A bit of background ... I am a cash game player getting back in to poker, and want to start playing some MTTs as well. Right now I am profitable at 25NL on ACR and in the past have played up to 100NL profitably a few years ago.
I have played some low/micro stake MTTs in the past with some mixed results, probably about breakeven or slightly losing. Bought the From the Ground Up MTT course and I am about half way through the preflop part of the course.
My preflop ranges were bad before watching this course (much too tight) - but most of the other stuff I was already aware of (positional awareness, opponent tendencies, stack sizes, how to play with different types of opponents left to act).
At a cash game it's pretty easy for me to spot a fish, pretty much anyone limping is a fish and their VPIP/PFR stats are obvious. With MTTs being kind of foreign to me, I feel a bit lost identifying the fish. Obviously if someone open shoves a big stack in a spot that doesn't make sense, or does something crazy postflop, I'm marking them, but with open limping (outside of the SB and some short stack plays) I am not sure if it's a valid strat in MTTs or if I should be marking them right away as in cash.
Jan. 1, 2022 | 10:35 p.m.
Here are the numbers I am finding with all in EV adjustments ...
OOP Overall (EP through CO): -20bb/100
OOP Called (EP through CO): -10bb/100
OOP Overall (SB vs BB 3B): -185bb/100
OOP Called (SB vs BB 3B): -390bb/100
IP Overall (EP through BTN): -150bb/100
IP Called (EP through BTN): -210bb/100
This is actually a lot worse than I'd thought, because I wasn't filtering this spot correctly in HM3. Before noticing the filter wasn't correct, I thought I was doing okay defending. Somehow I play better OOP than IP, except for the blind vs blind spot. Weird.
Actually, found out I am getting wrecked to the tune of -500 bb/100 in the BTN v CO spot but doing okay or even really good calling in other spots (CO v MP +475bb/100).
You'd think that you would just set the 'relative position' to OOP or IP and then click the 'faced 3bet' filter - however the relative position filter only includes when there is a flop. Found a workaround to look at it properly (which is how I got the numbers above).
Definitely going to be doing some leak fixing. Mostly I am surprised that any of my calls are showing a profit because the post flop sims show only a small defense range as being +EV (i.e. a higher EV than the amount you would have to call).
Dec. 26, 2021 | 12:10 a.m.
Turns out my number was high. I do mean collectively btw - not from a single player. I do think there are tables where it gets that high though, with 2 aggressive regs in the blinds (or 3 behind when I am in the CO).
My sample is pretty high (2k hands UTG, 4K to 6.5K for the other positions). Here is the % of time I am facing a 3bet opening from each position when the pot was unopened.
SB - 11.5%
BTN - 22.5%
CO - 21.5%
MP - 23.5%
UTG - 24.5%
Dec. 25, 2021 | 5:56 p.m.
ACR 25NL - about 1/3 of the time I face a 3bet regardless of my position. Mostly in the 3.5x-5x size range, with a few smaller ones.
Based on what I have seen from running sims in GTO+, it's not profitable to call these even when the villain's 3bet range is up to 15-20% (except with a range of roughly AQ, AJs, KQs, KJs, JJ-66). Even combined with a 4bet range including some bluffs, I can't see any way you could meet MDF with any recommended pre flop range that I have seen. I am guessing due to the high rake environment of 25NL and the large 3bet sizing. This is after factoring in 27% rake back btw...
Are we just relying on opponents to make big blunders to make our calls +EV - or are all the people I see calling wider in videos (suited broadways, suited aces, suited connectors) doing so because they're playing higher stakes where the rake has less impact? Or maybe I just need to be playing way tighter or just don't worry about meeting MDF? I am winning but barely ... like 1-2 bb/100 before rake back.
Dec. 25, 2021 | 10:32 a.m.
Just under 45,000 hands at 10NL Blitz and another 5K at regular 25NL. Only made about $113 in rake back and broke even on everything else, wasn't a great week. Rake back was between 2 - 2.5bb/100 - too lazy to figure it exactly since I had some hands at 25NL. That was actually from the 6th to 12th ...
This last week I played better, but ran $100 under EV, so broke even on the game and got around $40 in rake back and $50 from The Beast.
Going to try and get hardcore again this week, I think I'll start playing 25NL instead of 10NL Blitz once I get my roll up to $1000
The games seem a lot tougher than they used to be, used to play 50NL and had a decent winrate, and was slightly winning at 100NL ... that was back in like 2015 ish.