Sicarius

I would fold QQ here pretty easily on the river. I would call with 4x, any boat and potentially herocall some Jx and probably just fold any overpair. In general when regs flat from the SB they usually have decently strong showdown hands and after c/c the flop he probably has some decent showdownvalue thats likely just calling down or has something strong enough to raise for value. You just dont see the smallblinds c/c flop and c/r turn as a bluff to often.

I found that on these types of boards where villain reps nothing and your range contains lots of strong pairs that people are rarely bluffing especially for a 2x potbet.

I got:

61% fold bb vs BTN steal

c/f flop as pfr -> I cant find this stat in PT4

47% fold vs cbet BOTH in 2bet and 3bet pots

40% fold to Turn cbet BOTH in 2bet and 3bet pots

Call 3bet% 54-58% depending on position see Stats in OP

48% fold vs 4bet after 3betting

Edit:

I also checked fold to cbet in HU pots only and its ~44% for both 2bet and 3bet pots

Also c/r flop is 10.4% and 8.7% c/r total
Raise Fcbet is 12.4%

This is way to nitty, right?

430k hands @ 100nlzoom @ 6.4bb
285k hands @ 200nlzoom @ 2.4bb

I tried to do one of these calcs myself. Can anyone help me if I did it correct?

This particular villain I played 4bets 14.4% and has a 4bet range of 8.2. If I assume a stackoff range of JJ+/AQs+ I should have 59.8% FE and 30% equity with A3s

He opened CO to 2.5bb I 3bet to 8bb he 4bet to 18bb I shoved for 101.5bb with A3s

(FE*POT) + (1-FE)*((EQUITY*WINNINGS) + (1-EQUITY*LOSSES)) = EV

(.598*27.5) + (.412)*((.30*103) - (.70*-93.5)) =

16.445 + (.412)*(30.9-65.45)

16.445 + (.412)*(-34.55)

16.445 + -14.234 = + 2.2bb

EVshoving +2.2bb

EVfolding -8bb

If I did it right, does it mean that shoving is 10.2bb better then folding? Or a shove just wins me 2.2bb and the EV of folding is 0?

Thx guys! To bad I got hit with the doomswitch so far this year. :(

Yes, most of it is zoom.