Month is turning around. Hope I didn't just jinx it. May move back up to 100NL if I can keep things going back in this direction ...
... and yearly so far
Oct. 9, 2022 | 8:23 p.m.
Thanks for the responses everyone, mostly I am on a bad run so far this month and made some questionable calls on the River and just kinda feeling exploited on this line ... so I was looking in to it. After looking at it I really think what I'm doing is ok, given that the pool I'm in is full of nonfolders, but there are definitely some spots mixed in to this line where I should have folded.
Oct. 7, 2022 | 6:01 p.m.
So with the following filter in HM3 ... (InPositionOnFlop=true AND DidPFR=true AND FlopContinuationBetMade=true AND DidThreeBet=false and FacingPreflopThreeBet=false AND FacingPreflopFourBet=false and TurnContinuationBetMade=false AND TurnContinuationBetPossible=true) I'm showing -113 bb/100.
I am not sure that I have a problem of calling light anymore (except maybe in some specific hands I played) ... not really sure it's worth making any changes except looking in some spots where I tried to bluff catch big bets and was wrong ... unless it will increase my overall winrate. (i.e. there is no point in shifting 150bb/100 winrate from 1 line to another if the net result is the same)
Oct. 7, 2022 | 5:57 p.m.
I do believe my turn c-bet range is stronger than optimal - however the pool is full of calling stations / people who just won't fold (3-4 rec players at every table is normal), so I'm not sure it's good to change what I'm doing just for the sake of shifting part of my winrate from one street to another unless I am gaining additional winrate by doing so.
Oct. 7, 2022 | 5:52 p.m.
649bb/100 ... that is across several limits on a soft site (segregated pool in US) and includes 3bet+ pots ... 512bb/100 in single raised
I think I see where you're going with this ... LOL.
Let's see if I'm right... I think that what I'm doing on River is likely good overall (doesn't mean every call was good...), because if I'm that +EV on turn barrels, and on River my win rate is better than folding, then my Turn Check back/River calls overall have to be +EV
Oct. 5, 2022 | 4:50 p.m.
My concern is that I might be calling too lightly, but I guess as long as I show a better win rate than folding, the river calls (overall) must be profitable ... but that doesn't necessarily mean the flop cbet was good.
Oct. 4, 2022 | 9:22 p.m.
Think I might be calling rivers too much and was wondering how my bb/100 compares to others in this spot. I am losing 133 bb/100, not really sure if I should show a profit on this line?
The spot is heads up, single raised pots as the preflop raiser when you bet flop, check turn, call river in position.
Oct. 4, 2022 | 4:57 a.m.
I am interested in playing on some of the ROW sites in Canada (not Ontario with the ringfencing situation) - but can't get a straight answer from from PokerStars as to what is required. All they give is a boilerplate response saying "you need to create a Canadian / EU account", but they won't say what all that entails as an American.
Have read things around the internet but lots of it is old (some of it 10-11 years old) that says they will require me to have a Canadian SIN and establish residency (i.e. utility bill, bank statement, etc.) - but could have sworn I heard people were able to work things out without that.
Does anyone have any experience with this, and I am also wondering what other sites are available and what issues I may encounter setting up there?
June 4, 2022 | 11:43 p.m.
I am using GTO+ and have noticed from time to time that it recommends making some slightly -EV calls ... for example the node below, which I solved down to .005%. 2 of the AQo combos it recommends calling are -EV, as well as a few combos of 98s, AJo, AJs, ATs.
Feb. 3, 2022 | 8:09 p.m.
A bit of background ... I am a cash game player getting back in to poker, and want to start playing some MTTs as well. Right now I am profitable at 25NL on ACR and in the past have played up to 100NL profitably a few years ago.
I have played some low/micro stake MTTs in the past with some mixed results, probably about breakeven or slightly losing. Bought the From the Ground Up MTT course and I am about half way through the preflop part of the course.
My preflop ranges were bad before watching this course (much too tight) - but most of the other stuff I was already aware of (positional awareness, opponent tendencies, stack sizes, how to play with different types of opponents left to act).
