calculations but that would be a lie.
I realize that in this spot I only have to be right about 30% of the time to call. How would you go about calculating or approximating this on the fly.
Thanks in advance, any help appreciated