ziolo

Hi everybody,

It's time to write the first post :)

I assumed your range on the river looks like (if always checking turn with all of these hands):

Villain's range:

Decision tree:

Like Sauce said: every 9x is better x/shove bluff than AQ. If you are bluffing with all AQ combos then villain has ez call with every str8+. In my analysis I assumed that it will be reasonable to give up AsQx, because of the chance villain checking sometimes nfd ott and also he is not entirely capped to str8.

You were right that villain doesn't have +EV vbet with Kx (f we remove KQ from our range it gets even worse):

This analysis don't take into account x/calling hands like AQ,KQ otf therefore ranges may not be accurate, but it does not change anyting when considering only x/shove play.

Feel free to tell me about errors in my thought process :)

Why are you betting turn? If you bet turn with every Ax, then your x range is very capped. I would play whole range ott by checking.

Also don't think there's a lot of value in betting turn&river with most of Ax.