50/50 on a cB

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

50/50 on a cB

This was a very interesting spot for me

10NL full ring
HERO 400somthing bb, cut off, AcJc
Villain 95ish effective, high jack

fff, V 30, H 10.5, fff, V call

pot 22.5
Kc 8c 6d

V check, HERO ????

Here is the thing; exploiting this V is not a bad idea as he has not been playing well (only 20 hands). Just a couple hands previous he donked into me OTT on an 8hi double suited super connected board and then led, called all in and lost when the 8 of front door came in. He will pay out.

So I'm 50/50 on the cBet and here is why:
Value target range: All the draws, Worse Ax
Semi/Bluff/Thin value range: 6x, 8x, 77, 99-QQ (it would seem a lot of this is calling)
Kx is never folding and might earn me the X/Jam OTF so I think I can play well vs that.

But I'm really thinking that a cB will buy me a "free" river and keep me out of a tough spot.
Theory I think I should bet medium to large?
Exploitation I can bet smaller or even check and still get it in later?
I this even true?

Really I want to know what factors you would be considering in this spot.
And maybe someone has one of those crispy solvers?
TY, TY, TY
(bonus points: what are my bluffs here in a 3Bet pot?)

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