Saulo Ribeiro's avatar

Saulo Ribeiro

2378 points

You said you haven been playing poker for the last 10 years in your intro. Have you ever played higher than 200nl in the past? And during these years, were you always playing full time/for a living?

July 19, 2018 | 10:26 p.m.

So you are saying you can't figure out how to beat tables with plenty of fish playing loose preflop?

Things are not looking good for you mate.

Also variance will be higher when you play deep, and I'm pretty sure the games you are playing run 200-400bbs deep all the time. If you know for sure you are a proven winner, there is nothing to worry about a 15bi downswing. However, judging by your post, I would say you aren't a proving winner.

Playing poker is a lot about confidence. Confidence allows you to have consistency in tough times. But here you are, saying that the site is rigged after losing on a 7k hand sample, and then asking for advice on how to beat loose fish.

Study more mate. Just because a game is soft, it doesnt mean you shouldn't be improving your game.

GL <3

July 17, 2018 | 2:13 a.m.

My friend zinhao asked me what had been my biggest downswing since we went all in with the MDA work. This is the sample missing around 10k hands or so from other sites. Sample is small of course, but it was very surprising for me to look at it and spot a 40k hands break even stretch, despite running at almost 10bb/100. Not only because intuitively I wouldn't expect that to happen for that winrate on a 160k hands sample (40k hands is 25% of the sample); but also because I didn't even realize I went more than a month without making money (my average volume in the past 5 months has been like 30-35k hands).

This is actually a great surprise for me because it shows that I haven't been caring about short term results at all. And I do feel like I have a much better relationship with variance today than I ever did before. Most of it I think comes from the confidence that I have in my game right now. And the rest of it comes from my past experiences teaching me that these times are actually the greatest times for improvement.

Poker feels good. It feels good to be able to look back and see how much I have grown. It feels good to help my students. I actually learn a lot from working with them. I like to be able to learn more and more about this game. The continuous improvement is real and I feel like it will never end.

I'm grateful for poker and everything it has taught me in the past 2.5 years.

This has gotten emotional for whatever reason, I don't know how nor why lol

Im privilleged as fuck. Thanks god

Thank you for reading <3

July 17, 2018 | 1:53 a.m.

Hey mate, how are you doing?

What stakes do your students play?

They are mostly playing 25-50nl atm

July 17, 2018 | 1:16 a.m.

Nice video Tyler, as always.

At 28:26 you talk about your float with T8o @ A75r BB vs BTN in a SRP. It's very interesting to me that you were honest enough to realize that, even though you could come up with an exploitative justification for your play, you actually genuinely believe that the motive was rather emotional, caused by recent losses in big pots. That's actually something Nick Howard has been talking about a lot recently, and it really got my attention.

From what I understand of his ideas, he believes that we should be avoiding making large investments in "grey zone" spots - spots where you can't make a good estimation of the EVs of the multiple strategic options in a given situation, for many different reasons - because those investments will have an impact on our mindset and most likely generate a negative effect on how we play future pots. And thats exactly what happened here to you in the ATdd hand @ 9:55, followed some time later for this T8o hand, where again you made an investment that can't be proved as +EV without specific circumstances. So the ATdd shove not only is an investment that you cannot prove to be good, but it also makes you play worse in the future.

I already knew that what Nick was saying was very powerful, because I trust him enough to assume that what he says is most likely true. However, witnessing it happening to a player like you, who has proved to be amongst the biggest winners in midstakes games, is even more eye opening.

What is your opinion on this "grey zone" investment concept I've just explained, considering the example from your video? Do you think the poker industry often pretends that technical ability is the only thing that matter for achiveing succes in poker? And how do you feel about developing a methodology that contemplates one's mindset as key a component for arriving at solutions for poker hands/decisions?

Thank you in advance

July 16, 2018 | 8:06 p.m.

Thats just variance mate, pretty normal.

July 16, 2018 | 12:30 a.m.

Hey man. Sent you a PM

July 16, 2018 | 12:21 a.m.

Save money and move out, then do what you want to do

July 12, 2018 | 10:04 p.m.

Thats not a question you should be asking. Thats not even a question that can be properly answered cuz it doesnt make sense without context. You won't become a good player by trying to achieve a certain stat in a certain spot. Also you didn't provide any parameters like, what are the positions, board textures, sizing. So that shows a lack of understanding of the game. You should be focusing on making good decisions. When you start improving your understanding of the game, you will be more aware of the incentives to raise more (or less) and your stat will naturally change towards a more optimized frequency (and I mean optimized in a sense that you will be getting closer to maximizing EV).

