João Guimarães

Hey man, definitely interested. Will wait anxiously for the summary then :)

I did it in PIO here and even though IP bet % dropped, the effect was still less dramatic than I was expecting. Maybe 456 would be a better board to see the effect at full. I would still advise you to check what a few human imbalances, like, let's say, donking too strong, would make to the strategies when OOP donks and when OOP checks.

I'm not using a GTOw premium sub right now, but from what I remember it's straightforward. Yes, custom solution, then you specifiy that the only action for BB on the flop is check. I would do this and generate another custom sim without this limitation to serve as the control.

After you generate this custom sim as the control, you can also just go over the sim using the actual nodelock and use the sliders to remove all bets from OOP and give 100% check, lock and that's it.

Maybe the 2nd option is quicker and easier.

In my experience, regs as a whole range check virtually always on the flop. Having a balanced donk (and check) is hard, and the ones who try having one usually mess up with the other range pretty badly. I guess that's why so many coaches, even today, still don't lead flop and advise us not to do it.

I would suggest that, if you have a GTOw premium sub, or another solver, you check how the flop strategy changes when you lock OOP to not lead and instead range check on this board (and other boards where they should donk in theory).

One general advice I can give you regarding recs is to not bother trying to range them. Try to find their tendencies across lines, they are quite predictable and can be explained by things like how many hands they play preflop etc, close your eyes and apply them systematically. Basically, vs recs, trust the data above everything else.

Get comfortable with the pot odds concept, you face a b50 OTR, you can lose 75% of the time and still be breakeven, if you lose 74.99% (win 25.01%), you're +EV. Pain tolerance also, to variance, to lose 10 times in a row, and to the insane BS you will see constantly.

How soft is ACR 5nl? Do you always get at least a recreational in all tables you seat? I believe that making sure you're not wasting precious energy in -EV tables just for the sake of putting volume, and making sure you're playing well vs them and maximally exploiting them, is what will make the bulk of your winrate at these limits. You'll always have regs seated with you to practice no matter what, but tables without recs with the insane micro rake are just a waste of time and effort IMO.

Learning theory is important and essential for moving up and your future in this game, but so is learning to exploit recs. Recs play very different than regs and you have to make a lot of very uncomfortable plays to be able to get the most money vs them and get crushing winrates. Just as getting rid of common human biases, like my old friend risk aversion :)

Hey, very nice blog, I will definitely follow your journey. GLGL

I think this blog needs a graph, and an update.

I was reading some blogs the other day (not here) and came with this expression, the blackrain79 syndrome. I guess I suffer of that. Well, I am taking shots at NL50 here and there, and part of my discomfort in taking the leap is actually based in fact (I'm still doing withdrawals, even though I don't really need it for anything other than not wanting to grow a roll, self sabotage I guess, so I'm at 32 BIs for NL50, tight).

Being too comfortable with playing 25nl, but still not being comfortable with being uncomfortable, I want to make myself uncomfortable, by brute force. I made it with 25nl 2 years ago right? And I succeeded because I decided I would either succeed or bust trying. Getting encouragement from other RIO Poker Journal legends helped a ton also.

Keeping in mind that NL50 is the limit the game starts to die during at least part of the day (Talking about full ring btw), what is my plan? Well, as long as the roll stays at 1,500 or higher, I will keep the shots as long as the games are running. If I go below, or if I can't get tables, I play 25nl.

I know I stayed away for a long time, but I've been playing and updating my internal blog in the Alumni server of Detox. But, I still like this community, feel I'm a bit indebted as I got a lot of value from RIO, so I will make my best effort to bring this blog back and keep it going.

Cheers

I don't think he will come back to his fans, which is unfortunate as his blog was one of the most inspirational here, not necessarily for moving up quickly or becoming ultra rich - he basically destroys any game he plays. Saulo gave him a very big compliment during the streams pre CMS, and according to statname, fav limit is 1k on stars, played higher, and still crushes :)

He basically drew me to Nick Howard content thru his posts, and was one of my biggest poker inspirators even though I never engaged with him while he was active here.

Well, still had to take a bit of a time off (although this time I played hands in between).

