10PLO: River X/R Bluff

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10PLO: River X/R Bluff

SB: $16.80 (Hero)
BB: $12.71
HJ: $12.53
CO: $12.36
BN: $5.13
Hero: Table captain; TAG that bluffs in good spots, but mainly value betting thin; 26/21, AF 3.6
Villain: TAG, losing player over 2.8k hands; AF 3.8,; Mainly value betting a lot; plays weak made hands too strong
Flop ($0.40) 5 2 8 (4 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $0.40, CO folds, BN folds, Hero calls $0.40
Preflop: CO, BTN, Hero (T99s6s) and Villain all limp; Probably a fold, but these guys were bad and I could value bet any set here easily and get paid off. I also have some connectivity.

Flop: BB is playing pretty tight, but he has 100% of hands here since he checked his option. He can definitely have all the sets, top two, etc. I don't think he'd donk naked NFD here, but he could have As:ss+pair. However, I think with it being 4-way, he is weighted way more toward made hands. After everybody folds I call because of my read that he is weighted toward made hands and much less FD's. I also have my gutter which has very good implied odds versus this guy.
Turn ($1.20) J (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90
Nothing else to do but X/C here. A X/R just gets action when we're behind and X/F is too weak given that I have my raw ~30% versus 8876cc type hands and good implied odds when I hit my straight.
River ($3.00) 6 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $2.20, Hero raises to $4.95, BB calls $2.75
Here is where it gets interesting. Villain and I do not have any history that I can think of, so he is most definitely value betting his sets OTR for his vacuum play against this player pool. Knowing that he can easily have sets and some NFD+pair that he has to bluff with OTR, I go for a small value type X/R OTR as a bluff to make him fold a set/two pair. It's also VERY rare that he has a straight here. I picked this sizing because in his eyes (IMO) this isn't ever a bluff without any history.
Final Pot
Hero has 9 T 6 9 BB has 3 6 4 K BB wins $12.04
He ends having a very strange hand for his actions. I took a note immediately that he semi-bluffs aggressively with these weak of draws. Let me know what you think, especially about the river X/R. Thanks!

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