2/4 river check or bet spot

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

2/4 river check or bet spot

HJ: $404.30
CO: $291
BN: $494 (Hero)
SB: $630.20
BB: $307.40
UTG: $825.10
Preflop ($6.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt T J
UTG folds, HJ raises to $12, CO folds, Hero calls $12, SB folds, BB folds
Flop ($30.00) 9 3 J (2 Players)
HJ bets $20, Hero calls $20
Turn ($70.00) 9 3 J Q (2 Players)
HJ bets $45, Hero calls $45
River ($160.00) 9 3 J Q A (2 Players)
HJ checks
Villain is a reg, no significant history. My image is tight-good or perhaps tight-winning (I guess there's a difference). Although the title of the post focuses on the river, happy to entertain different lines on any street. I would consider a raise OTF more if villain were in later position and also perhaps with certain player-dynamics.

As played I feel like I have to bet OTR. I would like to have a betting range here and I think the bet in a vacuum achieves folding out KQ, KJ, QT, JT. This villain may even fold TP vs me*. If you do bet, how much do you bet? If you don't bet, why not?

*Before someone says "if villain is folding TP vs you here you're doing something else wrong", then I might agree with you, but I think in this instance he would fold because my image was v tight over a small sample size and he seemed to me like the type to not "call and find out" when the sample size was small. That may be poor reasoning on my part.

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