As I Walk Through The Valley of the Shadow of Variance

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As I Walk Through The Valley of the Shadow of Variance

"If you're going through hell, keep going." - Winston Churchill


Prologue: Who's Been Asking Bout Me?

Let's avoid the TL;DR here. 22 years old, planning to start university next year. In the meantime, grinding it up full time. 

Current Network: iPoker


Chapter 1: So You Want To Ride This Roller-Coaster?

I deposited $200 last April, started at 10NL and I've been grinding it up ever since.  As of today, the roll sits at $4659USD.

I ran pretty hot from August to February, in 230k hands crushed 20NL/25NL, moved up to 50NL and ran hot there for a while too. Before August I was BE/slight loser for 70k hands.


What goes up, must come down?

Mid February to April, it all came crashing down. My last bankroll peak was on Feb 11th. As of today, the downswing is about to eclipse the 100k hand mark, and at a new all time low of -4200bb (ish).



Chapter 2: I Even Look Good In A Broken Mirror (Reflections)

After I quit my grind for the day early (once again, due to stop loss), I realized I was actually questioning whether I've actually made any progress as a player at all. Despite all the studying I've done, all the extra hands I've played, could it be possible that I've actually REGRESSED? Have I joined the ranks of the FPS Army? Am I leveling myself into the ground? Am I even a winning player (Oh dear God.)? 

Needless to say, these thoughts are counterproductive, but if you've ever experienced a downswing of any significance I'm sure you know what it's like. It's hard to not let your self-doubt envelope your senses, affect every aspect of your grind, even your life outside poker can be negatively impacted. Like that Blink 182 song: "...I'm so sorry, I cannot sleep, I cannot dream tonight, I need somebody and always, this sick strange darkness comes creeping on so haunting everytime.." Okay. So the quote may be a little depressing, and I might be the first person to ever (mis)apply it to poker.. But the truth is:

Variance is the jealous ex-girlfriend that wants your relationship with poker to fail. And the sooner you embrace the fact that you can't get rid of her, the sooner you can kick your insecurities to the curb and put a ring on it.


So? What are you going to do about it, OsamaBinFoldin?

Well, with the creation of this journal, I will be better able to hold myself accountable. It will be nice to have a place to record my milestones, achievements, suckouts, downswings, you name it. The good, the bad, the in-between. My journey through the stakes. And who better to share this with than a community of poker players? Let's be real, nobody else outside of poker cares. Or even if they do, they wouldn't understand. With help of this community I hope to strengthen my resolve and dedication to improving and never settling for mediocrity.



Chapter 3: The Details In The Fabric

Bankroll Management: I am playing pretty conservatively, as I withdraw a small amount of money from my roll every month as an "allowance". I will take a 10BI shot at 100NL when the following criteria are fulfilled:

1. My BR is at 6.5k

2. My WR at 50NL is better than 0.5bb/100 (It's currently sitting at a beautiful -2.2bb/100)

3. I have played 200k hands at 50NL


Monthly Goals (Starting From May):

1. 80 Hours Min. Playing NLH

2. 20 Hours Min. Playing PLO (I'm starting out at PLO4, don't laugh)

2. 1 NLH video series studied

3. 1 PLO video series studied

4. Try to comment on (with thoughtful, insightful analysis, non-2p2 style) or post at least 1 hand per day on RIO forums. This is something I need to be more diligent in doing.



Thank you for taking the time to read this, hopefully you've been somewhat entertained. May the poker gods bless us with rungood and an everlasting stream of the nuts.


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