1tuffwinky very good analysis!
It looks bad and it hurts (for me at least) folding this hand pre, but for the reasons you mentioned i do believe folding pre is the best play.
As played yeah, standard 4-bet by Hero.
April 27, 2017 | 10:17 a.m.
i think bet calling it off is the way to go in my opinion.
Sure when he pots you'll run into some sets and nut flushdraws but those are quite rare and even then your equity is OK, but you'll also run into two pairs which you're flipping, and into flushdraw+straight draw type hands which you're dominating.
When he just calls however you're pushing a TON of equity against his range which might include weaker flushdraws and some random pairs with not much else going on.
If Villain just calls i would probably fold if bet into or check back on a 8 7 6 or 3 turn, would probably call/check back on a 9 turn, and would ship the remaining stack vs a bet or pot vs a check on any A 2 T Q K or a turned Heart.
On a 4, 5 or J turn i would consider (player dependent) betting my hand if checked to me and fold if bet into.
April 27, 2017 | 10:03 a.m.
Well you didn't shove per se, but definitely a standard pot commit on your behalf.
As for the SB, assuming you have AA and BTN doesn't have KK JJ or KJ almost ever as he just called your bet on the flop, i would say shoving there with a pair+wrap on a rainbow board is most likely the best play with that SPR.
Remember you're playing 200/400 so SB and BTN are playing 100bbs effective so not really that big a stack, plus it's a 3bet pot.
April 27, 2017 | 9:29 a.m.
So you're assuming UTG+1 is raising pre with 100% of all QQ, 66, 33 or 45?
And that he's leading flop with 100% of said 45 on the flop?
So he's opening pre AND leading flop vs 3 players with T845r for example?
Must be a good game!
April 20, 2017 | 12:19 p.m.
What exactly do you mean by high equity draws on a Q63r flop?
Q blocker is relevant, but not massive whatsoever when he leads flop vs 3 players.
April 20, 2017 | 12:15 p.m.
Live play is pretty straight forward imo.
Alright, assuming he is not a complete donk and his pre flop range when opening UTG+1 full ring is somewhat reasonable, let's deconstruct his range for leading flop against 3 players, and then we'll put it against our hand to see how it plays out:
KK45:hh/dd/ss (maybe), 6543$ds, 7654$ds, 7653$ds, A754$ds, (66/33/QQ):20%, Q6:20%, and KQJT type hands (rundowns that contain a Q) also crossed with top 20% range.
To make your case for calling flop I included all of this in his leading range, including the KK, which I'm not sure he will lead, because as you said, you have a tight image and he's putting you on AA, or the Qrundowns, but let's say he does.
Doing this on PropokerTools we get that hero is a 32,4% dog.
Hence you should have folded the flop imo because you wont be able to realize your equity on any cards but a turned A, Heart or maybe a Q, 6 or 3, but even on those three cards if he bets somewhat big, we'll have to be forced to fold i think.
But since you didn't, on the turn it gets a bit trickier.
Because of his bet on the turn we have to take out some parts of his range, like all the small two pairs or wraps that didnt pick up a flushdraw, as well as the KK45 that didn't pick up hearts, and most likely the Q6 if it didn't catch a flusdraw as well.
So vs this new range hero is a 32,7% dog.
The pot is 1290 and he bets 1000€, and the that leaves you with 1280€ behind if you call.
So we're putting 1k into a 3,29k pot.
We need 30% to make the call, which we have against range, but that is assuming he won't turn his QJ into a bluff on a 6 or a 3 turn, and that he wont turn his 63 into a bluff when a Q or a J hits, and we do have some reversed implied odds when the A hits and he shows up with KT and probably no implied odds when the A hits (i think he'll probably be able to get away), but we might have some implied odds when the heart comes so all and all, i think it's very player dependent, if he's decent enough to put you on AA and bluff some turn cards and not pay you off on when the A hits, and if he's only paying you off on a Heart river when he himself has hearts thus making the likelihood of a heart coming very slim, then i say it's a fold, but if you're playing against a player who doesn't think things through, i would say call turn and fold any brick rivers, and maybe even bluff some K or T rivers if checked to, but it's ambitious.
Long coment i know but in conclusion, fold flop, if call just continue to call on the turn against some players, fold against others, and decide river, no reason to ship turn imo, there are very few combos that we are ahead at the moment.
April 20, 2017 | 11:58 a.m.
Olá André, bom video!
At @9:44 you folded A997ccss in the SB vs a min open UTG and a call UTG+1, is this a standard fold for you?
Or did you make this fold based on a very squeze happy player on the BB?
Even then, you are getting an exceptional price with a hand that plays well multiway, a little less given that you're OOP, but still, definitely worth a call imo.
April 19, 2017 | 5:37 a.m.
Hello Zach, great video!
I have to say though I disagree with what you said @50:00 with SB (or you for that matter) not having to worry about MP having him beat, i feel he/you should be worried, at the very least some of the time. MP limped then cold called a 3bet with action still behind him, pretty strong imo, it's a scenario which some players (regulars that is) with ragity or even non raggity AA will do at 500bb deep with the 3better. I agree that he would be 4betting most premium AA but even then, he will be left most likely HU with the SB with an SPR of 3 and a VERY capped range, which is not terrible, but not really where you want to be. where as if he just calls the 3 bet, he adds the benifit of having the possibility of the "short stack" (you) shoving plus some deceptive value on A high boards.