July 11, 2018 | 2:37 p.m.

July 10, 2018 | 1:58 a.m.

Comment | Saulo Ribeiro commented on Figuring it out

Who knows where I'd be if I never played 4 tables of micro stakes zoom and instead played 4 normal tables with sharp focus... So what I'm trying to do is to optimize my grinding habits. These things matter a lot, even though it doesn't feel like it in the moment. It's bizarre how my mind just thinks at the moment that playing more tables is manageable, when there's a crystal clear difference in the redline, for example. I see less when I play more tables, which of course makes sense, but what's crazy is that I don't seem to notice the fact that I'm seeing less in the moment!

This is so true. And it reminds me of something I read a while ago about sleep deprivation. Don't quote me on that cuz I don't remember the parameters exactly but I'm sure you can find info about this on google:

Scientists wanted to quantify the impact of sleep deprivation on human's brains capabilities. They separated 4 groups of people for an experiment. One group would sleep for 8 hours (every night) during the next week or so; the other group would sleep for 6 hours; the other, 4 hours; and the last, 0. Then, each day, all the groups would be forced to take a test, and then scientists would compare how each group performed and make conclusions. I don't remember which group was it now, but either the 4 hour or 6 hour group perfomed similar to drunk people in the test after a few days of sleep deprivation. However, when asked about how they thought they performed in the test, they said they thought their results would be fine.

People at lowstakes, who are not confirmed crushers, who play 4zoom or whatever super high volume are most of the time just clicking buttons. And yet they don't realize it. Been there, done that. Of course there are exceptions, but I don't expect them to be many.

July 9, 2018 | 8:45 p.m.

I think that the lack of efficiency and consistency are two of the main reasons why you see regs stagnate, and stay at the same stakes for years and years. This is what I just shared with my students. I hope it helps other people out there.

July 7, 2018 | 4:10 p.m.

Not sure about all, but many of these stats you want don't exist in HM2. The solution is to either buy notecaddy or switch to hand2note, which is very powerful for creating custom stats. And is just better than HM2 in pretty much everything

July 6, 2018 | 11:14 p.m.

bluffing with trips in a limped pot? I don't see how thats possible at 100bbs effective. He probably had a read that BB doesnt fold any worse Kx and discounted a bunch of flushes because of preflop + flop action and Kh/Ah blocked

July 5, 2018 | 11:37 p.m.

Probably had the most amazing experience of my poker career so far this week.

I volunteered for a session with Nick Howard for his new product and we had a HH review session this wednesday, me, Nick and my study partner Mateus, who recently showed up in another video from Nick, telling his story of how he managed to climb the stakes by using Nick's methodology, that he got from the free content alone. Check that out if you havent yet.

Nick marked 10 hands of a 5k hands 500nl sample I sent him, and we went over hand by hand doing data point analysis. It was fucking amazing. Nick's thought process and experience is just invaluable. I seriously think this video is worth tens of thousands of dollars. And by the end he congratulated us for our approach, and said that our session had been the most advanced he has ever produced. It was incredibly satisfying to hear that from the one person that inspired me to get where I am. If that wasn't enough, he said he was honored to be in a call with people that actually had more vision over an environment than himself. LOL how can someone be so humble...if it wasnt for him we wouldn't even be where we are right now. WE are fucking honored Nick...WE!!

If you are a micro player that can't afford good coaching right now, and you havent checked what Nick Howard has already offered for free to the poker community, stop what you are doing right now and just go look for it. Seriously, there is nothing more valuable in the poker industry than that. And I can say that with 100% confidence.

Thank you Nick, you are just...I don't know man, I don't even have words.

June 30, 2018 | 11:07 p.m.

The sizing isn't over important in context to what I am asking. It's a 3bet pot and we have hit that flop with this range. The question is what does our cbet strategy look like..

Sizing is extremely important, and Bubble is right. It doesnt even make sense to think of a cbetting range if we are not defining what sizing we are using. Range construction will be very different depending on the sizing we choose. And there are multiple viable options in this board texture.

Also, KJo, ATo are definitely -EV 3bets. Even AJo and KQo might be, specially if you are not playing very well postflop.

June 30, 2018 | 4:11 a.m.

You are very anxious man. Phil and Rio are doing their best

June 28, 2018 | 11:34 p.m.

lol you must be in a hell of a downswing. Poker is not for everyone mate, just face it

June 28, 2018 | 4:54 p.m.

Not really trying to play GTO here. If a hand is a profitable calldown, I will call it down. And AK/AQ are definitely +EV calldowns on that board texture vs pop.

