Raphael Nogueira's avatar

Raphael Nogueira

1519 points

Fold pre. If you are opening on the looser side K9s is prob the worst Kx suited you are opening, but in general is KTs+ so you are pretty close to the bottom of your range to be calling a squeeze OOP and you don't cover anybody to justify calling a bit wider. Floating OOP vs a strong range with no immediate outs seems pretty optimistic.

May 15, 2018 | 1:24 a.m.

Call pre, except with very strong reads that UTG and MP are way too wide. Calling seems pretty bad OOP with no implied odds against the hands we are flipping against. 3bet-folding seems the best as played.

May 15, 2018 | 1:21 a.m.

You are busting on 75-85% range without even cashing. Don't take it too seriously and play as focused as you should play any tournament.

April 19, 2018 | 8:56 p.m.

If you are trying to make him fold AK why do you choose a hand that has an ace on it ?

April 19, 2018 | 8:54 p.m.

nope, mistyped it.

April 4, 2018 | 10:54 a.m.

MP and CO are pretty tight RFI's and BTN if you are not playing the highest stakes you probably can get away opening more as well. You seem to aggro on the preflop battle but your sample size is somewhat small as well. Folding 82% to 3bets specially playing this tight is quite strange.

April 3, 2018 | 9:45 p.m.

with Ks blocker I'd check-call more often since I strength my river range to prevent not having good calling hands against overbets. TT-JJ I expect to bet flop at a extremely high frequency (but I also expect that from his whole range) and probably won't fit on a 1.5x pot range when OOP has a lot of incentive to check-call his Qx more often than betting since it is a card that makes protection less important than [T-6] turn when you hit top pair.

April 3, 2018 | 9:39 p.m.

You have one of the best stack distributions to open since you are getting called at a very low frequency compared to a scenario in which you have deeper stack sizes left to act.
The largest stack at the worst position decreases the overall frequency you are getting played against which makes another point to raising instead of shoving.
The BB is on a stack size that he can't really x/r bluff you as often so it increases your overall equity realisation when you get called.
folding is a large mistake compared to shoving when there is no $EV pressure and shoving is probably a small mistake compared to opening.

April 3, 2018 | 9:35 p.m.

It relies on how good your deep stack game is compared to the field and how much variance are you willing to take. Money in any poker format comes from playing against players that are weaker than you and those are the ones who are more likely to bust on the early levels (on non reentry/rebuy tournaments).

March 22, 2018 | 4:05 p.m.

Probably fold flop right away with a hand that can't really improve considering how frequently his BB defending range has suited hands and how often he leads pot 3 ways without a flush or a set there.

Feb. 23, 2018 | 12:40 p.m.

At which stack depth he had 3bet UTG with A2o ? This is seems a trivial call since we are very poor against his calling range even if he is 3betting wide.

Feb. 22, 2018 | 10:09 p.m.

If I would randomize checking sometimes AQs combos would be the ones with bdfd since BB is leading somewhat often a variety of draws. As played I'd probably call turn since 87o isn't a high frequency raise OTF since it is folding somewhat decent equity against IP betting range, so he is more likely to raise combo draws which plenty still miss on the turn.

Feb. 22, 2018 | 7:10 p.m.

320 playing full schedule days
8% body fat

I see a lot of goals here that are way too vague and I don't think that sums up anything. The more objective you are the more your process will be oriented towards the goal.

Jan. 12, 2018 | 6:10 p.m.

I probably play this spot as pure call pre. The 3bet is too small and probably isn't a sizing that you pick with your bluffs as well. If his range is (AA-QQ) at 50%, (TT-33, 8x7x, Ax4x, 7x6x) at 100% you are a small favourite. Much closer than it looks but you need to have reads to be folding here.

Dec. 26, 2017 | 1:05 p.m.

23bb eff against two players on such a dynamic board betting small doesn't accomplish a whole lot except on very few scenarions which card removal effects are extremely relevant, but this is not the case. It probably is a mixed strategy with different range portions, one which is nut (sets+) and high equity draws that are sizing smaller and one which bets larger is bet-fold draws and hands that really needs protection A8s + overpairs.

Nov. 13, 2017 | 12:34 p.m.

You should not frequently overcall naked 9x on the flop so this decreases a whole lot your 9x turn frequency. This is a board that probably non showdown value fd's probably raise frequently when SB calls and IP is cbetting close to range. If I x-c flop prob just x-f turn against most sizes.

Nov. 9, 2017 | 2:24 p.m.

When OOP checks twice, probably has some sort of hand that is able to win at showdown or is purely giving up. If this is true, then his main flushes are 8sXs and 5sXs considering QTss-Q9ss and similar hand classes work better as bets than checks most of the time. If this is also true, then 5s5x is a very good bluff catcher against balanced strategies that are usually using pair+spade on their river bluffing region. Specially on live games, people get too carried away bluffing those hands and I'd never fold this one on this context.

Nov. 4, 2017 | 8:41 p.m.

Sorry for the delay Odb. I think there is a little difference between equity retention and equity realization. It is possible to overealize your equity on certain spots but it is impossible to over retain your equity.