Still on a bit of a be stretch. Also, ended up signing for GGPoker as an alternative, and played a few hands there. Didn't like it very much, have this odd feeling something is off (think FTP back in 2010 or so, although I don't remember anyone actually predicting what we saw in 2011). But maybe that is the future of the game, and want to keep the doors open. If you play nanostakes, up to 10nl, rake as a whole seems on par with stars right now, 3bet rake bs might make it still higher effectively, but rb is better so...

Main limit is still 25nl, and I can confidently say already that I'm psychologically stuck in there, like I did at 5nl and 10nl, so the time came that I need some concrete plan for moving up, ASAP.

35 bis, 5 bis stop loss, no excuses. Wish me DISCIPLINE!

Thanks for anyone still following :)

Cheers

*Btw, most of this was already cashed out, I don't have 5k sitting on my roll while still playing 25nl LOL

Hey folks, long time no see. Took a 2 months break from poker (real break where I removed my ability to deposit, first time I did it). Main reason for it was that I got concerned about my behavior and feelings towards the game, and felt it was becoming an actual addiction. Anyway, things went well, didn´t feel any withdrawal and in the end was looking forward to get back. So here I am, back and fresh. Let's grind!

And, just found out that I passed the 5k mark (I was already close as you guys can see in the first graph), so let's update the results:

With that said, there is a topic I've been thinking a lot and want to share my 2 cents here: variance in the game. It applies to other areas, like investing, but this is a poker forum.

Variance is a topic most, if not all, drastically misunderstand, because statistics are a difficult topic for human beings to grasp. Just think about all the counterintuitive themes this science brings.

First of all, NLH when played correctly involves lots, lots of variance, it's a relatively high std dev game. Just go to primedope and make a simulation with an average winrate of 3 bb/100 and 100 bb/100, and play around with the tool, and you'll see the lots of disgusting things you might experience (there is a graph shown on the bottom where you can play around with the slide and it will simulate a poker graph up to 10M hands, with the downswings being highlighted to you).

Ok, nowadays the cool trend is to recognize all of this, and just go say to everyone who will listen how bad things might get at poker, how even after 100k hands anything can happen to anyone blah blah blah, while ignoring the other side of statistics: someone who shows you a, let's say, 10 bb/100, over any sample but the higher the better obviously, has a higher probability of having a true winrate closer to this number, than someone with a breakeven or losing graph has of being a winner closer to 10 bb/100. Just do the math, or play around with primedope and it will show different probabilities for different true and observed winrates. It's also just how normal distributions work: events close to the center will always have a higher probsbility of happening.

My take on all of this? Use those tools, and general satistical thinking, for practical reasons, like estimating what your optimal BRM plan should be, plug it on your spreadsheet if you play for a living and regularly withdraw, add margins of safety as required, add sleep well margins if you need it, then just completely ignore and never go back to that site, or think about variance for that matter.

Don't try to understand variance, you won't, you'll just run around the extremes of overconfidence and fear. Don't do pokerdope therapy (I think Sauce used this expression lol), again, impossible to grasp it inside a human brain (I'm open to the possibility some people can get a statistical nirvana, but I never saw any boddhiStatva, not yet). Don't watch youtube channels about this topic (actually, I hate how youtube works and all the bad incentives going on, although I keep going back because it is so addictive :) ).

That's my approach. By the way, it's so unfortunate that there are actually good content on youtube, which is the rational reason for me to go there. Then, I get drawn into the trash to find out I just wasted 20-30 minutes of my time, to get 5 of actual useful stuff.

I'm afraid refahx was right after all. No, not afraid really, I have no problem recognizing that I might have been wrong. Not forgetting this blog, will always come back, but it will very likely be the most boring RIO blog, of the few ones still alive. Sorry guys and girls, but that's life.

Not saying I should go the other way around and start respecting them too much LOL. Just a balanced mindset really, not respect too much, not completely disrespect.

Respecting our Opponents

For reasons I am not sure anymore, I learned back in the day that anyone, recreational or regular (except for the occasional good one) is not really paying that much attention to what I am doing. So, worrying too much about not getting too out of line, being somewhat balanced etc, even in a known pool like pokerstars, is just costing EV. Unless we get to smallstakes++ ofcourse.

