the math behind HU chip chop deal

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

the math behind HU chip chop deal

Hello everyone,
I would like someone to comment on my thoughts on a deal friend of mine made last night, when he chopped bigger 33 in HU.

Official prizes:
1st: $6800
2nd: $5000

The chip chop deal was made as follows:
1st: ~$6240
2nd: ~$5560

So my questions are:
1, I believe that there is no more ICM considerations, since we are effectively playing HU SNG for the difference between first and second right? Its kinda winner takes it all situation going on.

2, Even though they were kinda shallow (Im waiting for my friend to tell me their exact stack depths as i don't remember that perfectly, but they were somewhat shallow)

I came with an idea, that if we take $560 from the $1800 difference, we are practically saying, that we are not going to win that HU more than ~31% of the time? (Because 560/1800 = 0,3111) .. What do you think of that, is it right to think about that this way?
If not, please elaborate why.
If it is, what do you think of it? Should we take it anyway?

Im still not sure if i like it or not, I believe that the best way would be to chop some of the money but keep playing for some money as well and that we are surrendering more $ than we should.

3, What do you think of this deal in general (I'll post the stack sizes ASAP), villain was very solid, hero is solid as well, but not really HU specialist :D

My line of action in his seat woud be to try to negotiate the kind of deal i mentioned above (chop some, but left something to play), or try to double up and then chop it 1:1
4, What would be your approach, and what are your thoughts on deals or deal negotiations in general?

Do you think we should take it, since villain has chip advantage and may have edge as well?

Anyway any comment would be nice, please correct me if my approach is flawed, also, please correct any of my grammar mistakes, im not native speaker but trying my best to get better, so I would actually welcome here some sort of grammar nazi haha :D

Thanks in advance.

**e: Hero was 27bb deep. Villain had 60bb

ee: okej, so hero just corrected me and said that he deff. had edge over villain so what do you guys think :D

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