SB: $10.15 (Hero)
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $0.30, BN folds, Hero calls $0.25, BB folds
In my mind I feel as though a bet will not have any worse hands call. All Tx should be folding here, especially after the flop check-raise turns a large amount of my range into a flush draw. I doubt Qx would call here, as the only likely combo remaining in villains range is QT which will likely be folding anyway with the last spade; meaning the only combos calling here are made flushes.
However a check/call allows for villain to fire his Tx here that he feels is good, but also along with his now made flush combos. There is also a small possibility he could be turning a weirdly played A4s, 43s, or 54s into a bluff but I think this is unlikely.
I did make this plan in my mind as I checked the river, but upon seeing the sizing of villain's river bet I got a little worried. I'm not a very experienced poker player, but the sizing just reeked of value to me. So I tanked and talked it over with my friend, and just as we were about to call I timed out and folded.
Upon review however, it would appear as though I should have called regardless. Giving villain a river betting range of AA-TT,55-44,ATo,AKs-A4s,KTs,QTs,JTs (with suited non-ten hands being spades), results in 71% equity for my hand if he is making this bet every time. Getting odds of 2.51:1 on the river means we need to be winning at least 28% of the time for this call to be profitable, so I'm thinking perhaps it was a large leak to fold?
Let me know what you think :)