Samu Patronen's avatar

Samu Patronen

2099 points

Sept. 24, 2017 | 3:35 p.m.

He knew that the river 2 was coming. That is why he plays high stakes and we don't!

Sept. 24, 2017 | 3:33 p.m.

Turn is a fold, even flop is close.

Sept. 24, 2017 | 3:31 p.m.

Get it in for christs sake, two outs for straight flush!

Sept. 24, 2017 | 3:22 p.m.

I see no reason not to bet the flop with this hand.

Turn I would press the call button.

Sept. 24, 2017 | 3:20 p.m.

I clearly am doing something wrong every single time i run a pio sim because i don't have a flop raising option and i add it but for whatever reason it always says like raise 2%. is there a reason for this? What could i be doing wrong?

Not sure, I'm far from being an expert with these softwares. :P

and apparently I'm defending wayy too wide preflop wow. lol

Yeah, KJo is marginal at best, it might just be a fold with NL100 rake (snowie uses NL400 rake structure).

Sept. 24, 2017 | 1:28 p.m.

And finally, river strategy for us. Kx are never folds, for the simple reason that blocking Kx is so valuable (the difference between K7 and JT as bluffcatchers is pretty huge, even tho both are just bluffcatchers, simply because of the big blocker difference). So folding KJ, which can easily dominate value, is really far from optimal. And what that means is that folding requires really strong assumptions about villains play. I honestly wouldn't even waste my energy thinking about it, because the % of players who we should fold againts is realistically <5-10%, and we need a lot of information to identify that 5-10%. So yeah, I'm just pressing calling vast majority of the time and I wouldn't worry about it too much.

And what comes to raising Tx on the river, pio doesn't seem to like it. There is very little raising going on on the river, because the top part of your range is playing aggressively on early streets most of the time, and 8x cannot be raised for value.

Sept. 24, 2017 | 11:28 a.m.

To the river; MPs river strategy. As I suspected, villain valuebetting K9 is not unreasonable. PIO bets it for value most of the time, given the small amount of Kx compared to Tx and other weaker hands in heros range. There are a lot of possible bluffing hands for villain (PIO checks all AQ and AJ, as he should, because those hands win at showdown some % of the time, so the bluffing makes less sense with those hands compared to stuff like QJ/J9/Q9, those are the main bluffing hands for villain.

Sept. 24, 2017 | 11:22 a.m.

And here is heros strategy againts turn cbet. Pretty much all Kx are calls, almost all Tx are calls and then there's some raising with sets and semibluffs and even with some Kx (mainly because MPs turn betting strategy is so aggressive and merged that we can get away with raising some of those hands, it also prevents villain from just barreling the turn with his entire range.

Sept. 24, 2017 | 11:18 a.m.

Here is villains turn strategy. As you can see, it's really aggressive and involves a lot of merged betting and semibluffs. Why? Because he can.

Potsize/sizing are a bit off again, but it makes little to no difference for our purposes.

Sept. 24, 2017 | 11:11 a.m.

Here's my quick breakdown:

Here's the flop strategy againts villains cbet. Preflop assumptions are close to what snowie preflop advisor suggests, seems accurate enough for our purposes. Pot size is slightly off (6 instead of 6.5), but it shouldn't make a huge difference.

As you can see, KJo is a pure fold. And I would argue that your flop call is even worse in practice than pio suggests, because PIO MP strategy includes a lot of checking with AA and AK for example. So if villain bets most/all AA/KK on top of all the other hands pio suggests MP is betting, KJo is even worse off. So I think it's a pretty easy fold, really hard to come up with assumptions that make KJo a call. PIO calls KQs with a backdoow flushdraw, that would be the bottom of my range in general.

Sept. 24, 2017 | 11:09 a.m.

We would need to be up againts a really nitty player who never plays AJ like this, rarely plays draws like this and has a lot of QQ-AA in his range. Pretty hard to make that read with little data. :P

Sept. 23, 2017 | 7:37 p.m.

Shoving seems excessive. Villain would likely bet his Kx and better on the river, so it doesn't make sense to go with "he'll pay off any sizing with K" logic.

75% or so seems about right to me.

Sept. 23, 2017 | 7:35 p.m.

I agree with your analysis in the original post. I don't feel strongly one way or another about preflop so I don't mind calling.

