100NL rush semi-interesting turn spot

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

100NL rush semi-interesting turn spot

BN: $45.20
SB: $257.30
BB: $168.10
UTG: $150.70
HJ: $201.25
CO: $254.65 (Hero)
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A 4
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $3, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $2
Flop ($6.50) J 9 8 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.50, BB raises to $16.50, Hero calls $12
Turn ($39.50) J 9 8 4 (2 Players)
BB checks
I have about 1000 hands from 1/2 on villain, I assume he's playing fairly similar at these stakes. He runs 20/16/7 (3.73 aggro factor...is that high?), his fold BB to steal is 81% (which also seems high), raises a decent amount of cbets IP, but never OOP (10 opporunities though...small sample).

Betting this flop seems pretty standard because we can bet/call as he might check raise combo draws with worse fds and 150bbs behind. Additionally, I don't bet my air basically ever on a board that hits a BB peeling range this hard, so I assume betting my strong draws should balance me a bit.

His checkraise doesn't have to be extremely strong, but this isn't K9x or something, this is a very coordinated board and I doubt that 3betting flop without signficant history seems bad because I can't imagine getting it in as a favourite ever here.

So I called, expecting to hit a flush but I didnt, which was lame. So he checks the turn and I have an interesting decision. I felt like betting the turn was okay because he's maybe just giving up, and he basically never check raises twice. But at the same time I was very confused and felt like check was a bit fishy so I also thought checking would be alright to allow myself to realize my equity and possibly bluff river if he checks again.

I had a hard time constructing a checkraising range for him that check folds this turn, but I suppose he could have KdQx kinda stuff, but he should know my cbetting range for this flop is pretty strong. That being said, my flop range is seemingly draw/weakish made hand heavy (AJ,KJ) so barrelling off in his shoes seems like a decent option.


Oh I hit bottom pair which is kind of interesting only because I increase my river outs vs his semi-bluffs, but doesn't help me currently vs JT, T9, T8 type hands.

Thoughts?

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