thk3421
0 points
My question is whether the Net Expected Won value should converge to the Dollars Won value after a sufficiently large enough sample? According to PT website the answer is that in the long run the two will converge.
http://www.pokertracker.com/guides/PT4/tutorials/all-in-equity-graphs
The longer I play though, the more the two seem to diverge. Is this just short term variance? Is this something that other players see in their charts? Perhaps the Net Expected Won doesn't account for rake? My last 8k hands are shown below for 6max 25NL cash games, with no other games or tournaments and always 100BB buy-in. (queue the violins for sad feelings when viewing this chart :) )
As long as I have your attention: Based on these results I figured I was just sucking at poker while learning, but is there hope that I am just running bad? The Net Expected Won is positive, but I have my doubts that the green line will converge upwards...
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Sept. 6, 2015 | 3:26 a.m.
Yeah, I don't know what the hell compels me to shove. Somebody berate me for being stupid...
Sept. 5, 2015 | 9:18 p.m.
(Had problems getting the hand converted using the RIO hand history webform, kept telling me 'invalid hand')
Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com
CO: $29.92
Hero (BTN): $19.60
SB: $25.00
BB: $9.71
UTG: $43.61
MP: $44.23
SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25
Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has Jh Qs
UTG raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, fold, Hero calls $0.75, fold, fold
Flop: ($2.60, 3 players) Js Ah Qd
UTG bets $2.00, MP calls $2.00, Hero raises to $18.85 and is all-in,
Is this okay? Overly aggressive and maniacal? UTG led out and was called. Perhaps a better line is to raise it up and fold to a shove?
UTG raises to $42.86 and is all-in, (Ruh roh!) MP calls $40.86 (2X Ruh roh!)
Turn: ($107.17, 3 players) 2s
River: ($107.17, 3 players) 5d
Sept. 5, 2015 | 8:39 p.m.
I've been playing 25NL recently, and most of the players I see are 3Betting about 8% of their hands. Most of that range is either a coin flip or dominates 88. I feel like calling is too loose as a basic set mining approach: call preflop and check/fold or check/raise if flop a set. Most of the time the opponents won't stack off, and when they do the stacks aren't deep enough to justify the rarity of hitting a set against the increased cost of the 3bet. Am I just nitting it up here? I'm more inclined to call if I'll be in position, but OOP, I feel like this might be a fold. Too nitty?
Sept. 3, 2015 | 8:37 p.m.
Would love your opinions on how to play a situation that I have come across several times lately and I am probably handling it wrong.
- Assume 6max NL table with unknowns and 100BB stacks. Its folded to you.
Suppose you have pocket 8s in the Hijack and raise it up 3BB. If the BTN 3bets you 9BB, what do you do?
1.1 Now suppose it was the SB who 3Bet. what then?
1.2 How does this situation change if you have 55 or lower?
Surely there is a GTO solution in here somewhere. All comments appreciated. I get that sometimes it will be player dependent, but I'm hoping to at least have a default strategy for facing this situation against an unknown. Thanks again for any help.
Sept. 3, 2015 | 6:05 p.m.
Are there any highly regarded pros playing on sites that accept U.S. players outside of NJ/NV, such as Bovada, America's Cardroom, Black Chip poker?
Sept. 3, 2015 | noon
Specifically, do any high stakes pros grind a living on American facing sites? I see LeatherAss playing 2/4 on ACR. I have tremendous respect for his game, and I know he used to 97-table 5/10, 10/20, and sometimes 25/50 at PokerStars. I guess I just need a hero example that is faced with the same restrictions as most Americans and is crushing at high stakes.
Sept. 1, 2015 | 2:10 p.m.
Perhaps this is a stupid question, but I have been thinking about the feasibility of online poker for Americans, and I wanted to ask your collective opinion about online poker for Americans who are essentially restricted to a few poker sites that are willing to accept customers from the USA. I know most of the famous pros play on Full Tilt or PokerStars. I suppose they live or travel to places where access is not banned? For the great majority of Americans though, we are basically left with Bovada, America's Cardroom, and Juicy Stakes. Perhaps I'm leaving some out?
I think most of us dream about playing high stakes someday, and I wonder if that is even really a possibility for Americans? I very rarely see anything above 3/6 running on America's Cardroom. I quit playing on Bovada because of the anonymous tables, so I can't comment there. Are there any high stakes pros playing on sites that accept American players? Or am I simply dreaming about grinding my way up a ladder that stops at 3/6?
(I should note that 3/6 is still a large game for my bankroll and skill level, and if I were to learn to crush 3/6 I would still be a very happy camper).
*Moved from Other Stuff to General Poker, sorry for duplication
Aug. 31, 2015 | 7:58 p.m.
Thanks for the advice. If I had it to do over again, leading out for 1/2 pot and folding to a raise would be the better play. Villain showed 87o and had flopped the nut straight. I was surprised to see him call a relatively large preflop raise with such a weak hand.
Aug. 4, 2015 | 7:27 p.m.
Maybe this a silly answer, but could you look at your PokerTracker stats on the SB and see what his 4bet % is? If he is only 4betting KK/AA then you might prefer to flat or even fold. If he has some bluffs mixed in, then I guess it depends on how wide the range is. Flat the 4bet unless his range is so wide that a shove is profitable. I'm not claiming to have the right answer though, just wanted to start contributing and thinking through some hands with other people.
Aug. 3, 2015 | 9:26 p.m.
Hi, This is my first post and I'm hoping you guys could tell me a standard line to take here. I'm always unsure how to play KK OOP, so I wanted to check with you and ask for any general advice, as well as discuss a specific hand that is typical of my problem.
1/2NL
Hero in BB: KdKh ($200)
Villain on BTN: standard TAG that is short stacked, not creative. ($150)
Fiver or six limpers, Hero raises to 15. Everone folds except Villain on BTN. Pot is about 40.
Flop is 5s6s7d. Hero checks, Villain bets $25. Hero raises all-in for about 125 more. (Is this overly aggressive? If we were shorter or deeper, would this be obviously incorrect?
My thinking at the time was that Villain has either a smaller pair (88 with open-ended draw,99 with a gutshot ,TT or a flush draw with two overs). Perhaps leading out would have been better? I didn't really want to play a huge pot with just an overpair, and I feel like I was a bit spewey to shove there.
I am happy to post the results, but I don't want to influence the analysis ahead of time. Thank you for your thoughts and advice.
Thank you for the reply. I completely agree that 8k is too small of a sample to infer anything meaningful about win/loss rate. Nonetheless, I find some comfort in knowing these two lines are supposed to converge eventually.
Sept. 6, 2015 | 1:22 p.m.