Shadowfax

If you know your opponent only 4bets with AA KK AK then you should have an idea of his postflop strategy which in all honesty, is just as important if not more given you will still have 70% of your opening stack still to play for.

At 16nl, I wouldn't overthink these spots too much.

Your river bet works perfectly as an exploit against a population that overfolds in 3bet pots after checking back the turn.

You mention having a pool read to justify a fold. It is unlikely you have enough hands on pool to make that conclusion in such a rare 4bet/call spot.

Not sure he needs enough hands in rare 4bet pots to know that population underbluffs heavily in 100bb+ pots, especially your regular nitty reg 3betting 6%. If population are underbluffing in 3bet pots at 150bbs they also underbluff in 4bet pots.

With 6 combos of AA still out there as possibles for overvaluing, you also have TT that you beat - does TT call turn? Possibly.

In terms of bluffs - QQd, JJd.
Thinking they are value jams - AA, TT
Value jams: QJdd, AQdd, AJdd, A5dd.

Its so close between a call or a fold that I would probably tend toward a fold given you are up against an underbluffing population.

In the heat of battle though, its hard to fold a set of Kings so I wouldnt blame you for calling - Id probably find it hard to find a fold in game.

Tbh your better off putting some time and effort into learning more about cbetting strategy and improving on where you think you are making mistakes than just range betting every flop.

Decent 100nl regs are going to start exploiting you by check raising/ raising more flops when they see your cbet stat.

If you want to start 3betting more flops then you have to learn that particular strategy very well or the mistakes will cost you.

Bet really small on turn then jam blank rivers.
You are targetting his KQs, QJs, JJ, TT type hands.
Yeah he can show up here with some set mined pairs or even AA KK but that happens.

Not sure where you are getting "stickiness" from - hes called one tiny postflop bet so far.

You've already called his expensive 3bet pre and then he bets 50% on the flop - when you actually do hit your hand you then check!! You just have to bet this turn all day long.

What is your reason for checking? He could be going for a check raise and you end up getting it on turn with the nuts.

At 16z it is really important to extract every ounce of value out of the players who cant fold.

Im just trying to see what we rep on the turn with our double check wondering if villain is going to see that as weakness, despite the XR. The fact he checks back flop - and he will do this a lot with missed overcards - would make me a little suspicous when you check again as you are probably leading out with most of your value range for protection unless you have a lights out lead he delay cbets a ton - which you wont have with just 200 hands on villain.

Yeah you have Ad blocker but 25nl villains can be sticky once they throw money in the pot.

I see you posting hands at 2nl. With that in mind, I would suggest buying Petes course first and probably even the grinders manual to go with it. Learn the basics, playing an exploitative style. A solver might just be too early atm as players just arent capable of node locking correctly for the low stakes pool, its too much work.

If you take solver suggestions as they are at 2nl, it will just make you leave money on the table.

Don't mind a block here of around 1/3rd. I've been trying this out a fair bit on turn cards that fill draws that I used to check. Imagine you check here and river is J or A, it just puts you in a really tough spot.

If you bet and villain jams then it's AJ/J9 nearly always

• Get hold of some preflop charts so that you can compare what you are currently raising/flatting with what you perhaps could be. Pokersnowie do a free tool that allows you to view opening ranges. Obviously obeying them exactly is an impossible task given the frequencies on them, however as a general guide they would take you to 26/22ish.

• As you move up in stakes with those stats, better players will spot you instantly and will refuse to pay you off when you bet and will take advantage when you show weakness. Thats fine at 5nl but 25nl+ you will struggle against the regs. You will always make money with those stats against the recs tho.

• Learn to probe bet efficiently, start playing your range and not your hand.

I think if you are having problems in your game then red line is certainly something to look at and not be ignored. A breakeven or losing player with a red line that heads south would improve by upping his aggression which in turn would reduce the angle of the red line.

As the poster above says, better players than him have said red line doesnt really matter, and I think to a certain extent that is true dependant on overall game.

At the micros its probably a fundamental mistake to be playing too aggressively in certain spots because your opponents are folding too much . So much money is made at the micros by our opponents calling rather than folding so continually pushing them off hands to up our red line is not maximising win rate.

We all have different styles and we can change styles between sites at the same limits. I play way different on 888 compared toi pokerstars because the player pool at pokerstars is way stronger than 888. As a result, I will bluff more in certain spots at stars because i know the regs are capable of folding top pair when I rep the rivered flush or whatever.

Just keep looking for spots where players overfold on a regular basis.

Most regs leak like a sieve in SRP from EP/MP when they face an IP caller because they check fold too much or they check call flop but check fold turn instead. A huge leak and if you arent probing in that spot your missing out on some red line action.

Villain doesnt top up pre - Im guessing those stack sizes are after the action rather than before.

If villain is on the tighter side as you suggest, I'm struggling to see what you beat.

Is he really check raise jamming a hand such as A4? 4s are blocked anyway so very few combos remain. Even a hand like Q4s seems unlikely as it would have to be exactly Q4ss although he could flat 42ss

Most probably 3bets QQ pre and flats 22. Would he call turn with 88 unblocking clubs? Possibly.

