On 2h 2c 4s 8s Kh, villain will get to the river with AsQs, AsJs, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs8s, JsTs Js9s, Js8s, so 9 combos. That's something like 15-20% of villains overall range! So having QsJs instead of some other QJ is a massive difference.
Feb. 20, 2018 | 8:54 a.m.
You're very tight. I would recommend just watching any vids really and try to figure out what sort of ranges coaches are using in various situations. And when you do start playing more hands, I would recommend cutting one table off, so I'd 2 table atleast for a while.
Don't think of it as "being stuck at NL25z". There's no rush to move up or start winning or anything like that. All you should be doing is trying to impove and getting some experience.
Start posting hands on forums to get some feedback. It'll also force you to think about your game critically, which is essential for improvement.
Feb. 19, 2018 | 6:51 p.m.
IP is supposed to call all two overs with spades on the flop, so he ends up with a lot of missed flushdraws on the river that you block. You do block KsQs and KsJs but that's a pretty small thing considering the fact that other bluffing hands block some of villains calling hands on the river (something like 9 blocker is actually better because it blocks more 99 and therefore it blocks more valuecombos than QsJs that blocks only 2).
So, "spades are pretty bad for bluffing here" would be the short answer.
In practice it is a tempting bluffing spot even with a hand as poor as QsJs, so I don't really mind the actual play againts a weak opposition. But it's not great againts a good opponent or againts computer.
Feb. 18, 2018 | 6:38 p.m.
You probably shouldn't be calling the UTG open with JTs here if BTN is really aggressive. Calling becomes viable if the table is passive, but even then rake kinda kills the EV you might get.
River is just a shove I think. It's certainly possible that you're beat but I think your hand strenght is enough for shoving. If villain 3bets a lot then he should have a lot of Qx/JT to call with. He might also find a call with stuff like AhAx.
If you do check, I think you have to fold to a shove. Shoving yourself is certainly better than check/calling in a spot where it's really hard for villain to have bluffs.
Feb. 18, 2018 | 11:15 a.m.
Use pokerdope variance calculator, the best tool I know of that helps you get a better understanding of the numbers behind variance in poker.
Not sure how all-in EV is different than overall EV in terms of probability tho.
Feb. 16, 2018 | 5:54 a.m.
You're missing the fact that if you hit none of those flush cards on the first runout (more likely), then you actually have a better chance at getting there on the second runout (2 cards that aren't flushcards aren't in the deck anymore). So it evens out that way.
Feb. 14, 2018 | 4:38 p.m.
Your 3bet size seems too small to me.
River is probably a fold cuz you dont beat value and bluffs are rare (you blocking KcQc and KcJc is a pretty big deal given how narrow his betting range is supposed to be at this point.
Feb. 12, 2018 | 10:50 a.m.
Calling preflop is reasonable, but it might require some solid postflop abilities to make it profitable with NL10 rake.
I don't know how much leading we're supposed to be doing on this river, villain has a pretty strong range (potentially all KQ and also some 8x). I'm not sure villain will fine a fold with pairs either because the flushdraw misses.
Feb. 12, 2018 | 10:44 a.m.
Turn raise is probably fine because people at lower stakes have the tendency to valuebet too thin in spots like this and also be transparent with their sizes.
When he calls the raise tho, I would just give up, his range should be (too) tight and strong at this point.
Feb. 9, 2018 | 4:55 p.m.
Yes, 32 combinations. Shared cards won't matter, each combination is separate.
Similarly to Jd8d not reducing combos of Jd8s or Jd8c, KdJd won't reduce any Jd8d.
If you have 8 or K, it reduces villains valuecombos to 28 (4 x 3) + (4 x 4)
If you have J, it reduces villains valuecombos to 24 (4 x 3) + (4 x 3)
Feb. 8, 2018 | 5:09 p.m.
Feb. 3, 2018 | 5:11 p.m.
I could be wrong, especially if UTG is supposed to do calling with 77/88, but I think that A2s outperforms A9s slightly, since it plays better and has more equity againts most hands that UTG might have (straight equity).
Feb. 3, 2018 | 10:28 a.m.
Preflop call seems really bad. You can't call 8x raise with ATo in the small blind. Even AJo would be a fold for me.
Feb. 3, 2018 | 9:44 a.m.
Check/calling is likely better, unless villain's strategy is really transparent.