UTG3: bemyguestbud: 27060
LJ: BoysDontCRAI: 20478
HJ: $oro-winner is sitting out: 19100
CO: LarsMoorman1: 11675
BN: JohnH1: 23403
SB: thebalnave: 31569
BB: Heroinher0n: 18920
UTG: rim-k13 is sitting out: 19130
UTG1: junkygirl760: 24921
Jon Doe folds, junkygirl760 folds, bemyguestbud folds, BoysDontCRAI raises to 240, Jon Doe folds, LarsMoorman1 calls 240, JohnH1 folds, thebalnave folds, Heroinher0n calls 160
I know my turn sizing is way too small here :(
Anyway, I have the main villain fish tagged, he's 16/11/2 over 200+ hands and generally a passive stationey type. Not a massive whale or anything, just generally a poor passive player in my books - some margin of error there I guess since the hand sample is mainly from some other stuff. This tournament is like the softest 500 of the year, has endless levels and 20k starting stack. I have done nothing and villain has mainly bled his chips doing terrible calldowns. He has very low aggression stats for everything postflop. I don't have much on him beyond this, it's really early. The other guy is a some kind of reg I think, at least not someone either of us would view as a fish which I think is kind of important. Also please note villain's stack.
So I guess my question is mainly which button to press, I timebanked a lot here. I don't think he has AA here ever, and I think TT should be heavily discounted (I have a blocker, he sometimes 3bets, and would often just flat turn imo?). I think 77 fits this line perfectly. I think he always peels 86s here pre and miiiight float the flop (he has shown tendencies to be a bit floaty and flat wide pre this deep). Not sure if he can have J8s. I don't think he's the type to do this with KQ QJ KJ. I don't think he ever ever has AK-AJ here.
I guess this comes down to how often he has A7 and A9 against the times when he has 77 or a straight? I think I could have made this a lot easier for myself by just betting a legit amount on the turn, and now I just hate life.
As a bonus question, let's imagine we had 20k stacks (and I still made this terribly small turn bet somehow). Would it then be a decent idea to call with the plan of calling a bet up to like 55% pot on brick rivers and fold to big bets, since I think that way we could still beat his two pairs with which he'd valuecut himself (I think he's bad enough to often raise the turn with them) but couldn't really bet huge otr with since I'm always folding? With these stacks I don't see any point in flatting since we'd only have 80% pot or so behind OTR.