An Argument Against Posting Yearly Results

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An Argument Against Posting Yearly Results

(Cross-Posted) Full disclosure of winrates has reverse implied odds for the coaches and likely is a fairly weak indicator of coaching strength, because over a yearly sample, we can't statistically distinguish between 1bb and 4bb winrates and bumhunting has an out-sized effective on winrate.

There are three results from showing my yearly results:

1) I have a spectacular winrate. Now everyone is focused on how to reverse engineer my game, like people dissect Linus or RedBaron. This is clearly a net negative for me as a player. Additionally, if the winrate is due to game selection, I will get more competition in my games. This can far offset any income boost I get from coaching.

2) I have a low winrate. Now even after many years of success, players don't want to watch my videos or get private coaching, because I'm a dinosaur. The thing is that every single player will have a bad year at some point in their careers, because a 1bb winrate and 6bb winrate can't be statistically distinguished from each other over most yearly samples. Additionally, game selection has an absurd impact on winrate (but not hourly), so Runitonce would actually be selecting for coaches who mega-bumhunters.

3) I have Goldilocks winrate, it's not too high and its not too low, then people are content with my ability to play and coach, but aren't going to copy my entire approach to poker.

The only scenario where I win is if I hit the Goldilocks zone. Otherwise, its -EV to post.

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