June 25, 2018 | 5:16 p.m.

Wrong calc. The 3bet success stat from SB also accounts for when the BB cold calls or cold 4 bets the SB 3bet

June 24, 2018 | 12:59 a.m.

Weekly Update

Another week concluded. Volume was pretty low, as it has been lately. I'm watching most world cup games tho, so its time well spent xD Managed to get most of the hands from this month, so here we have our results.

My new PC arrived yesterday, and I've been setting everything up so that I can start grinding normally again. Now I can solve BvB spots in like 2 minutes, which is big improvement compared to my previous machine. Gonna be able to do stuff that I used to rent a server for, so thats nice.

Also finished my 12 classes package with my 3 main students this week. I feel very happy about how much they developed in the last 3 months; not only technically but also mentally. Here are their results:
Before Coaching
After Coaching
Obviously they still have lots of things to improve at, as so do I. But I'm positive that they evolved in 3 months as much as I did in more than a year by myself. I also learned quite a lot from them, which was something I wasnt expecting, at least not at such magnitude. It was so eye opening to me to see how much of a player's growth is related to their mental game and mindset during play. I was able to clearly detect fear of failure tilt, mistake tilt, contradictory thought processes, self sabotaging habits of projecting a way of thinking into the opponents, the use of random hand reading and non objective reasonings for plays, and so on. I tried my best to fix those problems in them, and I think that had a great effect in my own mental game. Now I can spot that kind of behaviour for myself more easily. All things considered, it was a great experience for me, and I feel good about accomplishing something that I wanted. I dont plan on offering private coaching for the near future, but me and my students will continue to work together over skype. We developed a relationship that went beyond the coach-coached professional level, and I really want to follow their continued improvement.

Some fun hands:

The dream
Max value
I had to check the board 5 times to believe this showdown
Max value 2
LOL this one was sick
Value of blockers

Thats it for today. GL everyone

June 24, 2018 | 12:51 a.m.

Gzus guys...its not rocket science lol just right click the file -> open with -> pioviewer.exe

June 23, 2018 | 4:24 a.m.

Nope. Free version will do

June 22, 2018 | 7:38 p.m.

Haha seems like you are kinda clueless about the use of what you downloaded mate. You are supposed to open those .cfr files in PioSolver. You are going to take the ranges from the solved trees

June 21, 2018 | 8:53 p.m.

That said, its not really that hard to lock multiple turns. Most of the time you dont even need to lock all of them to get a flop deviation. And you can also extrapolate results for other spots so that you dont need to repeat the process again. Same goes for river. You can solve an specific turn and then lock a few rivers and then extrapolate results to other turns. The real problem would be to try to get flop deviations by locking river deviations...that is probably not practical

June 21, 2018 | 3 a.m.

Not expecting anything, just wondering. Is it implausible to hope that someone can give me the option to lock a strategy and then choose which turns to apply that to without selecting each individual turn and doing it manually? Doesn't seem that far fetched to me

Well thats exactly what I said:

Maybe there could be a tool that allows you to set the same range composition for all turns but that would be very innacurate since different turns will be played differently / will interact differently with the ranges.

You would lose accuracy but that could be potentially compensate for the time saved.

And actually CREV's solver does let me "magically" lock a strategy for all turns. If they would just magically let me choose which cards to apply that to, I'd be in business.

Are you talking about GTO+?

June 21, 2018 | 2:57 a.m.

I can actually lock general strategies for all turns using crev but its slightly messy because not all turns are created equal when assuming villain's strategy. I was just wondering if any other solver has reconciled this issue in an easy, more accurate way.

Not sure what you are expecting...the software cant magically lock all turns for you, you are the one who has to input it. Maybe there could be a tool that allows you to set the same range composition for all turns but that would be very innacurate since different turns will be played differently / will interact differently with the ranges.

Does that mean i lock a strat for one specific turn and then pio automatically applies that strategy to similar turns?

Not similar turns, strategically equivalent turns. Like 2h/2s/2c on a AdKdQd flop. So if you lock only the 2h, Pio locks the 2s and the 2c automatically.

June 20, 2018 | 10:45 p.m.

If solvers dont allow us to assume a strategy for all turns

They do, just not all at once. You have to do it one by one. Pio actually automatically locks strategically equivalent cards for you. So thats a bonus

June 20, 2018 | 9:42 p.m.

You have to lock all turns bro...there is no way around it

June 20, 2018 | 9:42 p.m.

Comment | Saulo Ribeiro commented on Figuring it out

Subbed man, looking forward for more as well. GL

June 18, 2018 | 7:04 p.m.

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