I think this might have been true up to 5 years ago, because there was virtually no table cap and most pros playing the micros would be meh players seeking the low variance massmultitable strategy. This is not the case anymore, as we know, and even at 2nl, it is quite disrespectful to expect any regular or even recs to be just a punching bag that won´t ever realize what we are doing, get curious when we see to be betting them out of pots over and over again. Yes, recs for the most part won´t come back, so it does not matter that much if they see what we are doing, but even in that case, and even if we can assume the average fun player is playing while drinking some beers etc, people have eyes, and a brain. They don´t know proper strategy, they don´t know how to proper counterexploit, but they will try if they perceive we are getting too out of line.

Not saying I think I should go the other way and just strive to be a GTO robot. Explo works, just look at that finnish guy who was winning huge playing 100z/200z/500z, when more than 1 RIO pro would say in this videos the guy was just a fish, or was crazy, "I don´t really know what this guy is doing LOL" etc, and yet, it worked in supposedly tough games. Just not assume everyone in my player pool, especially regs, are braindead.

Now, It would be a completely different story if I started playing in anon sites, but at stars, let's show a bit more respect please.

I'll definitely keep a close eye in your blog, as mixed games is something that interests me but I know very little about. Will not be able to participate much though, for this exact same reason haha.

Well, there is this investing blog I read from time to time, of a former poker player turned value investor, Alpha Vulture, where the guy discusses his investment ideas, and his reason for doing it is the accountability, to proper research and good reasoning, so that he can be confident when others challenge him in a public place. From what I´ve seen, a lot of his posts don´t get much comments at all, some do, but still, just having the, let's say, "good risk" that people will come and challenge him makes him work harder, which is exactly what he wants to accomplish.

So, in a sense, yes, it is good to have a participating audience, but to be honest the main reason for any journal, or poker blog existence, should be for his owner to do his best and achieve his goals, and a lot of the time just getting public is enough. The motivation IMHO should come from inside us, which I believe is what refahx meant.

I am not finding the Phil Galfond's video I mentioned, so gonna try to summarize briefly (my words, my takeaway). You're stuck 5k USD in a live 2/5 game after playing for close to 10 hours straight. By the way, your hourly in this game is, let's say, $50/hr. You´re tired. The game will probably run by another full hour or so. A lot of people with this rostucko mental flaw would keep playing hoping to be at least back to even to not lose the day. But does it really make sense? Not that much. Actually, what you´re really doing by sticking around is making another $50, to close the day at -4,950. Maybe not even that as you´re tired and probably not playing your best.

Anyway, I think I find a way to both make things interesting to me, remove the focus from results, while still enjoying the game. And focusing in what truly matters for my EV. The Poker Spreadsheet :D

I want to make $25/day playing 25nl, and as you guys can see, my conservative estimate when the relevant variables are the way they are was 4.302 d. So, 20.698 d left to go :)

It worked quite well actually. I was really able to dissociate myself from actual money when I put the $25 goal in EV into my mind, and my focus in ensuring all variables were at their optimal and I just keep playing, playing and playing (pool quality as far as I can tell won´t ever be A during mornings, but it's never as bad as some people might think as long as you feel ok constantly jumping around tables).

Ended up looking at my results so will post them. Obviously keeping away from the results when it is pretty obvious that we are sunrunning is difficult, at least to me.

I think my biggest mental leak is exactly this: not being able to treat these run good moments with equanimity. Not that I don´t feel down when I run bad, but my weaknesses manifest way more clearly when I win. I lose very rapidly my willingness to play, and playing even 700 hands (got a bit less than 800 today) is very hard, when I don´t have any problem putting even more than 1k when I´m running bad. I get excited. It is almost like a drug, the dopamine rush comes, I feel good, why keep playing?

