Pushing w AQo preflop after a sqz vs UTG? (NL 50)

Posted 9 years, 10 months ago

HJ: 75.24
CO: 130.17 (Hero)
BN: 50
SB: 29.90
BB: 50
UTG: 55.60

All players are unknown

Preflop (0.75) (6 Players)

Hero was dealt Q A
HJ raises to 1.50, HJ calls 1.50, Hero raises to 6, BN raises to 14, SB folds, BB folds, HJ folds, HJ folds

IMPORTANT

One hand before this one I Cc AKo BU vs MP and 4bet the Sqz from the SB (who is the BU now) who pushed w TT (120bb deep) and lost vs me.

Now I am sqz w AQ which is fine I guess and I am facing a 4bet from the same guy who I stacked one hand ago.

I think a call is not a good option w AQo and therefore it is a push or fold for me.

The math:

Money we win if Villain folds: 23.75

Money we can loose if Villain calls: 44

Money we can win if Villain calls: 59.75

I do not see him 4betting w QQ and AK here and would just give him a KK+ valuerange, given that he needs to bluff 9 combos to make a push +EV

X*23.75 + 9*( 0.2123*59.75 - 0.7877*44) = 0

X = 8,33

Vs unknown I would have a fold but I think Villain can 4betting light as a bluff w hands like AJ/AT/KQ/KJ etc. and 9 combos is not a lot...

What do you think given the hand before? Do I overestimate his aggression in this spot?