i have a very solid sample in stars regular tables (something like 700k hands) telling me that i was pretty much a crusher in 50nl/100nl, winning at ~7bb/100 in 50 and ~5bb/100 in 100. i slightly changed my style during this time, going anywhere from 23/18/6 to 27/21/8, but regardless, i always won easily, with very little variance (i had a 40bi downer at 100nl leading to a 130k hand be stretch once, but that was pretty much it).

but in the last few months, it all went downhill. without notice, i suddenly became a small winner/breakeven meh reg, and although i can see that i ran somewhat tighter lately, i can't really put my finger on the reason why. i don't feel like i changed my approach to the game, but stats have changed and winrate (specifically red line) suffered immensely.

i was always a red line loser, but my lossrate overall has always roamed around the 5-6bb/100 mark. though, in my last 150k hands (50k if i include zoom), this loss rate literally doubled, while the blue line gains remained roughly equal.

check the hands i played this year. that's all i have in my current database. i filtered zoom hands out, since the player pool is so different and i'm not yet a proven winner there. it looks like some witchery happened around the 100k hand mark and then booooom, red line nightmare.



i have no idea why i'm playing so poorly and i don't know where to start fixing my leaks. at first i thought it was variance, but it clearly isn't, since the redline is dropping fast and steady (like never before in my career) during a significant sample. i can't believe variance can be blamed for that (can it?)


please please please help me to identify what i was doing fine before and i stopped doing or what awful thing i started doing that i'm not doing anymore or whatever. anything. i need a guideline.


i'll post my positional stats. starting with the first 115k hands of this sample, when things were working: