NL20 villain, 3bet spot with villain shoving river. Can we find a call?
Posted by elchipriota
Posted by elchipriota posted in Low Stakes
NL20 villain, 3bet spot with villain shoving river. Can we find a call?
CO: $42.07
BN: $20.00 (Hero)
SB: $23.75
BB: $21.37
Rake is $1.09
Hi Fam! Hand was against a relatively unknown villain. Would love some thoughts on my break down and my math :)
My thoughts:
3bet range of villain. Im assigning him a 22% range as follows - pairs, A2s+,A9o+KTo+,QJo,k9sQ9s,J9s+, 67s+, A2o,A3
Hands he goes bet bet shove:
Value; AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, A4s, AT. 50% of his KT Combos? 40 combos (im expecting some value combos will check back the river).
Bluff: 30% of his A2s to AJ. I expect him to check AK behind for value. (11 combos)
Hands he checks the river with: AK combos, AQ combos (I expect a lot of them to be checked before the river at some point), Tx combos such at KT, QT, JT, some Jacks, AT combos and some small pairs.
I need around 35% equity to break even on the river call but getting around 4.6 to based on his bluff range above.
Equity to call - 43% 2.32 to 1
Bluffing frequency - 21.5% or 3.6 to 1
EV= (0.215x33.35)+(0.785x-14.35)= -3.88
What are your thoughts on villains 3bet range?
Im I being too generous on the villains bluffing range?
Thank you all!
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