I don´t have an answer to any of this. I have ideas. E.g. I got this from the PDTC, and also from one of Phil Galfond's youtube videos: We have an actual EV, I don´t know mine but I have an idea based on my current sample. 5 bb/100 is my current estimation, if I don´t let my game drop too much into C territory. Winning 15 BIs per month to me is a decent goal. So, I need 30k hands to achieve it. Putting into my mind that what I´m actually winning every single day is that, maybe even creating an spreadsheet where I track only this EV, look at it, breath it til I convince myself this is what I´m actually winning in reality, might be a solution to my struggles. Still requires discipline, is more or less a mental hack and not exactly the holy grail, but is the best idea I can pull off right now.

Would like to know if anyone else has/had in the past a similar issue.

GL everyone!

I would say the main issue here is that I don´t really know what I expect to get from having a blog, and all of them were more or less experiences. Failed experiences. It´s not really about motivation, 200k-300k hands/year of recreationally paced reg table grinding to me is really good actually, so that is not necessarily what I´m looking for. But I don´t know what I´m looking for, so guess you´re not really wrong here. :)

Who are you on 2p2 if you don´t mind me asking? Were you one of my blog's posters?

Thank you very much guys! Good luck to us all!

River pot or overbet donks are very underbluffed by recreationals, as far as I know. Interesting as it´s the exact opposite for the smaller sizings. I think it was a good fold.

Yes :)

Well fed, so let´s start with the first tactical aspect of poker: Bankroll Management.

In my opinion, while playing poker for a living is not exactly a requirement for success, and it might not necessarily be the most financially rewarding investment, improving at poker, especially at a faster rate, seems so energy/time consuming that I think not playing for a living while still attempting it is a great way to burn out very quickly.

Assuming we are playing for a living, I can see two strategies (let's say for example 1 we are already at a limit we beat and we can realistically live off):

1) Withdrawing constantly, maybe once a month or so, to cover living expenses.
2) Having maybe 6 months, 1 year of living expenses, or more, and not touching the roll till the 6 months/1 year etc timeframe, and allowing the roll to grow in the meantime.

I do not need to be a genius to know 1) would require a bigger, way bigger roll. With the obvious consequence that our move ups will happen very slowly, especially if the winrate is not good enough or we face bad variance. No mathematical proof here, but assuming you already have the 1 year live roll, from your previous job you quit last week :) , 2) is the most profitable way to go, simply because we can be more aggressive with the buy-in requirement for each stake.

But, why do we need a bankroll management plan to begin with? Well, because we do not want to go broke. But is going broke always a problem? It really depends, but I would say that, if we are playing a low stake we know, from previous experience, that we beat, and if redepositing is not a big hassle, and if the values are so low for our current situation that redepositing once or, worst case, twice, will not be a problem, then beginning the journey on a tight roll and allowing us to go broke if needed seems the most efficient approach.

Ofcourse, the time will come when we cannot do this anymore. It is a limit we do not really know whether we are profitable or not (in my case 50nl). No bankroll management will save us from going broke if we are a loser at the stake, right? Or, the value of the money is too big. In this case, we need a strategy to moving up and to moving down.

Again, I can see two ways here: Tight stops, and loose stops. The tighter the stop, the less of a roll we need before moving up, but we will be moving up and down very, very often. The looser the stop, the more buy-ins we will need before moving up, but the move downs will not be that frequent, even if we end up being net losers at the limit. To me, this is really important. If we end up failing at our shots, with the looser stop loss, three times, we probably will have a relatively big sample, enough to look for a coach and have something to work on. We can also be more detached about our cashier while playing. The most obvious negative is that the rebuilding will take more time. Overall, I think a looser stop is the more efficient approach, both to give us the best chance of sticking to the new limits, and also for overall improvement.

How will I approach BRM then? I will follow what I call the Demondoink approach, because I think he was the one who said to me in one old thread that, when playing really low, moving up should be our biggest concern, and it is better to take risks even if we end up having to redeposit, when the value of the money is still low.

I will work with 20 buy-ins for 25NL, redepositing any time it gets lower than 10 BIs. I want to move up anytime I get at least 35 BIs for the new limit, using 10 buy-in stop losses. If I fail at any shot more than 3 times, I will stop moving up and look for a coach I can work with. Rinse and repeat for any new limit I go.

