HU 2bb pot, facing an AI from a fish with two pair
Posted by MatoStar
Posted by MatoStar posted in Low Stakes
HU 2bb pot, facing an AI from a fish with two pair
SB: $4.33
BB: $5.47 (Hero)
Knowing that this player is a fish, have not seen him doing this kind of stuff, but from how he has been playing I would say that he could be doing this with TPTK or an overpair. Was not giving him much credit at the table.
Unfortunately, tables are anonymous and therefore hud is not allowed:/
What is actually really interesting question is: would he do this with like a 99 or 96 blocking our calling range you know? I can imagine having him 33,66,63 trying to get called by 9x or even doing this with an overpair for the same reason - get called by 9x.
He was also pretty active, so he is not the type of fish playing 30/2 or sth like that.
Not sure really and I know that its really player dependent decision.. maybe I would approach it by dividing him into 3 categories. First that he is doing this only with twopair+ and sets. Then we have 15% equity.
In the second scenario, he is the guy who is doing this with overpairs (if completed preflop) and even with hands like K9s+. Also he has some straight draws because he loves to bluff with them and then show us his hand. Vs that range we have 65% (at best).
3.case is just the mix of both, he is able to shove a bluff and even an overpair, but really not that often. Vs that range without 99,96s and 93o with KK,AA,54s, and all other twopairs, we do have 51%.
So to summarize that estimation: When combining all 3 guesses together and averaging them, we do not have right odds to call. Even if the 3rd case would precise, we need to take the rake into a consideration and therefore 51% equity is more likely to be a break even call. To add, I would say that even the 3rd scenario is a bit too optimistic. Therefore by calling this flop I am just attracting the variance as well as tilt issues.
Need to literally see one hand played like this with a 9x in order to justify calling here.
Thoughts?:)
What would be the bottom of your calling range?
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