You're rarely beat on the river and checking to bluffcatch doesn't seem too appealing to me either, so I like shoving.

Sept. 23, 2017 | 7:30 p.m.

You didn't comment your flop call. You don't think it's loose? To me it seems too loose, you don't have much going on with your hand.

As played turn and river are very easy calls. Blocking K is a really big deal here since most of villains valuebets are strong Kx (you block 4 combos of AK and 4 combos of KQ, pretty big deal), and it's not out of the question that villain is valuebetting K9, given that you're perceived to have mostly Tx-hands and missed draws in your range. Villain could also be very easily bluffing with various missed draws and all of them missed (AQ/AJ/QJs/J9s/76s/97s...).

Big mistake not to call!

And Tx-hands are mostly (if not exclusively) calls or folds on the river, unless villain folds to raises excessively.

Sept. 23, 2017 | 7:23 p.m.

I don't think you get to fold a hand as strong as this againts this action on a two-flushdraw board. You don't block any of his (semi)bluffs and you do block JJ/AA (fwiw).

Sept. 23, 2017 | 7:18 p.m.

On the flop I'm leaning towards raising, your hand is certainly good enough to raise for value and getting protection and value before the board gets bad are good things for you. With AA I'm just calling btw, because it needs less protection (no possible overcards).

I'd bet the turn, you have the best hand almost always and again, you want value and protection.

To me river seems like a really easy call, my guess is that you win something like 50% of the time, perhaps even more...?

I don't agree with your assumptions about villains play. I don't see why recreational player wouldn't be able to bet JJ/98/bluffs/whatever (with that size).

Sept. 23, 2017 | 4:46 p.m.

Annoying spot indeed. I think you're right that folding is probably mandatory. It's a spot you can more or less solve with equity calculator software.

Sept. 21, 2017 | 10:56 a.m.

You can't check/fold river, villain could bluff or bet same/worse hand for value. I prefer betting myself instead of checking tho.

KQs/88/66 are only 7 combos. There you can calculate how many worse hand combos villain has to have for you to call. Not that many!

Sept. 21, 2017 | 10:15 a.m.

Your feel is good preflop.

Turn raise seems really bad to me, you fold out all the hands that have 0 equity which you dont want to do. You dont need protection and I dont see a reason to assume that villain would checkback AK or (especially) AA on the river. I think you're being paranoid about that.

Sept. 21, 2017 | 10:08 a.m.

Preflop seems really wide and ">50%" doesn't sound too crazy to me.

Flop is weird, because If we assume that 3betting T7s is a profitable, then villains range is likely pretty tight and doesn't contain that many hands that fold to this flop. So I think I prefer checking with a hand as bad as this.

I don't really understand the logic on the turn and I don't think betting smaller allows you to valuebet "way wider". I like betting bigger, even though our hand is still pretty bad. But I guess it's fine on turn K.

River bluff is fine I guess.

Sept. 20, 2017 | 11:51 a.m.

Sept. 19, 2017 | 7:17 p.m.

Would you ever switch to a flatting range on the BTN with a fish in the BB, or some other similar scenario?

Yes! I think flatting becomes a really good idea in spots where there are recreational players in the blinds.

Sept. 17, 2017 | 10:03 p.m.

Fold if it's on pokerstars where russians get there on the river every time.

Sept. 17, 2017 | 3:39 p.m.

What range do you expect him to have here?

Some nuts, some merged value, some whatever... It's too hard and not even benefitial to go further than that in my opinion. The guy is clearly not a good or even a reasonable player so you can't estimate his range any more specifically than I just did.

Sept. 17, 2017 | 3:39 p.m.

It's not a snap call if you fist pump and high five first. I would call first and then fist pump and high five my bros.

Sept. 17, 2017 | 1:22 p.m.

Sept. 16, 2017 | 6:22 p.m.

Snowie preflop ranges are great as guidelines as far as I can tell. Although it is possible that snowie likes suited aces too much and dislikes suited connectors a bit too much (but I'm not really in a position to make strong judgements one way or another in this instance).

Sept. 15, 2017 | 11:15 a.m.

@zinom1 comment is great.

Also, check out Snowie preflop advisor. Those ranges are quite solid and work well as a starting point.

Sept. 15, 2017 | 11:06 a.m.

Very easy call, villain could be valuebetting AK and most better hands bet the turn.

Sept. 6, 2017 | 3:55 p.m.

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