AggroShooter

so a portion of their calling range is blocked by the ace you're
holding

I think when we 3bet this hand we are happy to see a fold pre. So blocking a part of his continuing range is good imo and we should obtain more folds, what I'm missing?

so A8s shouldn't be in your range in general and even if you're
exploiting (i.e. if villain overfolds to 3-bets)

Can you elaborate a bit on this? If villain is folding a lot, our hand shouldn't matter...

Ty again for your reply, you are right on everything :)

Ty for your comment, however I'm trying only to figure out math given very strict hands

Well yeah, you are more than right, it's cleat that people aren't going to paid light as it used to. Nice reminder btw, since in game I'm overvaluing IO for sure

Ty a lot, it does make a lot of sense

I would just fold then

You have to write how's you opening size and how was his 3bet size, I'm assuming you have 100BB effective stack

Anyway, it is very complicated to asses variance... many many factors are involved. For example my last 18k have this stats

As you can see I got dealt 20 AA/KK less than the average and I'm losing with JJ-KK. This could be variance :p

In the end, try to play your best

My std dev is at 85,2

Ty, let someone more competent comment on that because I don't know how to interpret that stat

fromBio, pics, graphs, quarterly report and random thoughts
http://www.runitonce.com/chatter/bio-pics-graphs-quarterly-report-and/

it is because your winrate has actually nothing to do with variance,
the quantity that really matters is your standard deviation, which you
can find in pt4 or HM2 and which varies widely depending on which
games you play and also on your playing style.

I never understand why and I never dig too much in that... what do you think?

I don't see myself holding a draw often here, especially given my action preflop, probably the only combo is Ac Kc.
Regarding TT-JJ calling sometimes, dunno, I mean I don't know if in my field they do that. I think I will check my DB and find out

Wait, if you shove over a bet you are expect some FE right? Do you think overpairs are going to fold?

Doesn't this make our hand face up? We would do it with a set

Obv you are right, we are a small favorite vs a hand strong as an overpair.
Let's say Villain turn his hand up and he show you KK, how would you played it on blank turn?

I'll try :)

1) What assumptions must be true for you to call?

Villain must have bluffs or overplays in his range

2) What assumptions must be true for you to fold?

The contrary of above

3) Given his stats and population tendencies, which assumptions are more likely to be true: 1 or 2?

This is tricky, because population tendecies could be unreliable on a small sample (some millions of hands). Also, you have to use a DB properly to get the right answer. I would say close to 99% of player can't get that information right.
If you use your memory instead of DB analysis you will be prone to errors. For instance, I would say villains aren't bluffing enough in 3bet pots when they 3barrells, am I wrong? Dunno actually. Memory tells me that, DB analysis could tell me another thing

17k hands
Barreling OOP in 3bet pots - 49/60/100(3)
Barreling OOP in 2bet pots 42/60/83(6)

Something is wrong here, you meant 1,7k hands right? 'Cause 3 and 6 instances are way too low for that sample

How to use these results? Copying Pio post flop strategies is not the
way to go. But you can start the learning curve by picking low-hanging
fruit (say, check if Pio's must-bets, must-folds, must-raises are
roughly in line with how you play)

Noob Q: Pio's must-plays yields the highest EV even vs a huge fish? I mean, a must-bet for Pio could has less EV than a check vs a fish?

Xmas update plz :)

PT4 doesn't have built-in badges but you can code them pretty easily. Like heatmaps, game trees and other things.. obv you gotta know something about coding and SQL, but it is not that difficult

Hi, the example below could be what you are looking for?

I've sent you a PM

flop sizing is good, I think you are going to bet most of your range so it is fine

Welcome back Gaucan

OTR I would make it 5,50 or 6 it makes your hand looks bluffy and he probably have a bluffcatcher. I don't think you have bluffs OTR when you bet half pot, so he could exploitatively fold.

Hi Nick, don't you think that take every month 2/3 of the profit would slow down the level ups and the montly earinings in the long run? Why don't you consider a more flexible profit share?