Mathematic question about semi-bluffing in poker!

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Mathematic question about semi-bluffing in poker!

Hello everyone,

This is an assertion as much as it is a question.
I have a calculation but I'm not sure if I'm thinking right. Therefore, it would be helpful if other eyes can look at this and say if it is right or wrong. If that's wrong, I'd love to learn how to think about it instead.

We have 65 of harts and villain have AA without harts.
Flopp is KQ9 with two harts.
Therefore, we have a flushdraw on the flop without overcards and we have 37,5% chans of winning.

The pot is $1000 and the action is,
Villian bets $500 and hero shove all in for $2000.

We all know that if villian folds hero win $1000(pot)+$500(villians bet)=$1500
If he calls we loose $2000 but we can draw out on him therefore we only loose:

-- This is my calculation --
$2000(hero bet)+$2000(villian bet)+$1000(pot)=$5000
..37,5% is hero chans of winning when called..
$5000*0,375=$1875
$2000(hero bet)-$1875(getting back when called)=$125
-- End of calculation --

Now we can say:
If he folds we win $1500
If he calls we loose $125

So then,
1500/(1500+125) = .9

So if he calls 90% we’re breaking even. Any less and we’re in the positive.

I think im right but I really need to get lectured if im wrong.

Thanks to all that did take time to read this!

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