I would size up on every street.
Tricky river. I don't think we can fold tho. Main reason being that your opponent could easily shove KQ for value himself. There's so few hands villain reps that are worse than us. And don't get me wrong, I'm all about folding in these types of situations, but I don't think we get to do it here.
Nov. 18, 2017 | 10:54 a.m.
How do you deal with overthinking? With interests in psychology, philosophy and personal development I'm finding myself constantly trying to fix problems in my head on a rational level. The problem is that the unconscious mind doesn't always agree with your rational solutions and that leads to an inner conflict. How does one find the right balance so that he can actually use rational thinking to his advantage instead of feeling like it may just do more harm than good?
Nov. 3, 2017 | 11:23 a.m.
Checking the flop feels like a pretty big mistake unless we have some concrete reason to believe that villain is stabbing excessively versus a check. We don't want to give free cards here and we probably want to get it in before the river.
Nov. 3, 2017 | 10:57 a.m.
Your squeeze size is a pretty big mistake. Making it over 50, closer to 60 seems far better than 44.
By saying "weak" players, do you mean passive or just bad in general? Folding seems out of the question given the game you're playing in. Shoving seems quite alright, although I'm not exactly sure what consequences make calling or shoving better than the other.
Nov. 3, 2017 | 10:47 a.m.
82hands on villain 3bettin 24% overall and 20% from sb so easy defend I think. 9.0AF also too.
This seems wrong to me. His 20% SB 3bet comes from 3betting like 2 out of 10 times. I think you're reading too much into stats over too small sample. JTo is so weak that I would fold it.
On the turn I don't see much of a reason to shove instead of just calling. Odds are there, FE not so much I would say.
Oct. 31, 2017 | 4:49 p.m.
I think you could lead the turn If you like. Turn 9 hits you much more often than it hits our opponent. But I'm not sure, maybe a tight 3way cbetting range doesn't incentivise us to do that.
As played folding seems tight but I don't really have a problem with it.
Oct. 16, 2017 | 5:23 a.m.
Turn size seems like a mistake. I don't see a good reason not to bet bigger. 75% atleast.
And river is a clear call. Not sure how this exact opponent is playing, but an unknown screen name could easily show up with a flush for value. Or with a bluff. And 44.
Oct. 16, 2017 | 5:15 a.m.
During the first hand you talked about how you're not willing to stop bluffing completely but to reduce your bluffing frequency from ~30% to around 10-15%, because you want to maintain the idea of breakeven+ bluffcatches in villains mind. I get the reasoning and it makes sense.
But then on the second hand you said that your 3betting range is going to be really wide againts that specific villain because he folds to 3bets so often and that you probably should have checked the flop because of how wide your range is.
Isn't there a bit of a condradiction? The way I see it, our approach should almost be the other way around: to be really careful with our preflop frequencies and to not care as much on those river spots, because preflop spots occur way more frequently and the exploitative strategies you choose to take preflop are way more transparent compared to river strategies. It's very easy for villain to see one light 3betting hand at showdown, make a note of it and adjust immediately after (let's say you show up with something like 65o), whereas on the river, it's way harder to make such reads and it's way less obvious what you're doing.
I was wondering if you could elaborate a bit more on how you approach these situations. I've never really understood the "gotta be careful with exploiting too much" explanation on these river situations that occur really rarely and your actual strategy is so hard for your opponent to define with much confidence at all. And how all this compares to preflop exploits.
Oct. 12, 2017 | 4:36 p.m.
Yeah we actually solved and discussed this spot with @Kalupso, some quotes:
PIO barrels close to every thing as BTN except for 99, 88 and 7x
Also checks 30% of air
on the river it bluffs 50% TX and all worse
It's probably fine to fold but it's an equilibrium call
spot plays quite nitty because of how hard it's to find bluffs
One of those spots BTN range is too strong.
I don't know if sizing down like villain did is the way to go or not.
Feels more appropriate to size up and bet less often,
or bet the size he did based on blockers
PIO only uses all in OTR if I give the option to use more bet sizes
Set or stronger for value and turns some TX into a bluff.
So basically, equilibrium strategy for BTN seems pretty hard and unrealistic for villain to pull off that his range likely ends up being too value oriented in practice. And according to the sim, AK is not quite pure call, it's folded some small % of the time.
Oct. 12, 2017 | 3:41 p.m.
4bet seems far superior to calling preflop.
I'm folding the river in general. It's the type of spot where it's really hard for villain to have enough bluffs If you think about all the possible value combos and all the possible bluff combos.
Oct. 12, 2017 | 11:11 a.m.
Fold, its not a bluff :P
Oct. 11, 2017 | 12:42 p.m.
River has to be a fold I think. Villains barreling range is weighted so heavily on Ah and Kh that it feels like a huge strech to suggest that villain would have worse hands that he shoves on the river at any significant frequency.
Oct. 8, 2017 | 5:10 p.m.
Raising probably the best play tbh.
Turn is the type of spot that you can more or less solve by using equilab. I'm guessing that getting it in outperforms folding by a small margin.
Oct. 3, 2017 | 9:50 a.m.
River bet seems fine, but you could (or should, even) use a bigger size, your betting is rather againts somewhat capped range.
Also, I might often times start bluffing on the turn, checks after missed cbets tend to be weak, atleast at lower stakes, likely at NL200 too.
Oct. 3, 2017 | 9:46 a.m.
Would you mind elaborating a bit why flop call is way superior?
What happens when we raise that we want to prevent?
On a A92ss board, would raising be fine? (Where the ten could make us a valuebet too)
The problem with raising is that you don't really get value from much at all and often times you end up building the pot bigger than you'd want. I think it makes way more sense to just call, keep all the weaker stuff in villains range so that your top pair plays a little bit smoother on later streets. So the main problem is building the pot with too weak of a hand. You don't have enough equity againts villains calling range for raise to be considered value, and you have too much equity againts villains range to consider it a bluff, so raising ends up being a merge, which I'm not particularly interested in doing on this board texture againts a tight range to begin with.
Never even consider that the turn is at best a very marginal call at best, indeed.
I mean, it's gotta be a call with all your outs, but it's really not as great as it might seem at first, villains range is extremely strong. Definitely not a shove tho.
Sept. 26, 2017 | 12:49 p.m.
But we can just call, right?
Sept. 24, 2017 | 3:35 p.m.
He knew that the river 2 was coming. That is why he plays high stakes and we don't!