So for value we're now left with AXcc & KXcc combos. Not sure he would raise jam KXcc otr but he might. AKcc, AJcc, ATcc more than likely 3bet pre but who knows with a tight reg, you see those being flat all the time..

I just think there are too many value combos that beat you compared to the combos that he a) value jams but you beat or b) bluff jams - but tight regs aren't bluff jamming an awful lot (but they do now and again when tilting or feeling a llittle exciteable)

Value

3 combos of 22
Q4ss
3 combos of 88
A3cc, A5cc, A6cc, A7cc, A9cc, ATcc . That's 13 combos already.

Bluffs

Ac4s (he might not think hes bluffing this), Ac3, Ac5

Unlikely bluffs
AcQs, AcQd, AcQh < Most probably not bluffing these as he they are great bluffcatchers.

I just cant see you coming up with enough bluff combos to warrant calling to hit that MDF on the river. Not against that player type that doesnt top up pre. Against a whale Im snapping as his range has so much valuecutting hands in it to add to the numerous unbalanced bluffs.

If you are lost in these spots Id suggest doing some HEM2 work and look at 3bet pots UTG v SB/BB, filtering for sd so that you can really get a flavour for the types of ranges you will be up against - youd be surprised at how tight it will be.

BB- tight

And hes cold 4betting versus UTG + BTN. Id be folding here with this positional dynamic.
If it were BTN then SB then BB cold 4 then it would be snap jam.

Thats the beauty of poker chao, sometimes there is no easy answer :)

I notice you are playing 25nlz from your other posts. At this limit your cb sizing should be opponent dependant first, board dependant second. Just exploitabet your way through this limit and you'll be fine.

As a rule of thumb against regs:

1/4 - 1/3rd pot on most dry boards
Closer to 2/3rds on wetter boards
Also have a checking range with your strong hands against regs, they can't deal with it and it confuses them

Against the recs you just CB small to get folds when you dont have it and hope he folds and bet big with your strong hands when you do have it and hope he calls.

I'm always surprised by how many regs insta fold to 1/3rd - 1/4 size cb in 3b pots. You obviously get the peelers within the pool but so many are straightforward set mining or whatever and just play fit or fold.

UTG v SB I think we have to assume SB is fairly strong here although who knows if you say he's weak.

Good argument for checking back turn and bluffcatching river as you effectively only have 2nd pair on a board where SB's calling range should hit that flop pretty hard.

Your a brave guy playing for stacks here but Im a nit and will take a more passive line from the turn onwards given our relative hand strength.

Start making those exploitable river folds and your winrate will explode.

I think you answered the question with the first line in your OP. Villain is passive post flop. Villains also bluff paired turns way way less so your TT is just a pure bluffcatcher and a passive opponent isnt who you want to multi-street bluffcatch against.

Study Ishters vids 24/7. They are RIO gold.

Against a one tabling rec I would overbet the turn.

River isn't easy, not sure you have room to bet fold so its either check call or check fold. I guess flopzilla is your friend on this river. He has flushes, busted str8 draws, full house, trips. If I said check call Id only be guessing, think you have to run this spot.

Turn is close but river would be a fold for me.

Given villains bet sizing it would be interesting to know what people would do if they held Ah and stacks were 200bbs deep...

Although you will see total trash some of the time, I don't think you'll see it enough to warrant a three street calldown. Making folds like this might seem bad at the time but they greatly improve your win rate.

What makes me err on the side of folding is our positions. BTN v MP - a call might be easier if you were say BTN v SB or BTN v BB.

Flop is fine against this villain (although sample size is tiny). Turn is probably a fold as you could be drawing dead. Had the board not paired then it would be a simple math problem working out your implied odds and would likely be a call.

I'd be much happier folding if we had say 360 hands on villain and the stats were similar. 0.5aggression wouldn't be suggestive of a player who fast players flush draws so you could rule out a worse draw.

In terms of shoving flop - there are better opponents to do this against. Aggro regs mainly who step out of line and you know will gii with a worse draw or something weak like TPBK where you end up having a ton of pair outs to go with your nfd.

I see I posted this 10 months ago. Pretty cringeworthy tbh - what on earth am I doing bluffing someone with 38% WTSD? End of thread!

Some great replies so far!

You aren't going to fold out any kind of ace on that river at 50nl with any real frequency.

I'd check behind on flop - you have sd value and your gutshot. If you triple this runout as played you are going to be tripling a lot of boards! The only thing you have going for you is you unblock the flush draw which will be a part of his folding range - but only a part.

When you get the urge to spew like this, sit on your hands and think it out. I still suffer from FPS but it's gradually going out of my game as it costs us £000s.

I believe Elite coach Zeljko spent a lot of time with Snowie and he plays a great game.

A lot depends on what limit you play. If you play at micro stakes and adopt snowies strategy you will find that your bluffs get called too often to be profitable and you also miss a ton of value by checking spots that snowie tells you to check where a more exploitative strategy is better.