Keep up the good work!
April 18, 2017 | 3:40 p.m.
In this spot*
April 13, 2017 | 9:11 a.m.
However if we are to assume he is only doing this with sets is plays poorly jamming turns.
But against a player that raises a wider range of hands in this pot a jam works very nicely.
April 13, 2017 | 9:11 a.m.
Cbet wrong sizinhg totally agree, not really the point of this thread, but totally agree, i do feel like it's slightly more profitable to cbet-fold vs the live passive field, but i wanted to explore the possibility of a peel on the flop.
April 8, 2017 | 1:51 p.m.
Great video as always Phil.
@20:00 what type of hands will you choose to bluff in this spot with a bet check bet line on this particular runnout?
Will you bluff hands like JJ9x with/without a flushdraw or will you take them to showdown?
(If you do play them this way that is)
March 21, 2017 | 12:41 a.m.
Ok i think I've analyzed this correctly.
Please correct me if I'm wrong
Rough Villain's Range: Q7$ds, QQ, 22$ds, 77$ds, Ax[K-T]2x2, Ax[K-T]7x7, A22$ds, A77$ds
Calculating our equity vs range on our continuing turns (56% of the time - those 24 cards i mentioned) through ProPokerTools we get roughly 35%.
So, assuming a turn bet of 180€ (=2/3 of the pot), this equation should solve our problem:
-30,8 - 91 + 73,5 + 0,2Y > 0
0,2Y > 48,3 <=> || Y > 241€ ||
So by my calculations, for the sake of the argument and assuming he's going to pay us off 100% of the time on the river (of course i would make adjustments to this value if i thought he would not pay us in some rivers or not everytime) we would only need to bet 241€ to make this a +EV peel.
Is this correct?
March 19, 2017 | 7:25 a.m.
Sorry in advance for posting this in the HighStakes thread, but that's where I figured it would get the most answers.
Ok so We're playing PLO 1/2€ with a 4€ Button Straddle.
Hero is in the Big blind with 950€
Villain is a winning reg, not known to make big plays or anything, but solid, and is in the Small blind with over 1000€.
Villain calls the 4€ straddle, Hero raises 15€ With Jc10c9s8s, button calls, Villain calls.
Villain checks, Hero bets 40€, button folds, Villain raises 110€.
At this point we assume the villain has Q7+, so bluffing on later streets for us is mostly out of the picture, maybe on an A or a 2 turn that gives us a flush draw if Villain checks to us and we sense some weekness. But mostly out of the picture.
Here is my reasoning to make the peel, despite the fact that i am calling to HIT a draw, which i know sounds pretty bad:
Villain is giving us a decent price here to peel (a bit less than 3 to 1).
We will continue about 56% of the time on the turn (20 outs for any wrap, (with 8 of them giving us wrap + flushdraw), plus an additional 4 outs (Ac As 5c 5s) that gives us gutshot+flush draw minus 1 of our outs that we assume Villain will have in his range, so 23/41=56%)
We know also that because his range is so QQ heavy on most turns he will give us a very or somewhat good of a price because he will think he is crushing our hand and doesn't want to push us away (he wont be putting us on our particular hand, he'll put us on Kk AA or a AKqx type hand), so assume a 2/3 or under bet on most turns, lets say 2/3 (which was the amount he bet btw, on a 8c turn).
We have to count also the implied odds we are going to get on the river in case we hit, and that's exactly what I'm trying to figure out.
Im sure some basic math will reach a conclusion, can any of you help me?
Thanks so much,
Have a nice day
March 19, 2017 | 5:12 a.m.
Are you expecting to get called by a Jhigh flush?
That is if he EVER raised you there with Jhigh flush, which he wouldn't.
I don't really see the point of shoving here whatsoever.
It seems to me that you have only two options here, and shoving on top of the x/r is defending not one of them.
If you believe he is capable of bluffing in this spot and likes to attack these small bets, then you should call and let him bluff the river, if not folding seems quite reasonable, given the way most people play (at a 5/10 live game)...
March 16, 2017 | 11:16 p.m.
Holdem manager (or omaha manager)
March 7, 2017 | 10:42 p.m.
It has to be this way, this is a business after all, and there are no free lunches.
Besides, the people that are viewing the essencial videos surely will realize (in case they are knowledge hungry) that the monthly payment for Elite videos is more than worth it.
Feb. 26, 2017 | 10:24 p.m.
I'm currently traveling through Europe playing Mid to HighStakes in a bunch of casinos with over 50k in my wallet and pocked (500€ notes) but always afraid of being caught in the airport (maximum allowed is 10k) and if so, I don't know what will happen.
I dont want to declare it because i dont want to pay taxes...
For all of you live highstakes regs out there how do you go about traveling with a lot of money by plane?
Thanks a lot,
Keen to here from you