Suppose that you have AA and there is 6 people left to talk. You have 44% equity (or pot share) against random hands on them. If you want to maximize your equity retention on the spot, you can go all in but it is a sub-optimal strategy. But if you do, you retain your 44% to yourself. To maximize your equity realization you aim to go until the river and see how ranges interact with certain textures and them realize your equity against them.

I saw the over realisation concept on a Chris Kruk video and was very insightful. My two cents on it are that some spots that you play somewhat carefully and have probably a higher check frequency that expected by villain makes your range more disguised and them you can over realize your equity vs them.

Nov. 2, 2017 | 12:55 p.m.

@13.49 top right table.

For you to be folding up to Ac4x on your range, you either consider that you have a lot of stronger bluff catchers or he is underbluffing by a large margin OTR. Against a river sizing that isn't enormous, having Ac and not having an 8 or 9, I consider this a extremely frequent call against the 4-5 most likely strategies that IP usually plays. What assumptions are you using to fold OTR ? And for what reasons are you raising river sometimes instead of calling ? Thanks, this format with PIO on the end is great.

Oct. 24, 2017 | 11:19 p.m.

Pretty sure is a mix =)

I rather have KsQx on my xc range and KcQx on my betting range since KsQx make a better river bluff catcher than KcQx.

Oct. 20, 2017 | 10:04 a.m.

Blinds: t200/t400 (9 Players) MP: 33,586
UTG+1: 33,527
MP+1: 40,421 (Hero)
MP+2: 12,483
CO: 21,415
BN: 30,521
SB: 29,239
BB: 17,623
UTG: 19,342
BB is tantanswe $122 abi, 21% roi, 600k profit. We have played some deep runs in 2015 (after that I had to take a break from poker) so my stats (and notes =p) on his hud might be skewed. My reads are that he is mostly solid but on the aggressive side.
Preflop (600) Hero is MP+1 with X X
3 folds, Hero raises to 1,000, 4 folds, BB calls 600
Flop (2,650) 7 2 T
BB checks, Hero bets 1,200, BB raises to 3,628, Hero calls 2,428
Turn (9,906) 7 2 T K
BB bets 3,425, Hero calls 3,425
River (16,756) 7 2 T K 6
BB bets 9,520 and is all in, Hero calls 9,520

Oct. 19, 2017 | 7:50 p.m.

If villain opens the reasonable ss combos on the 25-30% range, KsXx and AsXx have better removal effects than 5s4s for example and should be ranked higher on bluff catching scenarios. I hadn't the information about his abi at the time and KsQx should perform well as a call against the most likely 5-6 strategies that IP plays on the spot. Maybe he is so tight OTR (given his abi) that I should call only As5x (AsQx usually shoves pre) and hands that beat his value betting region.

Oct. 19, 2017 | 5:46 p.m.

If villain is betting AA-KK, 55, 22 and flushes, any pair with a spade should perform better than any 2x, expect As2x which is the nizzies bluff catcher.

Oct. 19, 2017 | 5:42 p.m.

35bbs deep you can profitably call 88 pre on about almost any situation and shoving may be profitable as well but this is not a spot that you are willing to increase variance by shoving. I can't see why calling 88 instead of shoving will be exploitable. The more protected your range is, the less exploitable you get.

Oct. 18, 2017 | 6:22 p.m.

1st. Easy call.

2nd. 4bet 2x call.

Oct. 18, 2017 | 11:42 a.m.

Blinds: t800/t1,600 (9 Players) BB: 39,750 (Hero)
UTG: 70,397
UTG+1: 49,800
MP: 36,265
MP+1: 164,317
MP+2: 62,113
CO: 21,703
BN: 157,803
SB: 43,112
Villain has 26k games, $10 abi, $44k profit, 22.7% ITM.
Preflop (2,400) Hero is BB with K Q
3 folds, MP+1 raises to 3,200, 4 folds, Hero calls 1,600
Flop (9,000) 2 2 5
Hero checks, MP+1 checks
Turn (9,000) 2 2 5 Q
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 6,030, Hero calls 6,030
River (21,060) 2 2 5 Q 6
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 154,887 and is all in, Hero calls 30,320 and is all in
Final Pot MP+1 wins and shows a flush, Queen high.
BB lost and shows two pair, Queens and Deuces.
MP+1 wins 81,700

Oct. 17, 2017 | 12:16 p.m.

Oct. 17, 2017 | 11:52 a.m.

Minimizing the number of streets to be played aims to increase equity retention. Specially on a board as wet as this one this is a concern and any raise by IP is the same as raising all in, so in IP shoes very few of his draws want to stack off and OOP can exploit that by charging the maximum against his weaker draws.

Oct. 16, 2017 | 8:17 p.m.

The boat frequency for IP should be low to extremely low given how tight MP is opening and his flop check. The merit of betting 25% is to leave room for IP raise with some blockers and force calls from weaker hands which 50% or so doesn't accomplish.

Oct. 16, 2017 | 8:12 p.m.

The more value bets you have proportionally to bluffs, the less you should bet in general.

Oct. 16, 2017 | 8:10 p.m.

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