200NL - Bluffing my opponent off a chop
Posted by Dan A
Posted by Dan A posted in Mid Stakes
200NL - Bluffing my opponent off a chop
200NL Anonymous tables
155 BB effective
Hero is BTN with Ac Qs
CO opens 3BB
Hero 3bets to 9BB
BB calls
CO calls
Flop (27 BB) 6d 3s 2s
BB checks
CO checks
Hero bets 9 BB
BB calls
CO folds
Turn (45 BB) 6d 3s 2s [4s]
BB checks
Hero bets 32 BB
BB calls
River (109 BB) 6d 3s 2s 4s [5h]
BB checks
Hero shoves 105BB
I shoved here to get the BB player off the chop. I thought the Qs was a good blocker to a lot of his flushes like AQ, KQ, QJ, all of which he could cold call the 3bet with preflop. I also thought that I could discount some of villain's flushes since they should probably donk-jam this river with a flush. Is this play too aggressive or does it make sense?
EV (check back) = 109/2 * p (villain doesn't have flush)
EV (shove) = 109 * p (villain doesn't have flush) * p (villain folds without flush) + 109/2 * p (villain doesn't have flush) * p(villain calls without flush) - 105 * p (villain has flush)
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