At a cash game it's pretty easy for me to spot a fish, pretty much anyone limping is a fish and their VPIP/PFR stats are obvious. With MTTs being kind of foreign to me, I feel a bit lost identifying the fish. Obviously if someone open shoves a big stack in a spot that doesn't make sense, or does something crazy postflop, I'm marking them, but with open limping (outside of the SB and some short stack plays) I am not sure if it's a valid strat in MTTs or if I should be marking them right away as in cash.
Jan. 1, 2022 | 10:35 p.m.
Here are the numbers I am finding with all in EV adjustments ...
OOP Overall (EP through CO): -20bb/100
OOP Called (EP through CO): -10bb/100
OOP Overall (SB vs BB 3B): -185bb/100
OOP Called (SB vs BB 3B): -390bb/100
IP Overall (EP through BTN): -150bb/100
IP Called (EP through BTN): -210bb/100
This is actually a lot worse than I'd thought, because I wasn't filtering this spot correctly in HM3. Before noticing the filter wasn't correct, I thought I was doing okay defending. Somehow I play better OOP than IP, except for the blind vs blind spot. Weird.
Actually, found out I am getting wrecked to the tune of -500 bb/100 in the BTN v CO spot but doing okay or even really good calling in other spots (CO v MP +475bb/100).
You'd think that you would just set the 'relative position' to OOP or IP and then click the 'faced 3bet' filter - however the relative position filter only includes when there is a flop. Found a workaround to look at it properly (which is how I got the numbers above).
Definitely going to be doing some leak fixing. Mostly I am surprised that any of my calls are showing a profit because the post flop sims show only a small defense range as being +EV (i.e. a higher EV than the amount you would have to call).
Dec. 26, 2021 | 12:10 a.m.
Turns out my number was high. I do mean collectively btw - not from a single player. I do think there are tables where it gets that high though, with 2 aggressive regs in the blinds (or 3 behind when I am in the CO).
My sample is pretty high (2k hands UTG, 4K to 6.5K for the other positions). Here is the % of time I am facing a 3bet opening from each position when the pot was unopened.
SB - 11.5%
BTN - 22.5%
CO - 21.5%
MP - 23.5%
UTG - 24.5%
Dec. 25, 2021 | 5:56 p.m.
ACR 25NL - about 1/3 of the time I face a 3bet regardless of my position. Mostly in the 3.5x-5x size range, with a few smaller ones.
Based on what I have seen from running sims in GTO+, it's not profitable to call these even when the villain's 3bet range is up to 15-20% (except with a range of roughly AQ, AJs, KQs, KJs, JJ-66). Even combined with a 4bet range including some bluffs, I can't see any way you could meet MDF with any recommended pre flop range that I have seen. I am guessing due to the high rake environment of 25NL and the large 3bet sizing. This is after factoring in 27% rake back btw...
Are we just relying on opponents to make big blunders to make our calls +EV - or are all the people I see calling wider in videos (suited broadways, suited aces, suited connectors) doing so because they're playing higher stakes where the rake has less impact? Or maybe I just need to be playing way tighter or just don't worry about meeting MDF? I am winning but barely ... like 1-2 bb/100 before rake back.
Dec. 25, 2021 | 10:32 a.m.
Just under 45,000 hands at 10NL Blitz and another 5K at regular 25NL. Only made about $113 in rake back and broke even on everything else, wasn't a great week. Rake back was between 2 - 2.5bb/100 - too lazy to figure it exactly since I had some hands at 25NL. That was actually from the 6th to 12th ...
This last week I played better, but ran $100 under EV, so broke even on the game and got around $40 in rake back and $50 from The Beast.
Going to try and get hardcore again this week, I think I'll start playing 25NL instead of 10NL Blitz once I get my roll up to $1000
The games seem a lot tougher than they used to be, used to play 50NL and had a decent winrate, and was slightly winning at 100NL ... that was back in like 2015 ish.