m3taphysics

Hi Guys

Its probably been about 5 years since my last post! But I've been playing poker again more and more often and this hand has had me thinking for a few days, so I'd like some input!

UTG limp £1, MP limp £1, co raise £10, btn call £10, I’m on Sb with AhKc

I make it £33 to go with 250 bb effective stacks

CO call, BTN call

Both regs, both OK players, probably just make general live mistakes but certainly not bad. I’d seen CO bluff earlier so not incapable of it and BTN had been tight all night, not seen much action from him (headphones on, watching stuff on youtube..)

Flop comes
AdQh7h

I cbet £45 into the £100~ pot for equity protection and value. Both players call.

Turn is Tc (Pot: £235)

On the turn I decide to check. This is questionable but my reasons are as follows. At this point I feel I only get value from AJ, everything else I have in their range beats me, apart from flush draws. Its unlikely both have flush draws. I decide the most optimal line here is checking, but it feels weak like I am giving up. Position really makes this hand difficult.

CO bets £125, BTN calls £125, hero?

Hey guys,

Its been a while since I've played took a long break from poker. Recently re-subbed and considering jumping back into the games.

• What did I miss?
• Are the games still good?
• PokerStars still one of the best?
• I've heard HUD's are now restricted. I was thinking of getting JIVARO.

I wont be playing full time, but it would be nice to play again for the fun and hopefully make some money in the process. But after going on twoplustwo it seems there is so little brag posts now, lots of players have fallen away into the variance trap.

Who knows maybe im wrong, hows everybody getting on in the poker world? :)

Hello

I wasn't too sure about this hand, it was pretty awkward. Early in the scoop event I was a little lost OTT.

On the turn he min-re-raises giving me insane value, alarm bells ring but I just cant put him on a hand. QJ makes sense. 44, possibly jacks?

The river hits and I basically lose to random flush draws (im not sure he min-re-raises these on the turn). QQ (I think he 4bets preflop), JJ raises flop. 44 raises flop....?

https://www.weaktight.com/h/5558be4aa525110867909dc8

Thanks

20-30 hands in. I never know how to play AQ. In the said hand, villain raises to 3bb, I 3bet to 7bb and I was 4bet to 16.5bb.

In terms of dynamics, I had 3bet quite high, maybe 3-4 times over the 30 hands. Mainly A8s+, we hadn't got to showdown yet though.

At this point its shove or call. I dont really know what to do. Its like the top of my range?

Cheers
Ash.

So ive been out of the game for a while, I decided to jump into some heads up matches.

I proceeded to join TEN heads up tables and every single person sat out against me.

Is poker dead?

Hi Guys

So after running bad for quite a while and never really getting a foot up on poker, I feel like I grasp so many concepts better than other players who do better than me. So I did some research into the long run and I stumbled across this variance calculator which I am sure some of you may have used before: http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

So, lets assume I am a 3bb/100 average winner at low stakes. The worst possible run for me over 1 MILLION HANDS is break even. The probability that I will yield a loss over this period os 0.13% which (correct me if I am wrong). 1 Out of every 740 players this will happen to. Even after 2 million hands the probability of still being at a loss is still probable, given the amount of players.

Conversely, if I say I am a slight losing player -1bb/100. Over 1 MILLION HANDS, the odds that I will actually profit at the end of it is 16%, which is almost 1 in every 6 players who play bad will profit, even after 1million hands.

So this leads me on to the question:

1) Pros must exist that do not play all that well, but are in the top percentile of "running good" which means everything falls into place for them, for extended periods of time, even though they could technically be a losing player.

2) Losers must exist that are technically winning players.

Surely we must also factor in the fact people run better at different times, if you run better when you move up, you are more likely to be successful. Your mental game will be better and therefore your overall playing and profit will be better.

Also, this video is awesome:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHCHEykUxP4&list=UU6nSFpj9HTCZ5t-N3Rm3-HA

Discuss :)

Hi guys

I have been working on my game a lot recently and looking into the math behind some of the theory. Really interesting stuff. While I realise I do not need to understand everything to beat lower limits, its somthing I enjoy doing.

I was looking at hand earlier and I was trying to decide if I should be betting it, or checking it and giving up. I was trying to figure out the maths behind how much of my range I need to bet, in order to not lose money immediately. So how do we construct this range?

I need to construct a range of value and bluffs but I am not sure how to do this. The hand in question was:

Jd8h on a Th2h2c flop.

I think we must start by looking at my opening range from the button, then deciding how much of that I am betting for value. The question is how much do I need to bet in order to not be exploited?

Am I right in thinking, we must make the opponent indifferent to calling? In that if we bet 0.75 pot, if the opponent folds more than 58% of the time, we immediately profit. So we must look at constructing a range of 58% of our preflop opening range?

Im almost certain this can be solved if we plug in some assumptions, but Im just a little lost at this point.

Cheers