Gross River 50 NL

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Gross River 50 NL

BB: $51.75
HJ: $55.69
CO: $51.25 (Hero)
BN: $40.69
SB: $49.50
Preflop ($0.75) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt Q Q
HJ raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, BN calls $1.50, SB folds, BB folds
Flop ($5.25) 8 2 5 (3 Players)
HJ bets $3.25, Hero calls $3.25, BN folds
Turn ($11.75) 8 2 5 9 (2 Players)
HJ checks, Hero bets $6.50, HJ calls $6.50
River ($24.75) 8 2 5 9 Q (2 Players)
HJ checks, Hero bets $12.50, HJ raises to $44.44, and is all in, Hero folds
Final Pot
HJ wins $47.51

I only had 9 hands on villain but can't see most players would play a value hand I beat, like 2 pair or a set, like this. And even if he did on earlier streets, I don't think he's ever shoving this river over my bet as I can still have some flushes (?) in my range. 

Don't know if I like my river sizing either, I thought he'd play TT, JJ and maybe 77 this way. Maybe AK w the A or K of spades. VS that range I should probably bet a bit smaller on the river, around 1/3? That aside, I can see 9s10s, As9s, maybe TdJd as well play this way on the turn. I'm still expecting him to barrel a lot of his A high fds on the turn but if he c/c those obv he has a lot more flushes by the river. 

Point is I don't think I'm beating any of his value range on this river (tell me if I'm wrong), and I called flop bet w one player left to act behind me, I bet turn and river when "everything" got there (TJ, 67, spades) so I shouldn't have much air in villains eyes I think. I do bet rivers quite wide but this villain doesn't know this so unlikely he's attacking. 

Guess this is still a call though if he has some bluffs. Dunno what bluffs that would be but maybe TT, JJ w a spade blocker that he decides is not good anymore? 

One of the reasons I bet rivers wide is how rarely I face c/r, esp on boards like this, so I probably don't think as much as I should on how to react when someone does. Intuitively I fold a lot, it just feels like I'm beat mostly, also I play more live where betting aggressively and hero folding is generally a winning strategy. But here I got top set so dunno if I should just close my eyes and call? Also I'd like to hear what sizing you would go with on the river bet and why? 

Looking forward to your comments :) 

/D








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