Cheers

Cool that you´re back, my hero :) Hopefully Sauce will be the next one (although I believe he lives in Ontario, Canada and the game he liked the most, 500z, doesn´t run anymore anyway).

Sick two and a half years bump on this, but one idea I got a few months ago was to download pluribus hands (look for the converted 10k hands on google, it´s ready to import), and compare to it. Main caveat I can remember is that he has lower flop cbet % as his sizings start at 50% I believe. If you had this same idea before, or got a better one, then disregard what I said :)

Low volume but swingy month:

I thought a lot, while I was on the bad stretch you guys can see, about my whole approach to the game, and some lessons about myself. For example, from the rational and technical standpoint, I understand very perfectly what is going on. It´s the mental part that still fails and leads to some, let´s say, anger. Knowing I´m still prone to feel this way is good (still lots of room for improvement). Seeing that I felt this way but still kept playing according to my gameplan is also good (I am improving :) ).

Also, I will never get tired of remembering how bad my logistical approach to the game still is, and it all comes down to a simple word, discipline. I wouldn´t be surprised if a big % of the reason I have a low winrate at the micros is just this very simple factor. A few passages from a blog of someone I really respect:

"So here's my theory: I think if you're losing at low stakes, which despite the rake, should be the easiest place to win, then you are most likely breaking down at the logistical level. That means there is something fundamentally wrong with the way that you approach poker as a profession.

Just do me a favor and picture this. I am going to paint a picture of a hypothetical poker player. This person plays poker about 80-100 hours per month–not a ton of volume but definitely a respectable amount. When he does play, he makes sure that he is as focused as he possibly can be. He's not distracted by anything that's going on around him, he doesn't have his phone nearby, and he's not surfing the web while he plays. He's just hitting his volume goal and playing really high-quality poker, month in and month out.

He also doesn't have any major health issues. He sleeps well, he exercises enough, and he puts good food in his body. He studies about 20 hours per month, sometimes more when he's really feeling it. (That includes reviewing all of his pots that he has played over 10 or 15 big blinds to make sure he is able to justify all of the significant decisions he's making.) He has access to a coach who is better than him who he meets with on a regular basis. He's not under any extreme financial pressure because he has alternative sources of income, at least for now until poker becomes more profitable. He also doesn't have any major bankroll management issues and he has a solid plan for how and when he is going to move up in stakes.

Basically he knows his plan is solid, so he sticks to it. He doesn't worry extensively about his plan failing. He doesn't try to do so much that he completely burns out or forgets to enjoy his life outside of poker. He doesn't expect that success in poker will be the most difficult thing in the world. He just knows that if he lines up enough good decisions in a row, eventually he'll win enough to move up to mid stakes, and then mid stakes will eventually become high stakes.

Now imagine this player is doing all of that, and he is LOSING at low stakes.

You can't picture this person because he doesn't exist."

https://www.mobiuspoker.com/blog/the-reason-you-are-losing-at-low-stakes

Well, it´s not the first time that I set discipline goals, make the effort and it doesn´t work, but I also know myself enough that if I keep trying despite the failures will lead to success eventually.

My updates will be quarterly from now on. Worrying about results, the constant look at results I bet most of us keep doing all the time, is a very big distraction. This is probably one of the biggest trials in our self discipline, but we shouldn´t avoid important things just because they are difficult right?

Focus, focus, focus during the sessions. In everything. From preparation, to table selection, note taking, to playing focused even if that means more sessions but shorter ones.

Study obviously.

No expectations, thinking about the future or whatever. Always staying in the moment, enjoying the process, taking it seriously but still having fun.

Cheers

I used to watch a lot of videos of players playing mixed strategies on a combo by combo basis, and trying to approximate GTO, at least on the flop and turn. Never seen a good explanation on why this (with the likely errors along the way and the imbalances moving forward to later streets), is an approach that offers higher EV than a simplified one, human approach.

To me, either these guys are just deluding themselves into thinking they are approaching GTO, or they found out that the EV loss of missing the right GTO frequencies by a few points is still higher EV than simplified (maybe because this is still less exploitable in their opinions, but is it really?)

What do you think of players RNGing decisions, on the flop for example, and trying to "memorize" GTO wizard?